That's a lot of links AV
My preview:
One of the oldest national championships in the world can boast a very impressive roll-call of past winners: Gene Sarazen, Gary Player (7 times), Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus (6 times) and of course Greg Norman (5 times). But with the exception of Lee Westwood who beat Greg Norman in a playoff in 1997, the last six Opens have been won by home players. There seems little reason for that to change this week with a reduced international element this year.
Kingston Heath was ranked the 2nd best course in Australia by the Australian Golf Digest earlier this year, behind Royal Melbourne. But the Heath is longer having been recently lengthened by just over 100 meters and its fairways are narrower where the pros are expected to hit their drives. Nevertheless, the course only covers some 6336 metres, which is less than 7000 yards, and so is still short by European or PGA Tour standards. Length is not a great advantage on this course, but accuracy off the tee and the ability to hit to the 'correct' side of the pin. The greens were berated in 1995 when this event was last staged here for being too fast. They will again be fast, so good putting, but more importantly accurate iron play and sensible course management will determine the winner.
The favorites are Allenby & Appleby this week, but are passed over in value terms. They are not worth single figure odds. Instead, even though small sample bias through up David Podlich and Brett Ogle as the top two in the Tour-tips rankings (available @ 100/1 and 80/1 respectively), this week's three outright selections are Adam Scott, Peter O'Malley and Pierre Fulke.
Scott is not an accuracy player - he ranked 50th on the European Tour in driving accuracy and 3rd in driving distance this year - but he the biggest emerging talent from Australia and has already had a number of top-10 finishes in his maiden year on the European Tour. Coached by Butch Harmon and with a swing almost identical to Tiger's, he looks as though he has/will have the game to play on any course. Paired with Aaron Baddeley, last year's winner as an amateur, and Brad Lamb, Scott will dominate this group of former amateur champions and show how much further he has come since turning professional.
Peter O'Malley is much more in the mould of the successful player on this course. 7th in driving accuracy and 15th in greens in regulation in an otherwise relatively unsuccessful European campaign is ideal this week. He had a respectable 12th place finish last week with his driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats showing no dip from their impressive season average and he has finished 7th and 11th in this event in the last two years. He should go close again.
Finally, an 'outsider' is considered for at least a place finish. Fulke was a very impressive winner of the Volvo Masters three weeks ago, his 2nd win of the year. It continued a long run of top-20 finishes. Not a frequent visitor to Australian shores, but he has the ideal game for this course and his confidence is as high as it has ever been. He was ranked 5th in the European Tour stats this year for driving accuracy and 3rd in putting average, and while his season average for greens in regulation was enough for only a top-50 position, he has been averaging 73% of greens hit in regulation in the past two months, enough for a top-10 position in that category. A proven winner on top of his game and with a week's rest, he should be the top European.
Outright plays:
Adam Scott to win e/w 25/1 @
Surrey or
Paddy Power
Peter O'Malley to win e/w 40/1 @
Paddy Power
Pierre Fulke to win e/w 50/1 @
DAS
