i quit...........

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

guys i got hammered yesterday....trends i use for reg. season play do not apply to tourney. so each yr. at tourney time i simply play against the public consensus. i usually do ok with this strategy. but this yr. i had some extra time....so i spent hours and hours going thru stats and past tourney results. i came up with some strong plays....so i thought???.....problem was, just about all my plays were also consensus plays as well.....everyone was on wky, utah,valpo,pepper,gonzaga,miami,usc,...all teams that on paper shouldve had an edge. all went down in flames.
today....i see strong edges with penn,conn,wisc.,myd,pitt,hawaii,
s.ill,mich.st. ..early looks.....it looks like most are on these same plays....especially....penn,s.ill,hawaii,mich.st.....not to memtion....
sports ill. came out yesterday....and if u looked at their picks...
they went 6-10 ats and 0-2 with their dog winners...
so, im gonna go opposite....ill be on cal.,tex.tech.,xavier,nc.st...these 4- plays are all gonna be opposite of what the public percieves as dogs who have a legit shot at winning outrright....hopefully i learned something from yesterdays massacre....we shall see....

gluck, burgh....

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

a couple other things.....i guess what im trying to say is that in the tourney....a high profile event....i believe its best to go-against teams that are being hyped by media and bettors..
for example....gonzaga....how many times did read or hear that they were pissed about being a no.6 seed....they were gonna prove the selection committee wrong....blah blah....yeah right....how many of us got sucked in....a bunch, did. including me.
well today.....regarding pitt.....ive read numerous now in our local paper that pitt. should win by 20 today....with or without brandin knight playing,in fact most think pitt. should rest him , because they wont need him today.....the locals seem to think pitt. just has to show up today to win.....dont ya think pitt. players read the newspapers.....uhhhh....ill be on c. conn. st.....

gluck, burgh...

 

[buddy]

Ken,

I took Cen Conn State and the under.

3 years ago, Corsley Edwards put up 15 against (senior) Iowa State's Marcus Fizer who now plays w/ the Chicago Bulls. That really impressed me.

Here's an Wed Post Gazette article:

buddy's opinion---based on this article, the play on Friday looks like an "under" to me.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Central Connecticut Wants a Little Respect

Blue Devils head to Big Dance with a 19-game winning streak, the nation's longest.

March 12, 2002
By BILL KONIGSBERG
Associated Press Writer


NEW BRITAIN, Conn. (AP) - They aren't fond of being known as the "other team" from Connecticut, or the "other Blue Devils" in the NCAA tournament.


But the label Central Connecticut (27-4, No. 14 seed in the South Region) really hates is "Cinderella."


"You almost feel like a little girl or something," junior guard Damian Battles said Tuesday. "We're a small school, we're not a Pittsburgh, but we don't really consider ourselves Cinderellas."


Central Connecticut enters Friday's game with third-seeded Pittsburgh riding a 19-game winning streak - the longest in the nation. This is its second tournament appearance in three years.


In 1999, the then-15th seeded Blue Devils lost in the first round to Iowa State, 88-78. Corsley Edwards, now a senior, scored 15 points in that game, going up against All-American Marcus Fizer, now with the NBA's Chicago Bulls.


But Central's players know that to gain national respect, they will have to take the next step.


"We have to build a reputation," said forward Ricardo Scott. "Gonzaga made it to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. We have to win one game, then two games the next year."


The Northeast Conference has just one tournament win in its history, a play-in game victory in 1983 by Robert Morris over Georgia Southern. Otherwise, the conference is 0-21, staying within 10 points of their first-round foe only seven times.


To stay in Friday's game, Central will rely on its defense.


Central Connecticut is 22nd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of 62.8 points. Pittsburgh is even better, allowing 61.0, good for 15th best.


"They play very similarly to us. They like to grind it out," said point guard John Alexander. "It's better for us when it's slowed down. We've been doing that all year."


The Blue Devils are 24-4 against teams ranked 110th or worse in the RPI (Rating Percentage Index). Against teams ranked better than 110th, Central Connecticut is 0-3, losing by a combined 66 points.


The team claims that those early season losses are meaningless, since they occurred while the team was still getting a feel for Alexander, their first-year point guard.


Against Pittsburgh, Alexander will be up against Brandin Knight, the Big East co-player of the year. Knight, averaging 15.6 points, 7.1 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 2.4 steals, is battling a knee injury, but hopes to play.


"John Alexander has to contain Knight, but we all have to help out," said Battles. "It's about team defense."


The Blue Devils are not short on confidence heading into Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh on Friday.


"If we go in thinking we can win, we've got a good chance," said forward Ron Robinson.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Please see post below (too many typos in this post)

-- ND

 

[buddy]

Nolan,

"No other sport other than the NFL has more squares betting than this tournament."

Excellent!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Ken:

Your trends work has made me a lot of money over the last two years. I don't mind telling you that my partner and I used your plays early in the season and made $17K in Nov. Other months were up and down, but so far, you are way ahead in our books.
So, keep your head up.

