Hitting the Spot - Playoff Edition

[johnnyonthespot]

The NFL playoffs are a different animal than the regular season and I will treat them as such. Had a modestly successful NFL season at +9 units, but none of that matters now as we're back to 0-0.

Going with these in wild-card weekend:

Cincinnati/Houston Under 38 (2 units) - Both teams sport offenses that rely on a run-game to get things going and defenses that specialize in stopping the run. Unless the Ds go nuts with turnovers. just don't see offenses moving the ball a lot in this one. First game featuring these teams hit 39 but it took a TD pass on literally the last play of the game to hit that. I expect the familiarity with each other to help the Ds more than the Os. This has the look of a 17-14 type of game.

Saints/Lions Over 59 (1 unit) - Another rematch game. The first meeting only hit 48 but that was because Detroit couldn't get it going in the 2nd half and Brees and the Saints called off the dogs. Don't think that happens here. Detroit pass D is as porous as it comes (just ask Matt Flynn) and Brees will take advantage all day long.

Saints -11 (1 unit) - Really don't like to give up this many in the playoffs but I think it's warranted here. I've said all year that Detroit is a good but immature team and it will show up here. Also a bit of a hedge because I am supremely confident that the Saints can get to 35 and as long as that happens I'm guaranteed either the cover or the over.

Broncos +9 (2 units) - OK, so I completely suck at games involving the Broncos this year. I think I'm something like 1-5. Well at least if I lose this one it will be the last time I can get Tebowed this year. Make no mistake about it, Broncos will lose this game. But Steelers are in absolutely no position to be laying 9 points on the road to anybody. You've got no Mendenhall, both Polamlau and Roethlisberger still gimpy and recovering, and now your starting safety is sitting out due to the altitude. Take a look at the last 4 Steeler road games: 4 point victory at Cleveland, 17-point loss at San Fran, 4 point win at KC, and 7 point win at Cinncy. None of that screams to me that they will blow the Broncos out. Denver has been in trouble against teams like Detroit and New England who know how to score and keep pouring it on. That's not the Steelers style at all. They just grind you down. They will do so again, but the Denver D will let Tebow hang around. Steelers by 6.

Still looking at the Falcons/Giants game.

BOL to all!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Cinncy +4 (1 unit) - The Bengals have burned me more times than not this year, so maybe I'm just a glutton for punishment. But in a game where I believe that points will be at a premium getting 4 points feels like 10. Texans also come into this game losers of 3 straight. It's true they had little to play for the last 2 weeks but still I believe there is such a thing as momentum. Both these teams are hard to figure right now. Neither has any real playoff experience (and that's literally true for the Texans) so there's no advantage there. But the winner of this game could yet do some damage in the playoffs. I expect it to be the Texans, but only by a FG and I certainly don't discount the possibility of Cinncy taking it.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Well that's a heck of a start. Really feel like the under was the right start here. A great pick-6 and then the Bengals D just quitting on that Foster run was disgraceful. In fact, "disgraceful" pretty much describes the Bengals in general from the moment of that pick-6 on. Just completely lost all momentum and never got it back.

Hoping for better fortunes in the night cap.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding:

Saints Team Total Over 34.5 (-143) for 1 unit. Pretty self-explanatory. Saints have averaged over 45 points in their last 4 home games. Should get there again today.

 

[The Jets Fan]

I see a NO pick-6 and Brees being Brees. They remember last year. saints by 21.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Boy oh boy is this ever shaping up to be a real winner of an evening . . .

Going all-in with:

Saints -7 2H -135 (2 units) - Just can't believe Saints will actually lose this game. Think that the Saints have psyched themselves out too much. Like they are intentionally trying to drive slowly to keep the Lions O off the field. Not good for a rhythm offense. First possession of the 2nd half will be huge.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Record after day 1:
4-2 +1 Unit

WHEW!

Now THAT is how you turn a day around! Looked dead in the water at halftime but rallyed for a clean sweep on the night game! Hoping for more continued success tomorrow.

