This seems like it has worked well in the past. Anyone familiar with this angle...I would appreciate input.
Home fav vs. ranked opp
- Thread starter Budman
- Start date
i also like to use this angle when it happens to come around.
i also like to take it another step and play lower ranked teams that are favored over higher ranked, same theory.
just off the top of my head i remember a few of these i played this year and two that stick out from last year.
about a month ago:
ranked bama 3-3.5 dogs at uncc....bama wins by 1 in ot-loss
ranked notre dame 2-4 point dogs at mich..... mich wins by 1-loss
8 0r 9 ranked kentucky 9 point dogs at 11 or 12 ranked unc....unc wins by 14 or 15- win (of course unc should have been favored, but by so many?)
5 ranked ill by 3-6 points over #1 wake...ill rolls-win
last week:
wisky favored over ranked bama....wisky rolls-win
west vir favored over ranked g.wash... w. vir covers-win
last year:
unc favored over uconn.....unc wins and covers-win
ranked wisky 2 point dog at bama....bama wins easy
one interesting thing that i have noticed about these lines though is the movement. one would think, as many mj cappers did today and for the ill -wake game, that vegas wants all the money to come in on that ranked dog, yet i notice that the line movement would show otherwise. vill 3-4, vandy 2-3, wisky last week 6-7.5 and w.virg 2.5-3.5 and ill went from 3-6 vs wake.
is everyone that smart, can vegas not accomplish its goal, or is vegas moving the line in that direction regardless, and i gotta think that there are enough people out there that see the ranked dog, "the better team" catching points and play it to keep the line closer to where it started if not move it the other way.
just my 2 cents.
it would be interesting to see an ats log for these situations.
i also like to take it another step and play lower ranked teams that are favored over higher ranked, same theory.
just off the top of my head i remember a few of these i played this year and two that stick out from last year.
about a month ago:
ranked bama 3-3.5 dogs at uncc....bama wins by 1 in ot-loss
ranked notre dame 2-4 point dogs at mich..... mich wins by 1-loss
8 0r 9 ranked kentucky 9 point dogs at 11 or 12 ranked unc....unc wins by 14 or 15- win (of course unc should have been favored, but by so many?)
5 ranked ill by 3-6 points over #1 wake...ill rolls-win
last week:
wisky favored over ranked bama....wisky rolls-win
west vir favored over ranked g.wash... w. vir covers-win
last year:
unc favored over uconn.....unc wins and covers-win
ranked wisky 2 point dog at bama....bama wins easy
one interesting thing that i have noticed about these lines though is the movement. one would think, as many mj cappers did today and for the ill -wake game, that vegas wants all the money to come in on that ranked dog, yet i notice that the line movement would show otherwise. vill 3-4, vandy 2-3, wisky last week 6-7.5 and w.virg 2.5-3.5 and ill went from 3-6 vs wake.
is everyone that smart, can vegas not accomplish its goal, or is vegas moving the line in that direction regardless, and i gotta think that there are enough people out there that see the ranked dog, "the better team" catching points and play it to keep the line closer to where it started if not move it the other way.
just my 2 cents.
it would be interesting to see an ats log for these situations.
I know the 1st 4 games this year lost cause it cost me a bundle so I jumped off the bandwagon and of course I think it's won it's last 5 :cursin: