I'm new to betting. During the ncaa/nba season, there were so many games, I bet 15 to 20 plays for small money each day because all of them look easy, but I just barely hit over 50% overall in the end and lost money, good thing I only bet $10 a play or I would have lost my bank. Can someone tell me if I should have bet less games, like where do I draw the line?? Should I tell myself to only pick no more than 10? 7? 5 plays a day?? Or should I just wait for "one" GEM play? For instance, if I have a $1000 to start off with, how should I play it?? Should I feel confident with only my plays or should I always go to boards like this and look over other people's picks and if they are opposite I should lay off? Should I coat-tail one person and never switch to another person if I do copy picks? If I cap games on my own, is it not enough just to look at numbers and injuries and movitation, but actually watch the teams on tv to really know how they are like? Should I buy special cable channels so I can watch any game I get a chance to look at? Should I focus on one team ?? What process do you guys go through to pick what you pick?? I know there are articles on moneymanagement and techniques, but I'm sure not all of you are exactly the same way so I'd like suggestions. Any experience cappers out there can give me advice???
I need advice from the experienced cappers..........
- Thread starter COAT TAIL ME
- Start date
Take your bankroll(BR) and only bet 3% of it
on any play, avoid parlays,teasers and such.
DON'T put more than 15% of BR into action on any given day.While you refine your capping
I would look at a concensus of a few 'sharps'
found around the net.
Lastly, never pay for picks..........gl
on any play, avoid parlays,teasers and such.
DON'T put more than 15% of BR into action on any given day.While you refine your capping
I would look at a concensus of a few 'sharps'
found around the net.
Lastly, never pay for picks..........gl
In general, you should never bet that many games in a day unless you really know what you are doing ...... easy rule to follow:
Bet only the games you see value in. If you have to lay 11-10 on a game, then you have to hit 52.3% of your games to make money. Bet as many games as you have to as long as you "feel" that each game has at least a 52.3% chance of winning. If you feel you have value, then take it, otherwise dont.
How you value a game of course is up to you.
Bet only the games you see value in. If you have to lay 11-10 on a game, then you have to hit 52.3% of your games to make money. Bet as many games as you have to as long as you "feel" that each game has at least a 52.3% chance of winning. If you feel you have value, then take it, otherwise dont.
How you value a game of course is up to you.
One other point to consider, and that is what your impetus is on betting. If you are strictly betting to win enough money to make a living, then only bet the teams you see value in. But, if you are betting strictly for the enjoyment of it, for the thrill of action, then if the "juice" you pay in the long run is worth the price of admission, then keep betting whatever games you wish. At some point the price of admission will get too high relative the enjoyment factor and you will readjust accordingly.
Also, you might give serious consideration to just give one of the mighty fine cappers on this site, your entire bankroll and see what they can do with it....
And read some of the fine articals on the home page. And if you want to pass along your cash to Neemer and myself. Well better not do that.
For starters, blindly following the picks of others is a losing proposition. Sure, everyone goes through hot and cold streaks, but you never know when they're going to start or end. You must have some knowledge about sports, I suspect, or you wouldn't have made the investment in the first place.
I can relate to the dilemma of having a huge slate of games to play; I usually have a pretty extended board, particularly in baseball (of the 30 possible options on Friday's slate, for example --sides and totals for 15 games-- I was on 16 of them, going 10-6).
One strategy that I use when I find my slate of games is too large, especially if I'm on a bad run, is as follows: I go over my selections several times and use a rating system to grade how likely I think the result that I've extrapolated is; any kind of rating system will work; for football, this is particularly easy for me because my handicapping system leaves me with numbers that I can use against the spreads to generate percentages -- a percentage of how likely the outcome is, to cover or not cover -- based on my (ridiculously) meticulous handicapping process; with baseball, a sport I've followed far longer that NFL football, I don't use such a complicated formula; for large baseball boards, I often pick any game at random that I know I will bet for sure, give it any arbitrary number (say 5), and then go over my other selections and rate them compared to the first; my next might get a 4, the next a 6; if I find that I come across a game that I like more than the 4, but less than the 5, then (obviously) I will rate it a 4.5; of course I get several games that end up with identical ratings.
