Houston
- Thread starter Whalers Rule
- Start date
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Darren Clarke to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
A new course and with David Toms input into the design, this could easily be a course that suits European players more than the standard TPC course on which the young American bombers have mastered their art of playing golf. With par-5s that are too long to make them two-shot holes for the long-hitters and some very short par-4s protected by trees and water, there is a lot to suggest that the Tournament Course at Redstone will be very different to the Members Course, perhaps more akin to Riviera or Bay Hill. Hopefully, that will be the case as Owen and Clarke finished 2nd and 3rd at Bay Hill, but a good record in Houston is also desirable as it shows an ability to play in the prevailing course and weather conditions. Clarke has played in this events twice, in 2002 and 2005, on two different venues and finished 2nd and 4th. Last year's 4th place finish was particularly impressive given his final round collapse the previous week. This time he arrives in just as good form with his 3rd place at Bay Hill followed by a top-20 finish in the Players Championship and a very strong performance in the Masters. He started the final round in 4th place and even though he admitted in his post-round interview that he did play very well, he didn't hole anything and finished 22nd. Against a weak field and on a course that should suit, he looks backable in a difficult event to predict.
Greg Owen to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Owen followed up his 2nd place finish in the Bay Hill Invitational - famous for his three-putt on the penultimate green - with a strong finish in the Players Championship and though he disappointed in his next event last week, his form does remain good - he finished in the top-20 in greens in regulation for the fourth consecutive event and that should be very important on any David Toms course. And last year's Houston Open represented his best chance to win on the PGA Tour before the Bay Hill Invitational last month. He held the sole lead during the front nine in the final round and though he would finish in 4th place alongside Clarke, a return to Houston should help his game.
Brian Davis to finish in the top-ten 8/1 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Becoming increasingly speculative and that is certainly the case with Davis. He has just one top-10 finish from ten PGA Tour starts this season, but there are plenty of signs that he close to another top-10 finish. His top-20 finish in the Players Championship should have been so much better. He ranked in the top-20 in driving distance, but more importantly 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation that week and it was only a poor performance on the greens that stopped him being a serious contender. He then returned to the European Tour for a week as he was not eligible for the Masters and finished in the top-10 in Portugal and returned to this Tour last week and was in the top-30 throughout on a course he had never played with two double-bogeys at the end of his 3rd round. He will not suffer from such course inexperience this week and if a god history in this event is of any benefit, it will benefit Davis as well as Clarke and Owen. The Londoner finished 7th last year and this course really should suit his game far more than the Members Course.
Darren Clarke to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
A new course and with David Toms input into the design, this could easily be a course that suits European players more than the standard TPC course on which the young American bombers have mastered their art of playing golf. With par-5s that are too long to make them two-shot holes for the long-hitters and some very short par-4s protected by trees and water, there is a lot to suggest that the Tournament Course at Redstone will be very different to the Members Course, perhaps more akin to Riviera or Bay Hill. Hopefully, that will be the case as Owen and Clarke finished 2nd and 3rd at Bay Hill, but a good record in Houston is also desirable as it shows an ability to play in the prevailing course and weather conditions. Clarke has played in this events twice, in 2002 and 2005, on two different venues and finished 2nd and 4th. Last year's 4th place finish was particularly impressive given his final round collapse the previous week. This time he arrives in just as good form with his 3rd place at Bay Hill followed by a top-20 finish in the Players Championship and a very strong performance in the Masters. He started the final round in 4th place and even though he admitted in his post-round interview that he did play very well, he didn't hole anything and finished 22nd. Against a weak field and on a course that should suit, he looks backable in a difficult event to predict.
Greg Owen to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Owen followed up his 2nd place finish in the Bay Hill Invitational - famous for his three-putt on the penultimate green - with a strong finish in the Players Championship and though he disappointed in his next event last week, his form does remain good - he finished in the top-20 in greens in regulation for the fourth consecutive event and that should be very important on any David Toms course. And last year's Houston Open represented his best chance to win on the PGA Tour before the Bay Hill Invitational last month. He held the sole lead during the front nine in the final round and though he would finish in 4th place alongside Clarke, a return to Houston should help his game.
Brian Davis to finish in the top-ten 8/1 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power
Becoming increasingly speculative and that is certainly the case with Davis. He has just one top-10 finish from ten PGA Tour starts this season, but there are plenty of signs that he close to another top-10 finish. His top-20 finish in the Players Championship should have been so much better. He ranked in the top-20 in driving distance, but more importantly 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation that week and it was only a poor performance on the greens that stopped him being a serious contender. He then returned to the European Tour for a week as he was not eligible for the Masters and finished in the top-10 in Portugal and returned to this Tour last week and was in the top-30 throughout on a course he had never played with two double-bogeys at the end of his 3rd round. He will not suffer from such course inexperience this week and if a god history in this event is of any benefit, it will benefit Davis as well as Clarke and Owen. The Londoner finished 7th last year and this course really should suit his game far more than the Members Course.
