Holding a ticket on PSG to win the Champions league

[redsfann]

@ +550


10 units to win 55 units.


Anyone think I should hedge this bet now? Wait for halftime to see how the game is playing out?

Any and all takes are much appreciated...:toast:


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[flapjack]

@ +550


10 units to win 55 units.


Anyone think I should hedge this bet now? Wait for halftime to see how the game is playing out?

Any and all takes are much appreciated...:toast:


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I?d hedge. The way these teams score, by halftime that option might not be available. Maybe just hedge enough to cover your investment before the game and see how things go? Or, just let it rip. I think Bayern should win, but this could be a wild, high scoring back and forth slugfest and you have great odds.

 

[BASON]

Hey Redsfann. Nice ticket you have there.

Hedging is always tough because it means very different things to different people and it is especially tough in soccer because of the three way lines. If I take a step back and simply look at it from a gambling perspective, this is what I would do.

I have 10 units at risk to win 55. At a minimum I would try to make sure I at least win back my 10 units, but the only way to do this and purely have it hedged is to bet Bayern to win the trophy in case the game is a draw. That line is -180 right now, so you have to bet 18 units to lock in at least getting your money back in case PSG loses. This is the only pure hedge and it looks like you could lock in 19/20 units with this strategy. You can mess around with Bayern Ev and the Draw +300, but you have to risk more units to get where you want to be and not worth it in my opinion.

There has been 5 draws in the finals in the last 20 years. But there has not been one draw so far since the quarter finals in this tournament. The riskier strategy that is supported by the odds is to throw out the draw and just bet Bayern +105 for whatever you are comfortable hedging, but this does open you up to losing both bets.

I would not suggest waiting for halftime as Bayern could be up 3-0 and then you are screwed.

I actually like Bayern to win the game so I would be making the Bayern bet and backing it up with an Over bet as I think if PSG wins it will be a higher scoring game because I do not think they can shut down Bayern on offense. I would also then see if there is a halftime play.

Hope that is not too confusing. Happy to answer any questions.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Holding a ticket on PSG to win the Champions league

It?s no guarantee but what about playing ?Munich wins AND over 1.5 at +130? sure if Munich wins 1-0 you lose both but the odds of Munich winning 1-0 is +1200... seems unlikely to happen

As bason said it?s not as easy to hedge in soccer because of the 3 way line but i the the bet above seems as solid as any

If you want to risk -200? on Munich to lift the cup it will be 20 to win 10 then you?re free rolling for +35.. but I?m in Munich. Posting my plays after this

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[flapjack]

There?s also another way to look at it. Never hedge. You bet PSG +550. Sunk cost. If you liked them back then and now they?re in the final, why hedge it? Instead look at the match up. If you like Bayern, bet them and forget about the PSG future. If you think PSG offers value, bet them again. If you don?t like either side, hope the future comes in. I dunno. It?s hard to look at things that way, and I hedge all the time, but rationally, that?s probably the way we should look at futures bets. You can lock up a smaller profit and eliminate risk, but then again, who wants to eliminate risk doing something where it?s all about rush of taking a risk? I like Bayern to win the game, but if you gave me PSG +550 to lift the trophy right now, I?d have to take it.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Or just thought.. you could bet Munich wins and over 1.5 10* to win 13* and bet Munich to win 1-0 at 1* to win 12* and that would guarantee all your bases covered IF you want to hedge most you lose above is 11* you?d be +44. And if psg doesn?t win you?ll be you 2-3* so you?d be free rolling +41-42* if i did that correctly


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[redsfann]

Great thoughts here guys, thanks for weighing in.
I?m usually not a hedging kinda guy, but when 55 units are on the line it?s hard not to at least explore some options on how to hedge and there are several offered here.
I?ve liked PSG to win the champions league since they qualified and when I saw a +550 I grabbed it.
Now that they will play for the title tomorrow afternoon the idea of locking in some sort of profit on the game is enticing, but this is gambling and I?m a gambler so....
I?ll let you know what I decide to do in this thread before game time.
Good luck to all who have a wager on the final.


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[PittsburghKid]

End up Heading ?


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[redsfann]

Holding a ticket on PSG to win the Champions league

End up Heading ?


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No, left it alone.
Just played under 2.5 for game -217 @ halftime

1-0 PSG final and I?m a happy guy. :toast:


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[PittsburghKid]

Good luck I took under 2.25 I see this game now ending 1-0 either way, i went with Munich though


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