Hong Kong Open

Stanley

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Outright plays (1pt):

Jose Maria Olazabal to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
With five top-15 finishes in the last three months of the 2004 season, Ollie has been quietly improving his form without really challenging for a title. On this very short course were he will gladly not be playing the driver very often, he should be more of a title challenger and he did, in fact, win this title in 2001. A further top-10 finish last year shows that this course suits his game and with so many Europeans at very low odds, there looks to be better value with Olazabal.

Thongchai Jaidee to win 40/1 e.w. @ Coral
But there is little better value than 40/1 on Jaidee in Asia! He has played seven times on this Tour in the past year, winning three times and only once finishing outside the top-10. He rested last week after narrowly failing to reach the final stage of the PGA Tour Q-School and should be fresh for this event as he seeks to wrap up the Asian PGA Tour Money Title. With just one round over-par in twelve around this course, his odds should be much shorter.

Wen-Chong Liang to win 100/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes and Coral
Will also take 100/1 on Liang every time he plays in Asia! He finished strongly to end in 15th position last week, having finished 3rd and 4th in his previous two starts. He ranks inside the top-10 in scoring average on both the Asian PGA and Japan Tours and has played well on this course when a younger, inexperienced player. Now he is the top-ranked Chinese player in the World Rankings and a very good future is predicted for this young player.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Bradley Dredge to beat Paul Broadhurst -115 @ Centrebet
Just enough in Dredge's favour in this match. He has slightly the better form, finishing ahead of Broadhurst last week, and he has finished ahead of him in all three of their common events in Asia.

Maarten Lafeber to beat Robert-Jan Derksen -120 @ William Hill and Easybets
Lafeber has a decent record in Asia with three top-5 finishes in the last four seasons and he does have course experience with a top-25 finish last year, whereas Derksen has yet to play in Hong Kong. This should be a repeat of last week's win for Lafeber over his countryman.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Stephen Dodd to beat Soren Hansen -111 @ Centrebet
There may be a negative reaction to winning last week, but if not, this should be another good week for Dodd. He has finished in the top-15 in this event in each of the last two years, ahead of Hansen in their last six common events and he has finished behind Hansen only once in their last eight common events in Asia.

Ian Poulter to beat David Howell -110 @ SkyBet and Stan James
Howell may be a more consistent player, but Poulter is still the better one. He comes fresh off a victory in the Volvo Masters and should match his top-10 finish in the Johnnie Walker Classic in Thailand earlier this year. Howell finished 25th in that event, which is his best-ever finish in Asia.
(also available at Paddy Power and Olympic)

Prayad Marksaeng to beat Thaworn Wiratchant -110 @ SkyBet [2pts]
Just feel that Wiratchant is overpriced following his 3rd place finish last week. It was the first time since February that he had finished ahead of Marksaeng and given that Wiratchant has missed the cut in this event in each of the last two years, I'm not expecting another high finish. Marksaeng has a particularly good record in these co-sanctioned events and finished 7th last year. He should not be too far from that mark this time around.

Charl Schwartzel to beat Thaworn Wiratchant -115 @ Five Dimes
Short of confidence, Schwartzel returned to South Africa after the end of his European Tour season and secured two top-10 finishes on the Sunshine Tour. It appears to have restored his confidence as he finished 3rd in Japan last week. Now he returns to a course on which he played in 2002 (when he finished ahead of Wiratchant) and could event be a contender. Even if not, he should beat Wiratchant as he has done in all of their previous six common events.
(also available at BlueSq)
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Olazabal 8th
Jaidee 39th
Liang 19th

Another event that looked promising before the weekend when all three selections were in the top-10 with two rounds to play. But never looked like improving on that over the last two days.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-5-0; -5.76pts

Dredge/Broadhurst LOST by 4
Lafeber/Derksen LOST by 2
Dodd/Hansen LOST by 9
Poulter/Howell LOST by 14
Marksaeng/Wiratchant LOST by 5
Schwartzel/Wiratchant WON by 5

Always struggling with these plays. Not by as much as in the final result, but was always looking at a loss.

Asian PGA Tour:
Outrights: 5-14; +15.51pts
Matchups: 14-20; -11.92pts
 
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