A quick note about the Houston Open. The tournament is being played at Redstone again this year,but it is a different course than the last 3 years. They had been playing on the members course, but now the new 18 hole Players course is ready so only a handful of players have played this course before this week. Singh is not one of them. All signs are that this is a much more challenging course than the members course which was long and straight for the most part.
Longshots to win Houston Open:
Jeff Maggert(80-1). Always plays solid in his hometown.
10 wins 800. Also put 10 on a TOP 5 finish pays 20.
John Daly(50-1). Also has played well in Houston. Lost to Singh on playoff hole last year. 10 to win 500.
Mike Weir(18-1). Too good of odds to pass up on a fairly weak field. 20 to win 360.
Also going with a ROUND 1 3 BALL:
VJ Singh(-110) OVER J. Leonard,Darren Clarke
110 to win 100
Singh has won in Hoouston 2 years in a row and is the best player by far among the 3. Seems to easy on paper,but anyone can have a good day on the course.
Good Luck
Longshots to win Houston Open:
Jeff Maggert(80-1). Always plays solid in his hometown.
10 wins 800. Also put 10 on a TOP 5 finish pays 20.
John Daly(50-1). Also has played well in Houston. Lost to Singh on playoff hole last year. 10 to win 500.
Mike Weir(18-1). Too good of odds to pass up on a fairly weak field. 20 to win 360.
Also going with a ROUND 1 3 BALL:
VJ Singh(-110) OVER J. Leonard,Darren Clarke
110 to win 100
Singh has won in Hoouston 2 years in a row and is the best player by far among the 3. Seems to easy on paper,but anyone can have a good day on the course.
Good Luck
to win
.10 units
daly 50-1
owen 50-1
maggert 80-1
davis 100-1
flesch 100-1
frazar 100-1
mcdowell 125-1
match-ups
toms over singh +170 1 units
.10 units
daly 50-1
owen 50-1
maggert 80-1
davis 100-1
flesch 100-1
frazar 100-1
mcdowell 125-1
match-ups
toms over singh +170 1 units
Win Only :
Mike Weir --> 20/1 Stan James
Each-Way 1/4 1-5 :
Jerry Kelly --> 50/1 Stan James
Vaughn Taylor --> 50/1 Blue Square
Mike Weir --> 20/1 Stan James
Each-Way 1/4 1-5 :
Jerry Kelly --> 50/1 Stan James
Vaughn Taylor --> 50/1 Blue Square
1st Round Leader Wagers
This is just on playing the odds here:
I am guessing morning scores will be better than afternoon scores on day 1.
Winds are estimated to only be between 3-9 MPH before NOON.
Winds will be 9-16 MPH from NOON on.
So early morning players worth taking:
VJ Singh(7-1) -- Tourney favorite with a 7:32 tee time. 30 to win 210.
KJ Choi(33-1) -- Lives in the Houston area and is one of a few to ever play this course before this week. 7:53 tee time. 10 to win 330.
Stuart Appleby(25-1) -- Has won in Houston before. 7:53 tee time. 10 to win 250.
Lucas Glover(25-1) -- 7 Top 25's and 4 of them Top 10 in 11 events this year. 7:42 tee. 10 to win 250.
Two afternoon plays in case the morning guys fail me.
Longshot Jeff Maggert(66-1) -- Knows this course better than anyone out there other than maybe David Toms. 5 to win 330.
David Toms(18-1) -- Helped design this course and has played it quite a few times. 10 to win 180.
75 in wagers. Need one these guys to have the lead and hold it.
Good Luck on your plays this weekend.
This is just on playing the odds here:
I am guessing morning scores will be better than afternoon scores on day 1.
Winds are estimated to only be between 3-9 MPH before NOON.
Winds will be 9-16 MPH from NOON on.
So early morning players worth taking:
VJ Singh(7-1) -- Tourney favorite with a 7:32 tee time. 30 to win 210.
KJ Choi(33-1) -- Lives in the Houston area and is one of a few to ever play this course before this week. 7:53 tee time. 10 to win 330.
Stuart Appleby(25-1) -- Has won in Houston before. 7:53 tee time. 10 to win 250.
Lucas Glover(25-1) -- 7 Top 25's and 4 of them Top 10 in 11 events this year. 7:42 tee. 10 to win 250.
Two afternoon plays in case the morning guys fail me.
Longshot Jeff Maggert(66-1) -- Knows this course better than anyone out there other than maybe David Toms. 5 to win 330.