If I'm looking for just a few plays, like if I'm "nowhere to be found" during a stretch, then I'll just stick to the higher rated games.
The first time you go through the games to handicap them, of course you're going to have some idea of how strongly you like each one, and you should keep notes of your leanage and the reasons for such. Going over them again, to reappraise them, just gives you a chance to re-examine your esteem for each play and the reasons behind each.
Any picks that you're hesitant about you probably shouldn't play. However, if you're relatively new to sports wagering then you may be hesitant about all your selections, especially if you're on a losing streak.
One way to "test" your picks is to compare them to selections of other people. This site can be particularly useful because there is usually a 'yesterday's forum in review' type of thread which posts the top 'cappers for the previous day; comparing your selections to theirs, for the current day, may indicate if others are on them as well. Some posters even post their reasons for selections, though most are restricted by time ('capping takes forever, as it is).
As for money management techniques, all I can suggest is to try and develop some discipline. All the theory regarding money management is made with good intentions, but from my experience, and from speaking to others, what one knows in theory and what one does in practice are often two different things. I, for one, probably bet too many games; but, hey ... it's working for me. Relax, stay in control, remember that this is an ongoing endeavour and that you don't need to play every game, or even every day, and slowly but surely you will discover the strategies that best fit you're budget, your expectations, and your personality.
As for what information to use, I believe that there is no such thing as too much information. Team vs team, individual players, weather conditions, streaks, back-to-back situations, injuries, etc. etc. etc. Each sport has particular aspects that are more significant than others. Basketball is the one major, of the four, that I can't comment on. The internet is a fantastic source for information, though, and I certainly recommend checking out as many sports sites as you can and make a list of the useful ones. Each major has its own site: nba.com, mlb.com, nhl.com, and nfl.com. There sites are a useful, but they are not really geared toward gambling; there are countless other sites which are. The resource page at Madjacks has a massive library of useful links that you should check out.
This sheet takes time, and if you have such, and use it wisely, you will undoubtedly find your venture extremely rewarding.
And keep asking questions here. Many of us love the chance to do our schpeel (as you can guess from my response).
Good X on your venture!
Extrapolater
[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 04-21-2001).]
I can relate to the dilemma of having a huge slate of games to play; I usually have a pretty extended board, particularly in baseball (of the 30 possible options on Friday's slate, for example --sides and totals for 15 games-- I was on 16 of them, going 10-6).
One strategy that I use when I find my slate of games is too large, especially if I'm on a bad run, is as follows: I go over my selections several times and use a rating system to grade how likely I think the result that I've extrapolated is; any kind of rating system will work; for football, this is particularly easy for me because my handicapping system leaves me with numbers that I can use against the spreads to generate percentages -- a percentage of how likely the outcome is, to cover or not cover -- based on my (ridiculously) meticulous handicapping process; with baseball, a sport I've followed far longer that NFL football, I don't use such a complicated formula; for large baseball boards, I often pick any game at random that I know I will bet for sure, give it any arbitrary number (say 5), and then go over my other selections and rate them compared to the first; my next might get a 4, the next a 6; if I find that I come across a game that I like more than the 4, but less than the 5, then (obviously) I will rate it a 4.5; of course I get several games that end up with identical ratings.
If I'm looking for just a few plays, like if I'm "nowhere to be found" during a stretch, then I'll just stick to the higher rated games.
The first time you go through the games to handicap them, of course you're going to have some idea of how strongly you like each one, and you should keep notes of your leanage and the reasons for such. Going over them again, to reappraise them, just gives you a chance to re-examine your esteem for each play and the reasons behind each.
Any picks that you're hesitant about you probably shouldn't play. However, if you're relatively new to sports wagering then you may be hesitant about all your selections, especially if you're on a losing streak.
