Hey all,
Just a little sampling of the kind of work I do on a nightly basis. Thank me later! So far this year every GOY has crushed. Documented of course. Last GOY was on Utah @ Colorado. Covered by 23 points. Another easy one tonight.
Thursday, February 12th, 2015 Plays
NCAA BASKETBALL
Tennessee Martin -2 @ S.E. Missouri State-- 3 UNIT GOY #4!!
Northeastern +4.5 @ Hofstra
Georgia Southern -10.5 VS Arkansas State
Portland -4 Vs Pepperdine
Game of the Year Part 4 Writeup-- This Writeup is 100% written, researched, and BEAST-MODED by XXXXXXXXXXXXXX (banned tout) : admin if anybody tries to use this as their own, I will take all of their attractive female relatives out for a delicious seafood dinner, AND NEVER CALL THEM AGAIN!! Haha, Enjoy!!
Matchup- Tennessee Martin Skyhawks @ S.E. Missouri State Redhawks
Game starts at 9 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
Bookies cry at somewhere around 11 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
The line we are taking- Tennessee Martin -2
Ok, Ok... Where to start with this one?! All I have at the moment is the notes I came up with from research and nothing actually written down except little excerpts and I already know this is going to be the most damning of my write-ups yet. I am pretty sure I will have the whole S.E. Missouri State team betting on Tenn. Martin after they read this one!
Tennessee Martin comes into this game at 15-8 overall including an impressive 7-3 record in conference play, while SEMO comes in at a disappointing 11-13 overall and a mediocre at best 5-6 record in conference.
.
Tenn Martin comes in playing GREAT basketball, covering 5 of their last 6 games. During that span they have scored 70.6 PPG and allowed 58.4 PPG for a beautiful average margin of +12.2 points in those 6 games.
S.E. Missouri State comes in playing the same mediocre, inconsistent, and borderline terrible basketball that they have played all season long. Covering only twice in their previous 6 games while scoring 64.8 PPG and allowing 71PPG for a not so beautiful average margin of -6.2 points per game during this current stretch.
So to compare the two margins on their most recent games you have 12.2 and -6.2 or a differential of 18 points!!! Tennessee Martin has been playing much better basketball than SEMO. 18 points is far and wide higher than a similar differential would be on most games that have a spread of 2 points (trust me I look at these numbers on every game I cap) this is RARE.
Head to Head Matchup-- These teams aren't strangers, They have already had their first matchup and here are some notes from that game that I gathered. Not only did I look at the score, but I actually went to the local writers entries on this one and read a full summary of the game. First and foremost Tenn Martin beat SEMO that night 70-53. So a 17 point win in the first game. It was never anything but a DOMINATING victory by the Skyhawks as they led the whole way after the 3 min mark of the first half, had 4 scorers in double figures, and still poured 70 points on SEMO that night despite shooting 5 percentage points lower than their season average,
A couple quick notes:
Tennessee Martin are going for Win #100 in the career of their Head Coach Heath Schroyer on Thursday
The game will also be the first nationally televised game for the Skyhawks this year, being shown on CBSSN or the CBS Sports network which is widely available with most providers.
The Skyhawks also on the brink of breaking into the Mid-Major rankings for the first time in almost a decade, having received votes in the last poll. This is a big deal to these schools.
The Skyhawks are an unblemished 12-0 when they score 70 points this season so far. Unfortunately for SEMO in their last 6 games they have AVERAGED allowing 71 PPG
Tennessee Martin has 3 conference losses. Those 3 losses are to Belmont, Murray State, and Eastern Kentucky,, Those teams also happen to be the last 3 representatives of the Ohio Valley conference in the NCAA tournament, so 3 losses to 3 conference champions. I like to back a team that doesn't have bad losses!
Inside the Numbers:
This is my bread and butter, the numbers. Folks, the numbers lie sometimes, but these numbers would have to be the best liars on the planet to not be telling the truth. Check this out.
There are 351 teams that are included in the stats
Tennessee Martin hit 47.1% of their Field Goals on the season which ranks a VERY IMPRESSIVE 38th in the entire country.
Tennessee Martin has done even better in their last 6 games hitting an unbelievable 50% of their shots from the field as a team in that span!
SEMO comes in ranked 165th in FG% Defense allowing 42.6% from the field for the season.
SEMO has let teams shoot even better than that for the last 6 games. Teams are hitting 45% against them in that span.
Tennessee Martin also hit 37.7% of their 3 pointers which gives them a spot in the top 50 in that category nationally as well.
If you think that is impressive, you will shit a brick when you hear that they are BURNING THE CORDS in the nets in their last 5 games. 48.6 of their 3 point attempts have been successful in the last 5 games they have played. The best mark in the nation during that span!
Poor SEMO, you are walking into a BUZZ SAW. SEMO is ranked 350th out of 351 teams at defending the 3 point line. Yes, you read that correctly. There is 1 team that defends the 3 point line worse than the Redhawks out of 351. So, a team that can't miss right now is about to face a team that lets people shoot. Sounds like a recipe for a blowout if you ask me!
