Before I even get started on my thoughts and opinions today (for those that don't have time to read) I am
PASSING on tonights card.
I have always thought highly of cappers who can look at card and not find an interesting angle and PASS. I have never been one of these cappers as I usually use my 1 unit plays on these type of days, but tonight is going to be different. I have been doing very well because of a lot of hard work, a lot of time put into each days games, and a little luck. Tonight I am going to go have a couple beers at the Dallas Stars vs LA Kings game and forget about the College Hoops. I have put a lot of time and work into tonights cards and I will share my thoughts with you, but no action for the Home Wrecker!
At first I really thought Bowling Green getting 3 points against a VERY STRUGGLING team (Mich) looked tempting, but this Michigan team has talent and what I believe to be a damn good coach. Teams with talent that are playing poorly looking for their first win and are home tonight......scary......why not go with michigan? They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. BG won vs Mich last year 65-59. 6-10 Kevin Netter is avg 20.8 pts per game and 4.5 reb. John Reinold is a 50% 3 pt shooter this year and likes to put em up. He avgs 16.5 pts and 4.5 reb as well. I feel that these two will give Michigan trouble. AND Michigan is turn over, turn over, turn over team. Getting Points with BG means they cover with a SU win (everyone knows this) Michigan is 0-6. One of my favorite theories is "Always bet on a streak as you can only lose once, but you can lose several times if you bet against a streak." As you can see I am torn therefore see no reason to play.
First glance at Rutgers vs. Fordham I think Fordham getting 22.5 points is insane. After further studing this could be a blow out in front of a roudy group of fans who are looking to get this kind of team to take some anger out on.....PASS
Denver @ CSU, my first thoughts are take the 14-16 points in Denvers oldest rival. This will be there 150th game. Zeljko Zupic is a solid scorer who has knocked down over 40% of his 3's. They are not afraid to fire away either. Denver has won 3 of their last 4 and are 2-1 ATS while CSU has not been defeated at home (puddin pop schedule though) and are 1-2 ATS. BUT CSU won last year 74-61 and owns Denver at home......PASS
Fresno St minus the points against Pacific was an early lean as well as they have won the last 5 but only won last years game by 8 points 73-65. Everything points to Fresno St when looking at the teams stats, Pacific shooting 36% floor, 31% 3pt, and allowing opponets to shoot 45% floor and 41% 3pt. FSU is hitting 47% from the floor and 37% from 3pt but this an innerstate rival game and 12.5 points could be a lot as I could see FSU winning by 10......PASS
Lastly, my first thoughts were that the BEST game on the card tonight was NIAGRA getting points as I can see this team winning by outright by double digits. This is actually a case where I would usually put them as a 4 or 5 unit play because it is a team that I can see winning by double digits and they are getting points, BUT I just can't justify putting cake on team that is shooting a horrible 38% from the field and giving up 45% from the floor to their opponets. They do not play defense and though Buffalo is also a very bad team I am laying off this one as well......PASS
Kansas vs Tulsa.....This should be a great game to bad nobody decided to pick it up and show it....what the hell is ESPN thinking?
See you tomorrow,
Good Luck.
YAZ
nice record! keep it up man.
