==== HOT PITCHER THEORY WEDNESDAY 8/24 ====

[MAJOR MARTY]

==== HPT GOES A COMBINED 3-6-1 YESTERDAY FOR A -5.0 UNIT LOSS <p>HPT FOR THE GAMES WENT 2-3 -2.0<p>HPT 1ST 5 INN. WENT 1-3-1 -3.0 UNITS UGH!<p>ACCOUNTING:<p>HPT FOR THE GAME: W 166 L 113 (106-85 SINCE THE BREAK)<p>HPT 1ST 5 INN: W 89 L 71 T 31 SINCE THE BREAK<p><br><b>TODAYS "HOT PITCHERS":<p>CARPENTER - 8.3<p>SEO - 6.6<p>HOULTON - 9.8<p>COLON - 8.6<p>MUSSINA - 8.9</b><p><br><blackface>DOUBLE HOT PITCHER GAME:<p>MARLINS W/ BURNETT - 8.3<br>VS<br>BREWERS W/ OHKA - 9.7<p>**** NOTE: NO SUGGESTED SIDE OR TOTAL ****</blackface><p>GL2A<p>OL' PIX<p>====

 

[Musca]

Marty do you by chance have the charts from the NYpost catalogued?

ABout two years ago I was working on a formula that incorporated ERA/ AWHIPto get a ratio- then multiplied by 100 to a percent. Then took the last 3 or last 5 starts to get a scoring efficiency- For instance-

Pitcher A: Has a AWHIP of 9.99 but an era of 4.57 which would give me 4.57/9.99 = .457 * 100 = 45.7% -- Now- The guys has a great whip but 45% of his baserunners are scoring- Which is not great- See what I am getting at? I use it occasionnally now as I do not have the time- But I think it is someting that could be very useful-

I even had it tweaked to include innings pitched- That way ERA+AWHIP were equated base on # of innings per outing- To get a truer #- O.k enough of my nerd stuff... let me know what you think- Maybe we can tweak this bitch into something useable and workable-

Jason

 

[MAJOR MARTY]

Musca (Jason), .........

Musca (Jason), .........

==== YOU LOST ME PAL, I JUST WANT TO KEEP IT SIMPLE FOR THE MOST PART.<p>NOTHING WRONG WITH WORKING THE MATH INTO THE EQUATION, OR ANY OTHER QUIRKS THAT HAPPEN TO WIN MONEY ON A CONSISTENT BASIS ........<p>THIS "THINGY" IS WINNING MONEY ...........<p>THAT IS MY ONLY BOTTOM LINE ! <p>TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION (NO I HAVEN'T EVEN CATALOGUED WHAT I HAVE WORKED WITH SO FAR, ............ I DO EVERYHING BY HAND SO EVEN IT IS A CHORE!)<p>I HAVE PLANNED ON GOING OVER ALL THE RESULTS DURING THE WINTER TO ANALYZE IT DEEPER, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING IT IS "RAW"! <p>KEEP IN TOUCH I'M ALWAYS OPEN TO NEW AVENUES OF APPROACH.<p>PIX2CLICK (Marty) <p>====

 

[BRUSHMAN]

http://www.nypost.com/sports/betting/pitchingform.htm

 

[Musca]

Did not mean to lose-

In the Ny post chart- Divide the ERA by AWHIP and get a decimal number- The closer that number is to zero the better the pitcher in limiting baserunners to score-

Thus a number of .2 is much better than .5

I like to play Under with two pitchers with numbers .2 or lower- Overs with pitchers over .35

Just an FYI

We can work this- It makes monety

Jason

 

[MAJOR MARTY]

Musca,

Musca,

==== WILLING TO LEARN .........<p>JUST P.M. ME WITH YOUR PLAYS, OR LEANS AND "WHYS" AND WE WILL WORK ON FINE TUNING ......<p>APPRECIATE IT .......<p>Marty <p>====