One way to "test" your picks is to compare them to selections of other people. This site can be particularly useful because there is usually a 'yesterday's forum in review' type of thread which posts the top 'cappers for the previous day; comparing your selections to theirs, for the current day, may indicate if others are on them as well. Some posters even post their reasons for selections, though most are restricted by time ('capping takes forever, as it is).
As for money management techniques, all I can suggest is to try and develop some discipline. All the theory regarding money management is made with good intentions, but from my experience, and from speaking to others, what one knows in theory and what one does in practice are often two different things. I, for one, probably bet too many games; but, hey ... it's working for me. Relax, stay in control, remember that this is an ongoing endeavour and that you don't need to play every game, or even every day, and slowly but surely you will discover the strategies that best fit you're budget, your expectations, and your personality.
As for what information to use, I believe that there is no such thing as too much information. Team vs team, individual players, weather conditions, streaks, back-to-back situations, injuries, etc. etc. etc. Each sport has particular aspects that are more significant than others. Basketball is the one major, of the four, that I can't comment on. The internet is a fantastic source for information, though, and I certainly recommend checking out as many sports sites as you can and make a list of the useful ones. Each major has its own site: nba.com, mlb.com, nhl.com, and nfl.com. There sites are a useful, but they are not really geared toward gambling; there are countless other sites which are. The resource page at Madjacks has a massive library of useful links that you should check out.
This sheet takes time, and if you have such, and use it wisely, you will undoubtedly find your venture extremely rewarding.
And keep asking questions here. Many of us love the chance to do our schpeel (as you can guess from my response).
Good X on your venture!
Extrapolater
[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 04-21-2001).]
I am new to this forum, however I have been "capping" for some time now. For every game that I post, it takes me AT LEAST one hour of "capping" to determine even if I like the game. Some nights I will "cap" for 4 hours only to find I like none of the games the next day (I always cap and post the night before). So what I think is that if you are serious about making money and you are playing 10 games per day, than this had better be a full time job! I work 40 hours per week (at least) not to mention my social life(I am only 22 years old) and can maybe cap 10-15 games per week. So assuming that you are in close to the same boat, do not expect to make money playing that many games per day.
There are HUNDREDS of factors that can "predermine" the outcome of a game, how can you explore even half of them for 10 games per day??
This is just my opinion however, and feel that "to each his own" do what works for you.
This happens to be what works for me.
I take a very DIFFERENT approch to "capping" than most, so feel free to dissregard the above!
Best of luck
kdog
There are HUNDREDS of factors that can "predermine" the outcome of a game, how can you explore even half of them for 10 games per day??
This is just my opinion however, and feel that "to each his own" do what works for you.
This happens to be what works for me.
I take a very DIFFERENT approch to "capping" than most, so feel free to dissregard the above!
Best of luck
kdog
too much thoughts to write it all up now ..but just wanted to note ...that if you decide to follow a handicapper , which i believe you CAN and WILL make money off ....providing you pick a good capper....
you MUST follow him for every play , and every day ....cappers even great ones WILL go through bad streaks .and you WILL LOSE money over that time ....therer is no way to determine when that will hapen ...y ou must have enough backup in your bankroll to continue with them ..and you will make over the season ...(providing its a good capper)...do not just take plays once in a while which look good from other cappers...it will not work ....
if you have plays that you like ..look aroudn to see if good cappers like them to give you reassurance if you like ...but dont just go from post to post looking for popular picks ..
i noticed a lot of people do this and then get pissed...
caottailing can make you big money ..but you must do it right
all the luck
shmuly
you MUST follow him for every play , and every day ....cappers even great ones WILL go through bad streaks .and you WILL LOSE money over that time ....therer is no way to determine when that will hapen ...y ou must have enough backup in your bankroll to continue with them ..and you will make over the season ...(providing its a good capper)...do not just take plays once in a while which look good from other cappers...it will not work ....
if you have plays that you like ..look aroudn to see if good cappers like them to give you reassurance if you like ...but dont just go from post to post looking for popular picks ..
i noticed a lot of people do this and then get pissed...
caottailing can make you big money ..but you must do it right
all the luck
shmuly
