What do you think about streaks when betting on sports?
Here is my take.
If you find a streak why not ride that streak until you lose? Isn't that better than trying to guess when the streak will end and betting the other way. Don't they call it the bettor's falacy. If the first ten flips were heads, well the next one has got to be tales. If you would have jumped on the train after 8 heads in a row, you would have won the 9th and 10th. And just for arguments sake, lets say the 11th is tails. You would be 2-1 with a profit. I know flipping a coin is much different than betting on sports, but I hope it proves my point.
Real life example:
A member of this forum has predicted the winner of 11 straight games. He is on a hot streak. I only picked up on it recently, but I am 2-0. I will continue to follow his streak until he loses. If it is next week, I will be 2-1 with a profit. If it continues, who knows.
The hard part is stoping after the streak ends.
What is your take?
Here is my take.
If you find a streak why not ride that streak until you lose? Isn't that better than trying to guess when the streak will end and betting the other way. Don't they call it the bettor's falacy. If the first ten flips were heads, well the next one has got to be tales. If you would have jumped on the train after 8 heads in a row, you would have won the 9th and 10th. And just for arguments sake, lets say the 11th is tails. You would be 2-1 with a profit. I know flipping a coin is much different than betting on sports, but I hope it proves my point.
Real life example:
A member of this forum has predicted the winner of 11 straight games. He is on a hot streak. I only picked up on it recently, but I am 2-0. I will continue to follow his streak until he loses. If it is next week, I will be 2-1 with a profit. If it continues, who knows.
The hard part is stoping after the streak ends.
What is your take?