Ok, So you might be saying that while those stats make sense that the Home and Away factor is probably going to make a ton of difference.
Nope.
Tennessee Martin comes into the game at 4-0 on the road in conference play, and 8-2 on the road for the season (one of the best marks in the country)
Southeast Missouri State comes into the game having covered exactly 0 games at home in conference play, to make it a little bit more clear about how crappy this home court is, They haven't covered a game against the spread all season long. and going back to last season have only covered the spread 3 times in their last 18 games at home. Pretty pathetic home court advantage.
Common Opponents-
These teams do play in the same conference so one thing I look at when capping a game is common opponents. Let's see what we come up with when looking at a few matchups that they have in common
VS Eastern Illinois-- Tenn Martin won by 30, SEMO won by 4
VS SIUE--- Tenn Martin won by 5, SEMO lost by 14
@ Austin Peay-- Tenn Martin won by 12, SEMO won by 6
Tennessee Tech-- Tenn Martin won by 3 (road), SEMO won by 4 (home)
Morehead State-- Tenn Martin won by 3, SEMO lost by 13
Eastern Kentucky-- Tenn Martin lost by 8, SEMO lost by 13
@ Murray state---- Tenn Martin lost by 3, SEMO lost by 10
So, if you aren't convinced yet, I will cap it off with this. This is the most fun and most hype that Tennessee Martin has had in a LONG time. They are going to go into this game feeling disrespected. They already have covered 4 out of the last 5 times these teams have faced, they are absolutely dominating SEMO in EVERY major statistical category, they Stomped them when they played the first time, and the linesmakers are still going to make them just a 2 point favorite? They have proven all year long that they are much better than people think and linesmakers keep making the mistake of not giving them enough credit on the line. Means more money for me though, there is no way SEMO comes out of this game with a win, they are a team that is just searching for an identity. Martin is a team on a mission to possibly win a conference championship when they have the Ohio Valley tournament and are playing the best basketball of the year with the rims looking like swimming pools to them. Look for more of the same Thursday Night.
My projected Final Score--- Tennessee Martin 73 SEMO 62
Hope this helps with your bet tomorrow. Pound this sucker for 3 units and go to a theatre and watch a movie with friends, or have your in laws over for Pictionary and Fondue, because there won't be much of a game to watch with this one.
Matt-
Just a little sampling of the kind of work I do on a nightly basis. Thank me later! So far this year every GOY has crushed. Documented of course. Last GOY was on Utah @ Colorado. Covered by 23 points. Another easy one tonight.
Thursday, February 12th, 2015 Plays
NCAA BASKETBALL
Tennessee Martin -2 @ S.E. Missouri State-- 3 UNIT GOY #4!!
Northeastern +4.5 @ Hofstra
Georgia Southern -10.5 VS Arkansas State
Portland -4 Vs Pepperdine
Game of the Year Part 4 Writeup-- This Writeup is 100% written, researched, and BEAST-MODED by XXXXXXXXXXXXXX (banned tout) : admin if anybody tries to use this as their own, I will take all of their attractive female relatives out for a delicious seafood dinner, AND NEVER CALL THEM AGAIN!! Haha, Enjoy!!
Matchup- Tennessee Martin Skyhawks @ S.E. Missouri State Redhawks
Game starts at 9 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
Bookies cry at somewhere around 11 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
The line we are taking- Tennessee Martin -2
Ok, Ok... Where to start with this one?! All I have at the moment is the notes I came up with from research and nothing actually written down except little excerpts and I already know this is going to be the most damning of my write-ups yet. I am pretty sure I will have the whole S.E. Missouri State team betting on Tenn. Martin after they read this one!
Tennessee Martin comes into this game at 15-8 overall including an impressive 7-3 record in conference play, while SEMO comes in at a disappointing 11-13 overall and a mediocre at best 5-6 record in conference.
.
Tenn Martin comes in playing GREAT basketball, covering 5 of their last 6 games. During that span they have scored 70.6 PPG and allowed 58.4 PPG for a beautiful average margin of +12.2 points in those 6 games.
S.E. Missouri State comes in playing the same mediocre, inconsistent, and borderline terrible basketball that they have played all season long. Covering only twice in their previous 6 games while scoring 64.8 PPG and allowing 71PPG for a not so beautiful average margin of -6.2 points per game during this current stretch.
So to compare the two margins on their most recent games you have 12.2 and -6.2 or a differential of 18 points!!! Tennessee Martin has been playing much better basketball than SEMO. 18 points is far and wide higher than a similar differential would be on most games that have a spread of 2 points (trust me I look at these numbers on every game I cap) this is RARE.
