Robert Ferringo CBB: This guy is like most of us handicapping, hitting at or less than 50% this season and he's slightly positive based on unit management.
2-Unit Play. Take #528 Kentucky (-26) over Columbia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
I don't think it is a stretch at all to expect Kentucky to win this game by 30. Yes, they could be looking ahead to their date with North Carolina this Saturday. And last time that happened they slept their way through a 19-point win over Buffalo. But that was just the second game of the year. And Buffalo is better than Columbia. Kentucky has beaten Top 10 teams (Kansas) by 32 points. They have easy double-digit wins over other Top 40 team Texas and Providence by 12 and 20, respectively. Their other home wins have been bloodbaths, winning by 33, 48, 58 and 23 points against bottom feeder teams. Columbia isn't a bottom feeder. But they don't exactly have the guns to keep up. Kentucky by 30
.
7-Unit Play. Take #522 Purdue (-17) over Arkansas State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
I say about plays like this: Either It Is Or It Isn't. If Purdue just comes to play and with all other things being equal they will win by 20 and cover this spread. Or they won't come to play, they'll dick around for 40 minutes, and they'll win by 8 or 9 and this one won't be close. I think the former. But that's the risk of trying to predict the movements of 20-year-old kids.
That said, there is a pretty good chance that Purdue wins by 100 tonight. Let's start with the Boilermakers. They have posted some huge blowout wins already this year and are coming off a 20-point beating of IUPU-Ft. Wayne. IP-FW is a decent team that was also very motivated to take down the big in-state team. Purdue also beat Missouri by 21, Grambling State by 52, IUPUI by 20 and Samford by 40. I really don't see how Arkansas State is appreciably different than any of those other teams. Purdue is very motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after back-to-back years below .500. I don't think they are taking any game lightly. They kind of already had that weird we-didn't-come-to-play-at-all lackluster game last Saturday, when they lost to North Florida 73-70. I think that one is still fresh enough in their heads where they won't take this game lightly and they won't take their foot off the gas. They are getting decent guard play and they have two quality big men in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. They should completely dictate this game.
Arkansas State, on the other hand, is terrible. But we haven't had a chance to see just how terrible because they have not played. These guys have only played four games this year. Four! And one of those was against a D-II school. Another was against the No. 346 ranked team in the nation, Central Arkansas. The other two games were against UT-Martin and Lamar - and they lost. So, basically, they have played one game against a Top 300 team this year and that game was played on Nov. 17. They've only played twice since before Thanksgiving. All of this would be a problem for a normal team. For a team that is trying to replace five senior starters and seven of its top nine players from last year? It's devastating.
The Boilermakers stunk last season. But they played four games against teams ranked No. 250 or worse last year. We're talking the real dregs. On opening night they had a one-point win over Northern Kentucky. But their other three wins were by 36, 28 and 29 points. In 2012 they played three games against weak sisters. They won by 29, 26 and 33 points. In 2011, the last decent team they had, they played four more of these games against bottom-feeders. They won by 62, 21, 25 and 25. In the years prior they had much better teams so I don't think those results are pertinent. But the fact is they have routinely beaten the hell out of bad teams during this time of the year. And I think they'll do it on Wednesday to an Arkansas State team that is ripe. The Boilermakers will win this one by at least 21 points.
2-Unit Play. Take #526 Georgetown (-2) over Kansas (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
1-Unit Play. Take #529 Louisiana Tech (-4) over UL-Lafayette (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
2-Unit Play. Take #542 Colorado (-5.5) over Colorado State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
I will admit that Colorado has not been very sharp this year. But they bombed Air Force by 15 after their first loss of the year - an embarrassing defeat at Wyoming - and I think they will bounce back after a dud at Georgia last Sunday. The Buffs have dominated this series, going 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Colorado State is undefeated and they are playing well. But they aren't the same on the road. And they are really just a two-man show with J.J. Avila and Dan Bejarano. I am a huge Avila fan. He's one of the best mid-major big men in the nation. But he is playing into a strength for the Buffs, who have Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott down low. It's 2-against-1. Last year the game was at CSU and as a result Johnson and Scott battled foul trouble all game long. But they still held Avila to 4-for-19 shooting and five turnovers. I'd think the whistles will go the other way this time around. And if Avila gets into foul trouble this one will be a blowout. In fact, I think that's what is going to happen. The Buffs have been resilient after nonconference losses. In 2013 they rebouneded from a tough loss against Wyoming with a 9-point win over Colorado State. They came back from an embarrassing loss to Kansas with a 7-point win over Fresno. Last year they lost to Oklahoma State and came home and beat Georgia by 14. That is exactly the type of game I see here. I think Colorado will shoot well and at least contain Avila and the Rams have no counterpunch. Colorado by 10.
1-Unit Play. Take #559 Northern Iowa (-3) over Denver (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
2-Unit Play. Take #561 Davidson (Pk) over Montana (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 10)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #536 Penn State (-3) over Duquesne (9 p.m.) AND Take #532 Temple (-4.5) over Towson (8 p.m.)
I also like a 1-Unit Play on the 'under' in the Temple-Towson game. I think the total will be posted - if it is - around 123.
