Hot Picks 42-11-5 last 2 weeks

[CardShark]

This is a system that started 2 weeks ago.

Sunday was 1-3. Monday was 7-1.


We play Dogs on the puck line favs on the moneyline.
That is how the record was calculated
We play ALL games

Today

tb
ott
NYI
pho
tor
min
stl
cal
MTL

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

We play Dogs on the puck line favs on the moneyline.

ummmmm....maybe it's early in the morning.....but i don't understand this statement?

how do you actually pick the side of a game and decide whether you are taking the dog or the fave or do you pick them both using different books????

gl.:shrug:

 

[CardShark]

Sorry T,

I rush through this as it is not my nature to be thorough.


Lets look at the picks. I just base it on what is at my book.

tb +114 dog play PL at +5. -122
ott -168 fav play ML -168
NYI +130 dog play +.5 -110
pho dog
tor fav play -356
min fav
stl fav
cal fav
MTL dog
too lazy to do them all. Hope you get the idea.

WHen I say play fav or dog, I am not changing my pick just determining PL or ML.

I disclose how I am doing this for record validation only. I do play this way. But others may like to pay less vig and have a lower win %. Overall it should come out close to the same. I have not backtested this using other scenarios, but hope to over the next week.

 

[CardShark]

5-2-2 last night

5-2-2 last night

47-13-7 to date

 

[kickserv]

ummmmm.........not to be a prick.....but record doesn't really mean much (although your record is very good) it's units (or $$) that counts.


you could be 99-1 on the year and still down.


bet 5 bucks on all the 99 wins and 10 000 on the one loss and you'd be way down


or of course you could be 1-99 on the year and actually way up :shrug:


so bottom line....record means squat....it's $$ up or down that matters.


anyway.......good to see more people in the hockey forum....best of luck to ya

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Re: 5-2-2 last night

Re: 5-2-2 last night

47-13-7 to date

good job last nite....

let's see if you stay here for awhile.

 

[trademaster]

47-13-7 to date


hmmm i don't remember u posting here b4, i was gone here for a while so i may be wrong


plus that little prick kickserv is correct...without your units your record doesn't mean a whole lot...

 

[CardShark]

Two classic posters NICE.

Not many hockey posters and you gotta start with the negative CRAP!

I post 5-2 -2 with obvious postiive units and you start taling trash.

Not only that but I post every game for you, and not cherry pick like most posters do.

So, do you act nice and say "GREAT PICKS" "Hope you can keep it going" NAW

No wonder there's not many posters.

Glad no one needs the input. Keep on winning.

 

[Korn]

Cardshark, they have a very valid point.... in sports such as hockey and baseball where u get a different line all the time, your record means nothing.... its the units that matter...

Last season my record was only about 52% yet I was up over +200 units... while theres others with much better percentages but smaller amount of profit..

And who is cherry picking? Is there a problem with being selective on the games you play? Not every play on the board has value....

Other than that you have a great record! Keep it up!

all we're trying to say is that it would be nice to see you post the lines/units with your plays...

GL

 

[CardShark]

Understand what you're saying to a pt, but 99-1 and still not a big winner is just stupid shit. THis is hockey. On any night you may have 2 lines over -200.

Figure it out. You can't get hockey lines that make this record look bad.

I track wins and losses and my book balance.


Tonight :

Tor -118

Ott -580

NJ -240

Minn +.5 +145

TAMPA - RARE PASS because it violates system theory

Carolina +.5 -20

Colo +.5 -122

CHiC -140

Nash +.5 +135

Cal +.5 -128

LA +.5 -127


To the point about not being selective. THe point is at 55% you can win good money if you bet a lot of games and have good money management, a nd use proper unit/bankroll ratio.

If you only bet a few a night you have to have a much higher hit ratio to do anything wothwhile/

FYI, somewhere along the way we did a tranalation of our wins to -110 betting and it came out to about 65% winners.


That means about 10% DIP FROM Fav impact. I will also tell you we have many dog picks in this system. They have gone something like15-5

 

[USC Gamecock]

Shark,

No one's trying to step on toes here, but tonight's card is a perfect example of what people are getting at. For example, you have played 10 games. You can go 7-3, but still lose money if the three loses are OTT -580, NJ -240, & CHI -140 (for example using $100 bets). A record of 7-3 looks great, but not if you are losing $180. Don't get pissed off at people pointing out simple truths. This group here at MJ's is the best going and EVERYONE will be pulling for you, regardless if you are doing well. Welcome aboard, and best of luck.

 

[genosays]

Thanks for the post CardShark .... I'm a hockey forum lurker who really doesn't know enough about the game to wager intelligently .... agree with your point about taking all games if your system is effective .... seems like over the long haul you would make out OK .... anyway just my ramblings here and thanks again.

 

[saint]

If you only bet a few a night you have to have a much higher hit ratio to do anything wothwhile

From a handicapping standpoint, that statement is absolutely false. If you play the entire board, that means you will have to take games with high chalk. Like tonight for example, you are playing Ottowa at -500. Playing high chalk games requires a much higher winning percentage.

In contrast, a system where somone limits plays to say, -130 or less, you need a much lower "hit ratio", as you say. You have it completely backwards.

 

[infinii]

when you say you take all dogs on the puck line, do you mean +0.5, +1 or +1.5? Different books have different lines you know.

Cardshark, we're all interested in any system that produces results. But if you're going to take the effort to post, it's not really that much more difficult to post your units/balance/result.

When I first read this thread, I thought that you played both sides on EVERY game on the board (taking fave ML and dog PL on same game). However your post today doesn't show that. Can you please explain how your games are selected?

 

[saint]

I think pretty much when a favorite is played, it is taken ML. Any dog that is played is taken +.5.

 

[CardShark]

A few pts about the yaya.

I am not saying that you cant have a night where you go 7-3 and lose units. I am saying you can't fdo it every night or over the long haul. Very few nights have a -530. maybe a -300

But how often do those lose. I mean really. If they lost that often they wouldn't be -530.

Company in, this is all I can post tonight Will update #'s tomorrow Lat night sucked

All dog are +.5

tor
col
van
SJ

mtl
clb
pitt
bos
fla
nas