David Toms(18-1) -- Helped design this course and has played it quite a few times. 10 to win 180.
75 in wagers. Need one these guys to have the lead and hold it.
Good Luck on your plays this weekend.
Houston Open Plays
Houston Open Plays
First of Four in Texas.
Mike Weir+16.00
Greg Owen+40.00
Darren Clarke OV/Stuart Appleby-1.15
Mike Weir OV/Padraig Harrington-1.30
Greg Owen OV/Bo Van Pelt-1.05
Tim Herron OV/Brandt Jobe-1.30
Good Luck to All
Houston Open Plays
First of Four in Texas.
Mike Weir+16.00
Greg Owen+40.00
Darren Clarke OV/Stuart Appleby-1.15
Mike Weir OV/Padraig Harrington-1.30
Greg Owen OV/Bo Van Pelt-1.05
Tim Herron OV/Brandt Jobe-1.30
Good Luck to All
Outrights (e/w 1-5):
Van Pelt 40/1
Quigley 125/1
1st round 3 balls:
04/20/2006 Houston Open R 1 Parnevik/ Maggert/ Gay
(3 Balls) Jeff Maggert
+162 None To Run
Van Pelt 40/1
Quigley 125/1
1st round 3 balls:
04/20/2006 Houston Open R 1 Parnevik/ Maggert/ Gay
(3 Balls) Jeff Maggert
+162 None To Run
I mean who wouldnt bet this guy?
1/22/06 Bob Hope Chrysler Classic CUT 77 72 74 68 -- 291 +3 --
1/29/06 Buick Invitational CUT 74 80 -- -- -- 154 +10 --
2/12/06 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am T53 69 73 70 75 -- 287 -1 $12,564.00
2/19/06 Nissan Open CUT 75 69 -- -- -- 144 +2 --
3/05/06 Ford Championship at Doral CUT 70 71 -- -- -- 141 -3 --
3/12/06 The Honda Classic CUT 73 77 -- -- -- 150 +6 --
4/02/06 BellSouth Classic CUT 73 75 -- -- -- 148 +4 --
4/16/06 Verizon Heritage DQ -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
1/22/06 Bob Hope Chrysler Classic CUT 77 72 74 68 -- 291 +3 --
1/29/06 Buick Invitational CUT 74 80 -- -- -- 154 +10 --
2/12/06 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am T53 69 73 70 75 -- 287 -1 $12,564.00
2/19/06 Nissan Open CUT 75 69 -- -- -- 144 +2 --
3/05/06 Ford Championship at Doral CUT 70 71 -- -- -- 141 -3 --
3/12/06 The Honda Classic CUT 73 77 -- -- -- 150 +6 --
4/02/06 BellSouth Classic CUT 73 75 -- -- -- 148 +4 --
4/16/06 Verizon Heritage DQ -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Interesting season so far, if Mickelson can get one more victory before Tiger we may have the start of a great rivalry, ala Nicholas & Palmer... Another trend continues with first timer's winning a.ka.a Baddeley between the majors...Watch out, I wish now I had bet some more, but I stick with my guns (although new course- better chance for rookies :shrug: )
Toms 15-1
D. Clarke 20-1
Glover 25-1
Choi 40-1
Daly 40-1
Flesch 100-1
Riley 125-1
Toms 15-1
D. Clarke 20-1
Glover 25-1
Choi 40-1
Daly 40-1
Flesch 100-1
Riley 125-1
Hey guys,
Someone posted on another board that he believe KJ Choi will not make the cut in this tournament. I am considering fading KJ Choi in all the matchups I can find.
Does anyone else believe this to be true?
IS
Someone posted on another board that he believe KJ Choi will not make the cut in this tournament. I am considering fading KJ Choi in all the matchups I can find.
Does anyone else believe this to be true?
IS
Outrights:
Lucas Glover(28/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Brett Quigley(150/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Padraig Harrington(25/1) e.w. @ BetFred
- - My sheet has more names than usual ticked for further consideration, but in the final analysis I took an unusal tack for me in such circumstances, and went with only three selections rather than my top five or six choices . . . I definitely believe in and pursue fairy tale storylines that seem scripted by a Hollywood screenwriter, and while I much prefer scripts that feature wide public attention only after a solid start has been achieved, I'm high enough on Lucas Glover (with his new school driving strategy and old school shotmaking qualities with his irons, and personable ambition to be the best) to take my shot with the man riding a white horse into this championship with more than a few hopeful onlookers by his side from the outset . . . Quigley was not far behind Oberholser in my book (and probably just behind Rose) in terms of the players coming into this season that could carry my cash in pursuit of their maiden win whenever the odds and/or circumstances suggested a favorable opportunity . . . Harrington had an intensity in his face at the Masters that told me he had turned the corner on his season and that he has to be disappointed about his finish to the proceedings at Augusta . . . Baird, Beem and Daly were probably the next choices off my short list.