Head to Head Matchup-- These teams aren't strangers, They have already had their first matchup and here are some notes from that game that I gathered. Not only did I look at the score, but I actually went to the local writers entries on this one and read a full summary of the game. First and foremost Tenn Martin beat SEMO that night 70-53. So a 17 point win in the first game. It was never anything but a DOMINATING victory by the Skyhawks as they led the whole way after the 3 min mark of the first half, had 4 scorers in double figures, and still poured 70 points on SEMO that night despite shooting 5 percentage points lower than their season average,
A couple quick notes:
Tennessee Martin are going for Win #100 in the career of their Head Coach Heath Schroyer on Thursday
The game will also be the first nationally televised game for the Skyhawks this year, being shown on CBSSN or the CBS Sports network which is widely available with most providers.
The Skyhawks also on the brink of breaking into the Mid-Major rankings for the first time in almost a decade, having received votes in the last poll. This is a big deal to these schools.
The Skyhawks are an unblemished 12-0 when they score 70 points this season so far. Unfortunately for SEMO in their last 6 games they have AVERAGED allowing 71 PPG
Tennessee Martin has 3 conference losses. Those 3 losses are to Belmont, Murray State, and Eastern Kentucky,, Those teams also happen to be the last 3 representatives of the Ohio Valley conference in the NCAA tournament, so 3 losses to 3 conference champions. I like to back a team that doesn't have bad losses!
Inside the Numbers:
This is my bread and butter, the numbers. Folks, the numbers lie sometimes, but these numbers would have to be the best liars on the planet to not be telling the truth. Check this out.
There are 351 teams that are included in the stats
Tennessee Martin hit 47.1% of their Field Goals on the season which ranks a VERY IMPRESSIVE 38th in the entire country.
Tennessee Martin has done even better in their last 6 games hitting an unbelievable 50% of their shots from the field as a team in that span!
SEMO comes in ranked 165th in FG% Defense allowing 42.6% from the field for the season.
SEMO has let teams shoot even better than that for the last 6 games. Teams are hitting 45% against them in that span.
Tennessee Martin also hit 37.7% of their 3 pointers which gives them a spot in the top 50 in that category nationally as well.
If you think that is impressive, you will shit a brick when you hear that they are BURNING THE CORDS in the nets in their last 5 games. 48.6 of their 3 point attempts have been successful in the last 5 games they have played. The best mark in the nation during that span!
Poor SEMO, you are walking into a BUZZ SAW. SEMO is ranked 350th out of 351 teams at defending the 3 point line. Yes, you read that correctly. There is 1 team that defends the 3 point line worse than the Redhawks out of 351. So, a team that can't miss right now is about to face a team that lets people shoot. Sounds like a recipe for a blowout if you ask me!
Ok, So you might be saying that while those stats make sense that the Home and Away factor is probably going to make a ton of difference.
Nope.
Tennessee Martin comes into the game at 4-0 on the road in conference play, and 8-2 on the road for the season (one of the best marks in the country)
Southeast Missouri State comes into the game having covered exactly 0 games at home in conference play, to make it a little bit more clear about how crappy this home court is, They haven't covered a game against the spread all season long. and going back to last season have only covered the spread 3 times in their last 18 games at home. Pretty pathetic home court advantage.
Common Opponents-
These teams do play in the same conference so one thing I look at when capping a game is common opponents. Let's see what we come up with when looking at a few matchups that they have in common
VS Eastern Illinois-- Tenn Martin won by 30, SEMO won by 4
VS SIUE--- Tenn Martin won by 5, SEMO lost by 14
@ Austin Peay-- Tenn Martin won by 12, SEMO won by 6
Tennessee Tech-- Tenn Martin won by 3 (road), SEMO won by 4 (home)
Morehead State-- Tenn Martin won by 3, SEMO lost by 13
Eastern Kentucky-- Tenn Martin lost by 8, SEMO lost by 13
@ Murray state---- Tenn Martin lost by 3, SEMO lost by 10
So, if you aren't convinced yet, I will cap it off with this. This is the most fun and most hype that Tennessee Martin has had in a LONG time. They are going to go into this game feeling disrespected. They already have covered 4 out of the last 5 times these teams have faced, they are absolutely dominating SEMO in EVERY major statistical category, they Stomped them when they played the first time, and the linesmakers are still going to make them just a 2 point favorite? They have proven all year long that they are much better than people think and linesmakers keep making the mistake of not giving them enough credit on the line. Means more money for me though, there is no way SEMO comes out of this game with a win, they are a team that is just searching for an identity. Martin is a team on a mission to possibly win a conference championship when they have the Ohio Valley tournament and are playing the best basketball of the year with the rims looking like swimming pools to them. Look for more of the same Thursday Night.
My projected Final Score--- Tennessee Martin 73 SEMO 62
Hope this helps with your bet tomorrow. Pound this sucker for 3 units and go to a theatre and watch a movie with friends, or have your in laws over for Pictionary and Fondue, because there won't be much of a game to watch with this one.
Matt-
