Home Dogs 12-3 S/U of 5 pts. or less week of 1/20

[carp]

A fellow madjacker alerted me to a thread he saw somewhere on here claiming that betting the money line on home dogs of +5 or less in the NBA would put you in the black throughout the season. I apologize, we can't find the original thread to give due credit, but we've been keeping track of all eligible games since last Sunday with the home dogs on an impressive 12-3 run S/U:

Sun. 1/20...LAL -5 @ Tor. 103-108 WIN
Sun. 1/20...Bos. -2.5 @ Det. 88-103 WIN
Sun. 1/20...OKC -1 @ Den. 118-121 WIN
Sun. 1/20...Dal. -3.5 @ Orl. 111-105 LOSS

Mon. 1/21...LAC -4.5 @ G.S. 99-106 WIN
Mon. 1/21...LAL -1 @ Chi 83-95 WIN

Tues. 1/22..Bos. -4.5 @ Clev. 90-95 WIN
Tues. 1/22..Orl. -4.5 @ Det. 90-105 WIN

Wed. 1/23...Atl. -3 @ Char. 104-92 LOSS
Wed. 1/23...OKC -2 @ G.S. 99-104 WIN

Thurs. 1/24..NYK -1.5 @ Bos. 89-86 LOSS

Friday 1/25..Milw. -4 @ Clev. 108-113 WIN

Sat. 1/26....Chi. -1.5 @ Wash. 73-86 WIN
Sat. 1/26....NYK -4.5 @ Phil. 80-97 WIN
Sat. 1/26....LAC -1 @ Port. 100-101 WIN

That had to be an exceptional week, (80%) or everyone would be doing it. :shrug: Can anyone point me to a thread about this angle? I gotta be able to thank somebody for making me a little money this past week, and get someone's thoughts about this angle for the rest of the season. Thanks in advance Mjer's! :0074

 

[HoopsGuru]

I recall yyz bringing it up but havent done a search for the thread.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Sounded like an interesting angle - here is what I found. I used the line between 2-5, because anything under 2 is usually even money on the moneyline, and I think it would skew the numbers a lot, because you are not getting plus return.


2012 Season


home ML dogs between 2-5 are 40-65 SU
average line +3.4, average ML +155
betting every ML on a home dog between 2-5 - you would be down -3 units


all ML dogs between 2-5 are 95-160 SU
average line +3.5, average ML +155
betting every ML on a dog of 5 between 2-5 - you would be down -12.75 units




Since the 2009 season


home ML dogs between 2-5 are 246-390 SU
average line +3.5, average ML +155
betting every ML on a home dog between 2-5 since the 2009 season - you would down -8.7 units


all ML dogs of 5 or less 638-1003 SU
average line +3.5, average ML +155
betting every ML on a dog when spread is between 2-5 since the 2009 season - you would be down -14.1 units

 

[carp]

Sounded like an interesting angle - here is what I found. I used the line between 2-5, because anything under 2 is usually even money on the moneyline, and I think it would skew the numbers a lot, because you are not getting plus return.


2012 Season


home ML dogs between 2-5 are 40-65 SU
average line +3.4, average ML +155
betting every ML on a home dog between 2-5 - you would be down -3 units


all ML dogs between 2-5 are 95-160 SU
average line +3.5, average ML +155
betting every ML on a dog of 5 between 2-5 - you would be down -12.75 units




Since the 2009 season


home ML dogs between 2-5 are 246-390 SU
average line +3.5, average ML +155
betting every ML on a home dog between 2-5 since the 2009 season - you would down -8.7 units


all ML dogs of 5 or less 638-1003 SU
average line +3.5, average ML +155
betting every ML on a dog when spread is between 2-5 since the 2009 season - you would be down -14.1 units

Wow, that was fast HH. So according to your numbers, over time, that angle won't win. I kinda thought last week was way out of line, but I was still hopin' there may be a no brainer money maker there for me.....guess not. Thanks for the help! :0008

 

[FightingBac]

HH thanks as always your work is awesome...