After reading Nolan Dalla's breakdown of The Goldman Experiment, I thought I would do something similar with the Hilton data. I do not know the logistics of how someone gets involved in the Hilton contest, so if someone could help out there it might add or detract from the weight given to the results. This is only 2 weeks of data, so take that for what it is worth. I broke down the data two ways. One just by Hilton's ranking or # of plays and then I also added games with a better than 70% differential in the picking of the side.
Example from Week 2 would be the the Miami v. Indianapolis game.
1. Miami was the number 1 rank in the Hilton contest last week with 90 players selecting the Dolphins -2.5.
2. There was a total 104 plays on the game in the Hilton Contest. The Dolphins had 90 plays (86.53%) and the Colts had just 14 plays (13.46%).
So this game would have 2 data points to look at by ranking and by <70% differential and then combining that data.
*I included all of the games where there were ties in the ranking. So there might be 6 plays in the top 5. I know I probably should have bumped the last one out, but I didn't.
Here is what I found
Overall
Compiled 2002 NFL Hilton Contest Results through week 2
Top 5 Overall Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
7 4 63.64%
Top 10 Overall Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 6 50.00%
Over 70% Differential Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 3 66.67%
Over 70% in Top 10 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 2 75.00%
Over 70% in Top 5 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 2 75.00%
_______________________________
Week 1
Top 5 Week 1 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
2 3 40.00%
Top 10 Week 1 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
4 6 40.00%
Over 70% Differential Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
1 3 25.00%
Over 70% in Top 10 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
1 2 33.33%
Over 70% in Top 5 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
1 2 33.33%
----------------------------------------------------
Week 2
Top 5 Week 2 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 1 83.33%
Top 10 Week 2 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
10 2 83.33%
Over 70% Differential Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 0 100.00%
Over 70% in Top 10 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 0 100.00%
Over 70% in Top 5 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 0 100.00%
- Week 1 was a little rough, but Week 2 more than made up for the tough start.
Hope this information helps!!!
Example from Week 2 would be the the Miami v. Indianapolis game.
1. Miami was the number 1 rank in the Hilton contest last week with 90 players selecting the Dolphins -2.5.
2. There was a total 104 plays on the game in the Hilton Contest. The Dolphins had 90 plays (86.53%) and the Colts had just 14 plays (13.46%).
So this game would have 2 data points to look at by ranking and by <70% differential and then combining that data.
*I included all of the games where there were ties in the ranking. So there might be 6 plays in the top 5. I know I probably should have bumped the last one out, but I didn't.
Here is what I found
Overall
Compiled 2002 NFL Hilton Contest Results through week 2
Top 5 Overall Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
7 4 63.64%
Top 10 Overall Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 6 50.00%
Over 70% Differential Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 3 66.67%
Over 70% in Top 10 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 2 75.00%
Over 70% in Top 5 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
6 2 75.00%
_______________________________
Week 1
Top 5 Week 1 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
2 3 40.00%
Top 10 Week 1 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
4 6 40.00%
Over 70% Differential Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
1 3 25.00%
Over 70% in Top 10 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
1 2 33.33%
Over 70% in Top 5 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
1 2 33.33%
----------------------------------------------------
Week 2
Top 5 Week 2 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 1 83.33%
Top 10 Week 2 Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
10 2 83.33%
Over 70% Differential Record (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 0 100.00%
Over 70% in Top 10 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 0 100.00%
Over 70% in Top 5 (includes rank ties)
Win Loss Winning %
5 0 100.00%
- Week 1 was a little rough, but Week 2 more than made up for the tough start.
Hope this information helps!!!