BOL everyone!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Been looking at the early game for a while now and going with this:

Atlanta +140 (1 unit) - This one is tough because I do think the Giants are playing their best ball of the year right now. But of course it looked like that once already this year after they won at New England and they then proceeded to lose the next 4 in a row. Speaking of the New England game, that turns out to be the one and only victory the Giants got this year over a team who ended with a winning record (though they do have 4 victories over teams who ended 8-8). The Falcons only have 2 (Tenn and Detroit, to go along with 2 more over 8-8 teams) but more importantly since week 3 their only 4 losses have been against division winners (Green Bay, Houston, and two against New Orleans) while the Giants have had a couple clunkers at home against Washington and Philly. All in all I think that this game is a coin flip, so the fact that I can get +140 on a 50/50 prop is worth it to me.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
4-3 Even

Another game that was a tale of two halves. Atlanta was dominating the Giants and had taken the crowd out of it, then couldn't convert some short-yardage plays and all of a sudden they are getting smoked.

So we're back at square one.

Already jumping on:

Giants/Packers Over 51.5 (2 units) - 73 points scored when these 2 teams met up 5 weeks ago. Don't expect that many again, but definitely not expecting more than 20 points less either. Think this over will rise to about 54 over the week so I wanted to hit it early.

Alright guess it's Tebow Time!

(I just threw up in my mouth a little bit)

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Adding one more:

Denver Team Total Over 13 (1 unit) - Yes Tebow is inept. Just thinking he's not quite THAT inept. Hoping the D gives him at least 1 short field.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
6-3 Even +2.7 units

OK so apparently I just need to take all the early games off and only bet the later games.

Well even though I backed Denver and the team total I would be lying if I said I saw THAT coming. Congrats to Denver, though I doubt they'll fare very well up in New England next week.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Going with these for the divisional round:

San Fran +3.5 (2 units) - Feeling all kinds of Saints love here and everywhere else. And the rationale almost always starts the same way, "I know the Saints aren't quite the same team away from home, but . . .". Well, I can't dismiss that sentiment, because it's true and pivotal. The Saints are 5-3 on the road, and that includes losses to a 4-win Bucs team and a 2-win Rams team. They won exactly 2 road games by more than a FG all year - against the Jags and Titans. In the Titans game (a 5-point win), they didn't score a TD until the 4th quarter and the Titans had a first and goal from the 5 yard line in the last 30 seconds but they weren't able to punch it in. I just don't see anything there that gives me confidence that the Saints are justified in being more than a FG favorite on the road to one of the best defenses in the league. The 49ers, on the other hand, are 7-1 at home this season. The lone loss was a very rare 4th-quarter collapse against Dallas the 2nd week of the season. Yes, San Fran has some problems putting up points and that is a definite concern, but the Saints are hardly a shut-down D. They are ranked 12th against the run but I believe that's a bit misleading. They rank 30th against the pass, so teams choose to run on them less than normal. I think Gore and Kendall find room, and that Harbaugh will have the gameplan of taking as much time off the clock as possible while on offense. As long as they can run for 3-4 yards, I expect them to keep grinding it out. Honestly, this should be a great game and I can see it going either way. The one thing I CAN'T see, though, is the Saints just coming in and running up the score on the 49ers. Thinking that this is a FG-win either way, so give me the points.

Denver/NE Over 50 (1 unit) - Would have gotten this one in earlier this week, but needed to make sure it wasn't going to be a blizzard in Foxboro. Well, it'll be cold but clear tonight. These two teams got together in Denver a month ago and put up 64 points. Don't think it will be quite that high this time, but can't see it going that much less. Pats have the worst pass D in the country, and we all know that Brady and co will put up their share of points. I'm seeing a 34-24 type of game, although I could easily see 41-17 or 31-27 (which is why I'm not taking a side here; at least not yet).

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
8-3 Even +5.4 units

Woo hoo!

Let's keep it going tomorrow! Gonna step outside of my comfort zone tomorrow and going with a couple of teasers. With both games tomorrow being rematches I'm expecting 2 good games that will be closer than most people probably think. With that in mind I'm going with this:

6.5-point teaser 2 units at -110:
Ravens -2.5
Packers -2.5

This one almost seems too easy; nevertheless it is definitely the two most likely outcomes tomorrow.

5.5-point 3 team teaser: 1 unit at +185
Texans +14.5
Giants +14.5
Giants/Packers Over 47.5

I really didn't like that 9-point line for either game, especially at -135. I've seen two many games that were close the whole way and then one late TO or big run and suddenly it's up to 10. I like both faves to win but win close, so I love the 2-TD cushion in each game.