Regarding the NCAAs, please look at my example. I busted my balls last year working on each game and went 6-13 ATS. It was a nightmare. So, this year I appled PURE CONTRARIANISM and took EVERY SINGLE DOG (with a couple of exceptions on teams I was familiar with) for one unit each. I added EVERY DOG on the first half line (going with the EMOTION wins in the short run theory). This trend is a proven moneymaker over the last 4 years. Some years it's close to break even. Others years (like this year, it appears) betting the dogs across the board is very profitable. Again -- my view is that it is a TOTAL FREEROLL using this system. Worse you can do is break even, given that these hyped teams simply are NOT going to cover at a 50+ percent clip. Again, THESE SYPED TEAMS ARE NOT GOING TO COVER MORE THAN 50 PERCENT IN ANY SINGLE YEAR. Historical results seem to prove this.

Forget the stats. This is a whole new ballgame. It took me $2500 to learn that painful lesson last year. The NCAA tournament is ripe with DEAD MONEY. No sport other than the NFL has more squares betting than this tournament. Again -- just think of who the public likes and go the other way. It's a proven formula for success.

I'm not saying the road isn't bumpy at times, but who can argue with what we are seeing?

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[jakejj]

Steel,
Fairly new to this site and this forum, but I can honestly say that your posts are one of the few I browse on a regular basis. This time of year we all can get into the habit of overthinking our bets and second guessing our systems. Don't abandon your system over one lousy day. Keep up the great work and I look forward to reading your posts in the future.

 

[djv]

I guess im confused. We talked about useing 12 and 13 seed dogs. Unless I add wrong/ well money keeps coming in.
One other thing. Unless I was not paying attetion. After any of these seeds win out right. Next game there a go against.

 

[Venom boy]

Hey Steel, been following you for a long time ! Don't give up on us now ! the tournament is for fun ! make some picks , just have some fun, to tough to make any real money !! Hey you been a bitch al year DON"T STOP





















fun

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

ok guys....i had a great afternoon....i went 4-1 overall betting opposite of what i wouldve played. all these plays were also i believe against popular opinion....
djv...i didnt use the trend ure talking about....i guess because i dont buy into it...but it seems like its making money so far...
i did alot research for the tourney....i looked into each teams road record, record vs. tourney teams and looked into past 7-yrs. of how teams do in 1st game of tourney based on what they did in last game...which in most cases was a conf. tourney game...i didnt spend anytime looking into how seeds certain seeds do.which was probably stupid on my part....
anyway for the first time ever ..i spent alot of time researching my picks for the tourney. i was pumped and thought i was gonna clean up.
i went i think 2-8 yesterday....so much for cleaning up.

well today....
i bet california[winner]....was gonna bet penn. based on cals. poor road record and traveling....penn. i believe was a popular choice with the squares. also sports illustraded picked penn to win outright...

i bet xavier[winner]....was gonna bet hawaii based on their strong record vs. tourney teams 5-1 and their recent strong play. plus xavier from a-10 which was weak this yr.....again i believe hawaii was a popular choice and sports ill. picked hawaii as an outright winner..

i bet ncst[winner]....was gonna bet mich.st....because ncst. couldve been shot after strong conf. tourney run and ncst. was only 1-8 vs. tourney teams.....again i believe mich.st was popular betting choice and sports. ill. picked mich.st to win....

i bet hampton[winner]....was gonna bet uconn based on hamptons weak schedule i didnt think they had a chance at all.
again on paper, uconn was the choice.....loser.

i bet c.conn.st[loser]....this play was based on pitt. media articles...musta been atleast 3-writers statingpitt would win by 20...thought pitt. would coast thru this one...c. conn. st...was inside the number all game but faded in last 3-minutes...tough loss....

the reason i keep mentioning sporrts. ill. is because its probably the most read sports magazine in country....right? well if ure a square bettor and u read sports ill. picks...i think ure gonna be more apt to bet teams their touting. so far sports. ill is 0-5 ats on games they picked a dog to win outright....they picked mich.st.
hawaii,penn,west.ky.,pepperdine....all losers with the pts...
all were popular bettors picks.

well tonite im obviously gonna continue with this strategy....

heres what im doing.....
1st off....sports. ill. picked southern ill. to win outright.....i also was going to bet s. ill ....not anymore....im on tex. tech....looking for popular choice s.ill to go down bigtime...this s.ill loss will put sports ill. at 0-6 on their dog picks...

next im on...mcneese st.....was gonna bet miss.st. because mcneese st. is 0-2 vs. major conf. teams this yr....they lost to ala. by 29...on paper they dont have a chance....wrong!

next im on boston college....was gonna bet texas based on b.c. poor record vs. tourney teams2-7...plus sports ill. is on texas...

im on murray st....was gonna bet geo. based on murray st. poor road record 7-8 and 0-2 vs. tourney teams....plus geo. was strong on road 8-6 and 6-3 vs, tournety teams...murray outright!

im also on...stjohns....was gonna play wisc. because we all know stjohns doesnt belong in the tourney...

so heres my plays.....

texas tech.
mcneese st.
boston college.
murray st.
stjohns.

gluck, burgh....

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

not quitting venom boy.....just changing my strategy...i meant i quit trying to figure out these tourney games based on trrends stats etc...alot of work and very poor results...for me anyway.

gluck tonite!!

 

[cooz3]

i think you're onto something....i have from the tipoff yesterday bet evreything opposite of where the line is moving, sometimes however it's not a good indicator...for instance i took xavier but the line dropped in boston from 2.5-3 to around 1.5...yet i knew the public sentiment was on hawaii..the only games i worry about are where the teams are basically home...like texas tonight...but to be honest with you i'm all every side you are on at this point tonight....good luck to both of us