GL
Lucas Glover(28/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Brett Quigley(150/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods
Padraig Harrington(25/1) e.w. @ BetFred
- - My sheet has more names than usual ticked for further consideration, but in the final analysis I took an unusal tack for me in such circumstances, and went with only three selections rather than my top five or six choices . . . I definitely believe in and pursue fairy tale storylines that seem scripted by a Hollywood screenwriter, and while I much prefer scripts that feature wide public attention only after a solid start has been achieved, I'm high enough on Lucas Glover (with his new school driving strategy and old school shotmaking qualities with his irons, and personable ambition to be the best) to take my shot with the man riding a white horse into this championship with more than a few hopeful onlookers by his side from the outset . . . Quigley was not far behind Oberholser in my book (and probably just behind Rose) in terms of the players coming into this season that could carry my cash in pursuit of their maiden win whenever the odds and/or circumstances suggested a favorable opportunity . . . Harrington had an intensity in his face at the Masters that told me he had turned the corner on his season and that he has to be disappointed about his finish to the proceedings at Augusta . . . Baird, Beem and Daly were probably the next choices off my short list.
GL
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Bummer about Clarke--with his wife and all.
Very bad beat for his backers this week--Stan buddy you have had enough bad beats on outrights for entire year in 1st 3 months.
Don't see anythingthat would give me reason to fade Choi--Spades
---unless you know person well or he gave valid reason would take suggestion with grain of salt.
Hate to see the rain--doing same here and was planning on viewing telecast in entirety.
Viewed yesterday and interesting course--quite like last weeks tourney in that favors ball strikers vs power however ample rain will turn the tide. Lots of trees and water. Only a few holes the trees come into play unless very errant shot--biggest culpurt is position of fairway bunkers that catch the long ball and fairways narrow the father from the tee--rough is not too bad but thicker around greens. Greens appear to have some good spots for nasty pins on weekend. I don't see the -20 projected score if wind blows even with the rain softening things up.
Very bad beat for his backers this week--Stan buddy you have had enough bad beats on outrights for entire year in 1st 3 months.
Don't see anythingthat would give me reason to fade Choi--Spades
---unless you know person well or he gave valid reason would take suggestion with grain of salt.
Hate to see the rain--doing same here and was planning on viewing telecast in entirety.
Viewed yesterday and interesting course--quite like last weeks tourney in that favors ball strikers vs power however ample rain will turn the tide. Lots of trees and water. Only a few holes the trees come into play unless very errant shot--biggest culpurt is position of fairway bunkers that catch the long ball and fairways narrow the father from the tee--rough is not too bad but thicker around greens. Greens appear to have some good spots for nasty pins on weekend. I don't see the -20 projected score if wind blows even with the rain softening things up.
FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts
Clarke wd
Owen 34th
Davis mc
That's six weeks in a row! I might as well write the postscript when I make the initial plays! Clarke finished the first round in 2nd place, but when withdrew to be with his ailing wife. Owen did hold the lead in the 2nd round, but even though Appleby overtook him late in the day, he was tied for the lead after the opening hole on Saturday. But then the usual Saturday play of my tips returned with back-to-back double bogeys and he finished the round outside the top-10. Still, hope was restored with a 3-under-par spell through the opening six holes on Sunday lifted him to 4th place and four shots behind Appleby, but thereafter it was farcical. He three-putted the 7th from 31 feet, he hit two balls in the water on the next hole (the easiest hole on the course) and he then four-putted the 9th hole! You couldn't write this stuff!
PGA Tour ytd: 8-40; +7.69pts
All Tours ytd
Outrights: 22-91; +6.93pts
Matchups: 22-18; +2.88pts
Clarke wd
Owen 34th
Davis mc
That's six weeks in a row! I might as well write the postscript when I make the initial plays! Clarke finished the first round in 2nd place, but when withdrew to be with his ailing wife. Owen did hold the lead in the 2nd round, but even though Appleby overtook him late in the day, he was tied for the lead after the opening hole on Saturday. But then the usual Saturday play of my tips returned with back-to-back double bogeys and he finished the round outside the top-10. Still, hope was restored with a 3-under-par spell through the opening six holes on Sunday lifted him to 4th place and four shots behind Appleby, but thereafter it was farcical. He three-putted the 7th from 31 feet, he hit two balls in the water on the next hole (the easiest hole on the course) and he then four-putted the 9th hole! You couldn't write this stuff!
PGA Tour ytd: 8-40; +7.69pts
All Tours ytd
Outrights: 22-91; +6.93pts
Matchups: 22-18; +2.88pts
