by Mark Rothstein
for BetUS.com
So, who?s going to win the big game?
Good question. After one of the most exciting World Cup tournaments ever, we?re left with two teams who are playing outstanding soccer at just about every level. Italy and France are both athletically gifted at both ends of the pitch, with brilliant coaching and a strong mix of veterans and younger players. But Italy might have fresher legs and better goaltending, which makes them slight favorites at the betting window. Italy is priced at ?140 against the spread (as a pick ?em; that is, the spread is zero goals), with France playing le p?tit chien at +120. Using the three-results betting line, we have Italy at +155, France at +190 and a draw after regulation plus injury time at +180. Anything can happen, it seems.
With that in mind, let?s take a look instead at a few proposition bets for Sunday?s final. Some of the props on tap (first team?s goalkeeper to touch the ball, first team to have a throw-in) are essentially coin flips, but others present opportunities for handicappers to show their stuff.
Team to receive first booking
As excellent as the soccer has been in Germany, it hasn?t come without heroic doses of both play-acting and the kind of goonery that would make the Hanson Brothers jealous. On this front, the two teams appear to be even; Italy has collected 10 yellow cards and two red cards thus far, while France has 13 yellow cards. But if Italy is more likely to carry the attack, France is more likely to come up with a tackle from behind or some other bookable offense.
Over/Under
The regular total for Sunday?s final is 1.5 goals (-120 on either side). Given the scarcity of goals in the later stages of the tournament, and the staunch defenses of both France and Italy, it?s not surprising the total has dipped so low. But you can pay extra to jack up the total even higher. You can go under 2.5 goals at ?275, under 3.5 goals at ?1200 and even under 4.5 goals at a fat ?10000. How deep are your pockets?
Correct score
The odds list suggests that goals are indeed going to be in short supply Sunday. The exact scores (after regulation and stoppage time) with the shortest odds are a scoreless draw and a 1-0 win for Italy, each at +400. A 1-1 draw is next on the list at +450, then a 1-0 victory for France at +500. If you believe in a really strict form of history repeating itself, France and Italy played to a 0-0 draw in the 1998 quarterfinals before France won on penalties.
First goalscorer
This popular prop is a little different from the others in that it only covers the first 90 minutes ? no stoppage time included, and own goals don?t count, either. It also might not be so popular with French fans, because all the players listed are from Italy. Luca Toni leads the way at +500. Italy has scored 11 goals at the World Cup, and Toni has two of them. The man with the longest odds among the remaining nine scorers is Fabio Grosso at +4000.
Time of first goal
When is someone going to find the back of the onion bag? Up to and including the 33rd minute is priced at +110, afterward is +120, and no goals in regulation plus injury time is +400 (matching the ?Correct score? offering). Note that Zinedine Zidane?s penalty goal in the semifinal against Portugal came in the 33rd minute. Whether or not this is an arbitrary cutoff point for this prop (it may move as the betting public pours in its money), the value pick has to be the ?afterward? option. That covers nearly twice as much playing time, at longer odds to boot.
For World Cup odds click here.
for BetUS.com
So, who?s going to win the big game?
Good question. After one of the most exciting World Cup tournaments ever, we?re left with two teams who are playing outstanding soccer at just about every level. Italy and France are both athletically gifted at both ends of the pitch, with brilliant coaching and a strong mix of veterans and younger players. But Italy might have fresher legs and better goaltending, which makes them slight favorites at the betting window. Italy is priced at ?140 against the spread (as a pick ?em; that is, the spread is zero goals), with France playing le p?tit chien at +120. Using the three-results betting line, we have Italy at +155, France at +190 and a draw after regulation plus injury time at +180. Anything can happen, it seems.
With that in mind, let?s take a look instead at a few proposition bets for Sunday?s final. Some of the props on tap (first team?s goalkeeper to touch the ball, first team to have a throw-in) are essentially coin flips, but others present opportunities for handicappers to show their stuff.
Team to receive first booking
As excellent as the soccer has been in Germany, it hasn?t come without heroic doses of both play-acting and the kind of goonery that would make the Hanson Brothers jealous. On this front, the two teams appear to be even; Italy has collected 10 yellow cards and two red cards thus far, while France has 13 yellow cards. But if Italy is more likely to carry the attack, France is more likely to come up with a tackle from behind or some other bookable offense.
Over/Under
The regular total for Sunday?s final is 1.5 goals (-120 on either side). Given the scarcity of goals in the later stages of the tournament, and the staunch defenses of both France and Italy, it?s not surprising the total has dipped so low. But you can pay extra to jack up the total even higher. You can go under 2.5 goals at ?275, under 3.5 goals at ?1200 and even under 4.5 goals at a fat ?10000. How deep are your pockets?
Correct score
The odds list suggests that goals are indeed going to be in short supply Sunday. The exact scores (after regulation and stoppage time) with the shortest odds are a scoreless draw and a 1-0 win for Italy, each at +400. A 1-1 draw is next on the list at +450, then a 1-0 victory for France at +500. If you believe in a really strict form of history repeating itself, France and Italy played to a 0-0 draw in the 1998 quarterfinals before France won on penalties.
First goalscorer
This popular prop is a little different from the others in that it only covers the first 90 minutes ? no stoppage time included, and own goals don?t count, either. It also might not be so popular with French fans, because all the players listed are from Italy. Luca Toni leads the way at +500. Italy has scored 11 goals at the World Cup, and Toni has two of them. The man with the longest odds among the remaining nine scorers is Fabio Grosso at +4000.
Time of first goal
When is someone going to find the back of the onion bag? Up to and including the 33rd minute is priced at +110, afterward is +120, and no goals in regulation plus injury time is +400 (matching the ?Correct score? offering). Note that Zinedine Zidane?s penalty goal in the semifinal against Portugal came in the 33rd minute. Whether or not this is an arbitrary cutoff point for this prop (it may move as the betting public pours in its money), the value pick has to be the ?afterward? option. That covers nearly twice as much playing time, at longer odds to boot.
For World Cup odds click here.
