How many time do underdogs win outright?

[BobbyBlueChip]

Interesting article

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html

"There have been 576 games in which a team was favored by 3 points by Las Vegas over the last 15 years. How many times does that team win outright? The answer is 319 times or 55.4% of the time. That is 319 times the favorite has won and 257 times the underdog has won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win the game when the line is exactly 3 points. "

 

[ageecee]

Interesting article

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html

"There have been 576 games in which a team was favored by 3 points by Las Vegas over the last 15 years. How many times does that team win outright? The answer is 319 times or 55.4% of the time. That is 319 times the favorite has won and 257 times the underdog has won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win the game when the line is exactly 3 points. "

works well in college baskets also-I love betting road teams getting 4 pts or less in baskets.

 

[Bisket23]

46% is breakeven at best if you blindly bet the dogs SU here

 

[MadJack]

Interesting article

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html

"There have been 576 games in which a team was favored by 3 points by Las Vegas over the last 15 years. How many times does that team win outright? The answer is 319 times or 55.4% of the time. That is 319 times the favorite has won and 257 times the underdog has won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win the game when the line is exactly 3 points. "

Could you break it down including the record for home team dogs and away team dogs, straight up and ATS?

TIA :0008

 

[harlytiger]

I have bet home teams, fav 3pts and done well.
IF you could seperate them with home favorites, I would like to see the stats.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Could you break it down including the record for home team dogs and away team dogs, straight up and ATS?

TIA :0008

Keep it up slick and I'll take my profitable ass elsewhere. Sheesh!

 

[BGFalcon]

Interesting article

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html

"There have been 576 games in which a team was favored by 3 points by Las Vegas over the last 15 years. How many times does that team win outright? The answer is 319 times or 55.4% of the time. That is 319 times the favorite has won and 257 times the underdog has won which means the underdog is almost as likely as the favorite to win the game when the line is exactly 3 points. "

I'm having a hard time understanding how 55.4% vs. 44.6% are considered "almost as likely".

 

[#cruncher]

I like to look at 3 groups (of dogs) mainly. Those getting...

(1) less than 7
(2) less than 10
(3) less than 14

Of course the higher you go, the less risky it is I would think. One other thing I've learned to look at over the years, in conjunction with this is, who is the 'name' team, if there is one, because the OM is more likely to 'punish' that team a point or 3 with the line.