how to evaluate hedging propositions, in-game or otherwise, with an example

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've thought about this before but had another encounter with a 'guaranteed win' proposition set up today.
The in-game stuff is relevant and I think it is the way of the future for anyone crazy enough to try to make
a living through sports wagering, but I'll postpone further comment, there, unless someone else wants to drop
word in agreement, disagreement, or otherwise.

Case I had today will be laid out as briefly as possible.
I had a two-team parlay at odds just over +180 ($100 pays me 180.7).
Second game was Godoy Cruz--Argentina Premier soccer--which I believed was separated
in start time from the other game (a W) by an hour, but which ended up being played 3 hours
later than I expected, either due to a rare time-change via Pinnacle's posted start-times or my
incompetence (either I avoided adjusting their pst to my est or Amnesia Haze is more potent than I
previously gave it credit for).

The hedge:
1st game hits and I'm sitting with x risked to win 1.8x.
I'm guaranteed to cash barring a tie or an Arsenal de Sarandi win.
Arsenal de Sarandi was listed at +0.5 +126 before kick-off.
Therefore, I can match my bet in whole or in part and guarantee a profit for the overall
conglomeration of my bets on said game. Barring professional play, I could not see a reason to 'cover' said original bet with the hedge, which would have given me an overall profit of $26 for a $200 risk on the game. 13%, I suppose, but my earlier game had scored and, after a second look at my pick, I had to let the original
play stand with the potential 180% profit as opposed to the guaranteed 13% profit (with half risked).
I got lucky in this case, with a Godoy Cruz goal somewhere near the half-way point of the second half,
but if I had to Bush-out and put food on my family then perhaps my approach should have been different.

Is there any arguments for what should be done, is said situations, or does it ultimately depend on one's
means, motive and opportunity? Means could refer to either any grave situation that may occur if my second
game loses or my ability to cover a massive hedge if the original hedge was significant; motive can refer to
my intentions as a gambler, which may have changed when the option appears by way of others bets closing,
or even the intent to try to stay on the right side of averages, which I hope I was doing my reassessing my
hedge opportunity as being drawback (not sure, there); opportunity relates to previous gab regarding
ability to cover any original bet and, obviously, whatever line is available...I've seen many opportunities to
hedge that provided such a narrow window for potential value that such further risks become moot, as
anyone who has played pointspreads and then followed up on halftime lines could attest to.

Not sure what's up around here, lately,
but my head is still on sports, probabilities, statistics, perimeters (nevermind) and the like.
Maybe some articles or opinions somewhere.


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/scIqFErh3v4" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[IE]

pinnacle

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

the 'with half risked', in the hedge description, might be irrelevant, on further consideration.
Looking at no-risk (hedge, on hindsight/hindbet) vs 4-to-1 on a coin-toss (for example), might sway the
owner of the original bet regardless. If the motive is to ensure profit then the decision seems predetermined,
is what causes me pause. Anyone in this cannot be that stupid, am I right?

On the other hand, I've met people who will not take 2-to-1 on a coin-toss, nevermind the 4-to-1 I suggested
previously. These people, somehow, still seem to navigate through life...more or less.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

That's cool, IE, thanks.

Every case is going to be different, I suggest.
I suppose that I've become convinced that I could clean up on hedging and in-game situations if I had both
the money and the lifespan to backroll it. I am guessing, for example, that I could imagine a thought experiment
involving a deck of (52) cards where bets can be made on what is drawn next--color, suit, odd/even, whatever--
and there will be times when Bettor Joe is in good shape. This example would have to include BJ not just
being up from previous bets but having some future on remaining draws. Once he 'wins' (gets advantage) in
the early rounds (say with a bet that the last card that will be drawn will be black and then the high precentage
or early draws end up red) and is given a further opportunity to bet (with plus odds on the last card drawn being
red) there is a good chance that BJ will have an opportunity to make his overall risk be positive.

My concern is that the discrimination of overall value will get distorted. I should play around with these card
examples but I can see situations where one could hedge against a longshot beat-down, with a small plus
reward, vs holding to ones guns and reaping a more bountiful reward.

I hate to say it but I don't know if subjective value can be eliminated as each game is only played once and,
more importantly, ones motivations is going to dictate their values. Somebody who is rich and won't accept
a legitimate 2-to-1 on a coin-toss call is just irrational (barring whatevas) while someone who is clamouring
for every nickel and dime they can find can be forgiven for absconding from such gambling.
A more extreme example to suggest a more salient point, Hendrix willing.

 

[kickserv]

Holy Crap an EXTRAPOLATER sighting:scared

x44:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Holy Crap an EXTRAPOLATER sighting

I'll take that as a compliment of sorts, kickserv...thanks.
I was going to post this in a new thread as I totally want reckoning with what follows, but I'll drop the
cookie bombs in here and if I cannot be satisfied (naturally) then I will either try in a new thread and/or
seek asylum elsewhere.

Maybe probability and/or economics thought can unwind my confusion.

Over the years, I've considered many ways to try and assess value when I consider myself to have a reasonably
reliable probability for an outcome. Disregarding how to do so and my varied lack of success in alternative sports,
my confidence in a personal 'cap of an MLB game, say at 60%, cannot be deemed worse than moderately neato.

Hypothetical line of +100 on my 'cap of 60%.
One suggestion of measured value could be a simple 60% minus my required-to-break-even of 50%, for +100,
or '+10'.
Another, which I've played with, is by fooling around with 'return on investment' (roi) which, here, might be:
60 x 1 = 60
-40 x 1 = -40
=+20 on $100 risked or 20% roi, barring me totally not grasping anything other than my pipe.

