home favs

british bulldog

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Sep 5, 2002
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I.E. has posted some stats for the first two months of the NBA season.

His figures say home favs are 127-35 SU, and away favs are 47-26 SU (74%). Now if you dont play favs coming off a 15 or more points win the total for favs are 156-48 (76%).

This to me appears a very high percentage of favourites winning.

ARE THESE STANDARD RESULTS FOR FAVS IN THE NBA OR ARE THEY OVER INFLATED ?

To me if these results are the norm, then loads of money to be made laying the chalk as I am sure the average price for the winning favs is not -300.

example: all favs are -200

204 games X $200 = $40,800 staked
156 wins X $300 = $46,800 returns

PROFIT = $6,000 which is an ROI (returns on investment) of 14.7%

A very nice return for two months work. Now I know all money line favs will not be -200, I only used this figure as an example. But I do believe the average price of the chalk will be around this figure.

Feedback would be welcome. I dont play the NBA that often, but if the above is how it is I for one will play all day and night.
 

Valuist

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According to the numbers at Wagerline, home faves SU are 110-32 for 77%, which is similar to the number IE posted. So has this translated into ATS success? At 74-67 (52.5%) ATS home chalk is right around break even so that means quite a few of these games involved favorites much heavier than -200. Right now Washington is listed at -200 on the moneyline but is only -4.5; What about when Dallas or Sacramento are at home or when Cleveland or Denver are on the road? I would guess the average home favorite would be much steeper than -200.
 
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