Home dogs + tenacious D

[badjab]

I'll be taking advantage of the following lines this week: Chi +2.5 and Cle +3.
Since I'm partial to teasers I'll most likely make a big play on this as Chi +8.5 and Cle +9.
It seems to me that the line on Chicago-Green Bay should be inverted (Chi -2.5). According to the current line, GB would be an 8.5 favorite at Lambau.
Likewise, the Steelers were 2 point favorites last week at home against the Ravens and now they face a better team on the road and are giving 3 points. This game should be a pick em.
Give me the home dogs and the points!

 

[Valuist]

Cleveland is not a better team than Baltimore, no matter what the records are. Take a look at their season so far:

Game 1: Lose to the lowly Seahawks at home.
Game 2: Pick off Detmer 7 times yet they do not blow out the NFL's worst team, beating them 24-14. They account for only 257 yds of offense
Game 3: Cheap shot puts Brunell out of the game and Brownies seize momentum & win.
Game 4: Unseasonably cold (wind chill 24) for the warm weather Chargers. Browns prevail in OT.
Game 5: Give up 400 yards offense (199 on ground) to the lowly Bengals.
Game 6: They beat the Ravens largely due to PLUS 3 in turnovers despite being dominated in stat book (321 yards to 219).
Game 7: "Heartbreaking" loss. I use quotes because they had 2 cheap TDs. One, on a fumble return and the second on a deflected pass that WR Johnson caught in stride. They lost despite being PLUS 3 in turnovers. They were outgained 413 to 261 and out first downed 29 to 14. Clearly, the score was misleading. Secondly, that loss could be debilitating to a young team.

As for the Bears/Packers, as a Bears fan I'm objective enough to realize the Packers deserve to be favored. Personally, I made my line at GB minus 1.5.

 

[baby johnson]

i also agree the pack should be favored. three is correct and farve will get it done. this is a huge game for gb at this juncture.

 

[badjab]

for what it's worth...the Sagarin ratings back up my picks.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl01.htm

 

[Punch23]

Another thing you have to weigh in to the equation is that Chicago has had 2 very emotional comebacks/wins in the past two weeks. They haven't lost a game since week one. Their bubble will soon burst. It should have already. They didn't look very good on Sunday, IMO, and I think that GB has the perfect opportunity to stop their stride. The only thing I see that's in Chicago's favor is it's at home. Other than that, I'll take the pack...

As for Cleve, I agree with valuist, they've been very luck with turnover victories. It seems that their opponents forget how to play when they play the browns.Or at least forget how to hold on to the ball. Maybe could see value in a tease but not str8 up.
GL

wes

 

[Valuist]

The Sagarin ratings are based primarily on point differentials and strength of schedule. They can be a good guide, but they don't read between the lines, like when a team gets dominated but comes away with the win. Some scores are misleading but the computerized power ratings do not take that into account.