If all that is kosher then I'd like to relate this primary example in regards to hedging:
I can bet on a coin toss.
Anne's bookshop has Heads listed at +200 and I'm all over that.
Before the toss I find that the line has swung, massively, and I can now get Tails at +200.
(could be at different books, or similar, and an extreme example, but doesn't matter here (digress<(digress)>))

If I stick to my original Heads I'm looking at:
50 x 2 = 100
50 x -1 = -50
=+50 or 50% roi for my hoppy play on Heads

If I match this original bet IN WHOLE or IN PART then I still have an overall 50% roi for each wager made,
though my hedging option should consider some factor I'm totally missing; some concept such as 'exposure'
or something else related to risk and/or expected value.

I hope that makes sense.
I've got $10,000 on Heads at +200. What should I come back with on at Tails +200?
(via logic, I believe the answer should be everything that I own)


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MvLmpXXPDB8" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Not surprised by the lack of whopping consideration of relevant issues.
Maybe any readers just do this stuff for fun.
I'm sure several do it attempting to make a profit.
I guess I've become more of a sucker for the challenge.

Regardless, B&O's discussion of a related hedge opportunity is discussed, somewhat, here:
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?639054-Sun-Conf-Final

For anyone still interested in the hedging opportunities than present themselves,
and for any minority that hasn't already seen his words today.

Enjoy the clock funk.


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rL3AgkwbYgo" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[MadJack]

No technical analysis from me, or the math, but I've always believed that if you want to hedge to guarantee a profit then why play a parlay to put yourself in that position?

I've often found myself in the last leg of a 4 team or 5 team parlay where I could have guaranteed myself a very nice profit but I always let it ride. If you're not going to let it ride, then why did you play the parlay?

What would the sports book want you to do? I don't know, I'm asking. By hedging, aren't you taking a lot of your huge edge away that you have on that one last game?

Let it ride

 

[yyz]

No technical analysis from me, or the math, but I've always believed that if you want to hedge to guarantee a profit then why play a parlay to put yourself in that position?

I've often found myself in the last leg of a 4 team or 5 team parlay where I could have guaranteed myself a very nice profit but I always let it ride. If you're not going to let it ride, then why did you play the parlay?

What would the sports book want you to do? I don't know, I'm asking. By hedging, aren't you taking a lot of your huge edge away that you have on that one last game?

Let it ride

:SIB

 

[kickserv]

If you're not going to let it ride, then why did you play the parlay?

This

 

[Penguinfan]

No technical analysis from me, or the math, but I've always believed that if you want to hedge to guarantee a profit then why play a parlay to put yourself in that position?

I've often found myself in the last leg of a 4 team or 5 team parlay where I could have guaranteed myself a very nice profit but I always let it ride. If you're not going to let it ride, then why did you play the parlay?

What would the sports book want you to do? I don't know, I'm asking. By hedging, aren't you taking a lot of your huge edge away that you have on that one last game?

Let it ride

I've often felt this way when tempted to hedge. Say I have a $50 4-teamer that pays +$615, when I get to the third win and want to hedge I need to bet (rounding) $330 to "lock up" a $300 profit no matter what happens. Had I just bet a 3-teamer it would have paid.....you guessed it......$300.

If I hedge the fourth game then I really added it for no reason. I think people just don't like to come close and get nothing so they hedge when in reality they are giving up all the edge they gained by winning the first three games of that 4-teamer.

What would the casino want? My guess is it doesn't matter to them because you have to forget what happened already and focus on what is now happening, you are in a position that you are now risking $50 to win $615 on that last game with a line of -110. Would the casino rather you risk $50 to win $615 half the time or $350 to win $300? Half the time you win $615 when you don't hedge and all the time you win $300 when you do hedge, either way the casino is out $300 on average so I guess they don't really care.

 

[203Hoosier]

Great discussion.
I would tend not to hedge, unless it was such a potentially large payoff where it would be "life altering"
But 1- it's what makes you feel comfortable, and 2- regardless of your decision, you cannot let yourself look back in regret.

There are articles on ESPN each year about some guy who holds a "futures" ticket on a particular team to win the College Football Playoff or the NCAA Tournament. I'm sure you've read them.
"Player bet $1,000 on Auburn (or whoever ) to win the College Football Playoff back in July at odds of 200-1."
Then there is a discussion about what he should do for the title game.
I've never been fortunate to be in this situation :lol: but when I read things like "What should he do?" I say "I would hedge. A BIT."
Auburn wins the game, he wins $200K. Auburn loses the game, he loses his initial $1,000 stake.
Let's say the game is a "pick'em".....here's what I would do.....I'd fly out to Vegas and put $50K on Auburn's opponent. (There was a REASON I liked Auburn at 200-1 odds) And I'M in control...the book isn't...keep them on the hook for the majority of their exposure.
So, assuming -110 vig, Auburn wins: +$145K.
Auburn loses: +49K.
I can live with that.
Having said this, it's hard for many people to get a hold of $50K in a week and fly out to make that "hedge." I would do what I have to do (scramble like hell!) to at least ensure I made $49K.
I'm sure many people would do something different than this, and that's OKAY. (It's a great "problem" to have!)
Yes, there's math involved, and you are on the RIGHT side of the math, as you know. But, and I speak for just myself, I'm coming out of this with SOMETHING on a potential payoff this large. (So, I'm in between "hedge" and "let it ride." Let's say, let MOST of it ride.

 

[gjn23]

Who the f considers a hedge on a 2 team parlay?

Might as well hedge every s/u bet at halftime.

Let the mfker ride unless you're possibly getting back a large return or have a large initial outlay and new info has come out hbefore last game in parlay starts.