Only single play for tomorrow is 2 units on Giants/Packers Over 51.5 posted earlier. As expected, the line has risen since I got the bet down last Sunday. 53 now and won't be surprised to see it hit 53.5 or 54 by gametime.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Giants/Packers Total now up to 54. Too bad I couldn't make a bet on what the final line would be. :mj07:

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Couldn't ask for better than that in the early game! Now let's bring both of these and the Over home!

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Hail Mary sure makes that Over look a lot better.

Adding:

Packers -10 2H at +110 (1 unit) - Still think that Rodgers and the Pack come back and win this game.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
9-4 +6.2 units
Teasers: 1-1 -.15 units
Total +6.05 units

Every once in a while I fall in love with teasers; then I remember why I don't play them. Oh well; can't complain too much about a winning day!

Early leans next week are Ravens +9 and San Fran -1 (Go Harbaughs!) but need to think more about it.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Going with these in the championship round:

Ravens +7.5 (1 unit): If there's one thing this weekend proved it's that team's which rely on their offense to carry them are in real trouble when that offense stumbles and/or turns the ball over. New England is just such a team and I think this is the week it bites them. Big wild card in this is Flacco, but if there is one team he should have success against it's the Pats. They need to avoid falling behind big early like the Broncos did; that will force Flacco to have to be more aggressive and that's when TOs happen. Bottom line is that I have to take the much better defense and the points even though it means taking the much worse offense.

49ers -2 at -125 (1 unit): These two are certainly no strangers to meeting in the playoffs, and this should be a great game. Both teams are playing very well of late; I think the difference will be San Fran's D holding the Giants O a lot better than the Pack did yesterday. As in the Ravens game, the wild card is Alex Smith; if he plays like he did against the Saints the Niners will be just fine.

Looking hard at the under in this game too, but don't know if I'm going to pull the trigger or not. 6 of 8 playoff games have gone over thus far.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Updated record:
10-5 +6.1 units
Teasers: 1-1 -.15 units
Total +5.95 units

Almost got the sweep yesterday, but so it goes. Really the Giants/Niners game was a toss-up so I should have just laid off, or I should have listened to myself on the under.

Don't need to look too hard for the Super Bowl pick. Going with:

Giants ML +125 (5 units) - 5 units is the biggest play that I make. I just do not see this one going any other way. For one thing, Patriots are just not that good. You run down their regular-season schedule and they did not beat one (NOT ONE!) team who ended the season with a winning record. Now, to be fair they did get 7 wins over teams that ended 8-8, so I'm not saying they are bad by any stretch of the imagination. I just think they are the epitome of a solid but unspectacular team - they can beat the bad and mediocre teams but they have problems against the very good ones. I think they got very lucky in drawing the Broncos in the playoffs and then got VERY lucky to sneak out yesterday with a win. And say what you want, but Brady just doesn't look right. I think he's hurt and it's more than 2 weeks rest is going to cure. The Pats defense looks as bad as ever to me. The Giants, on the other hand, are playing great on both sides of the ball, and Eli Manning is just a flat out gamer. He's now 7-3 in playoff games, including 1-0 in Super Bowls (which, of course, came against Brady).

It's true that Brady is now 17-5 in playoff games, but for one thing (as I said before) he just doesn't look right to me right now. For another, a lot of those wins came when he was playing on a teams that were just a whole heck of a lot better than their opposition. Other than his first Super Bowl, when the Pats shocked the world and beat Warner and the Rams, they have been big favorites in the other 3 Super Bowls. That's not taking anything away from him, but it's simply not the case this year. Pats started out as 3.5 point faves and a ML of +145. Now it's down to 3 at -120 and a ML of +125. I'm thinking it will be close to a pick by gametime. Vegas is expecting the public to blindly back Brady and the revenge factor (both for earlier this year and the other SB) but so far the public isn't biting. I just think the Giants are the more complete team plain and simple, so getting the +125 is just a gift and I'm going to snatch it now.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Final postseason record:
11-5 +10.6 units
Teasers: 1-1 -.15 units
Total +10.45 units

That's the way to end the season! Not quite the way I had it capped but a very well-played and exciting game that came out on my side.

BOL to everyone in college hoops and baseball and I'll see you all next season!