I wish I was smart as some of you........

[NySportsfan]

I just can never bring myself to fade the schillings, pedros, oswalts of the world, yet I guess thats how they figure everyone thinks, and lo and behold clev wins, reds are on their way, and detroit also, 3 fawkin big doggies, dangerous layin that kinda high profile chalk really gotta watch it, good call on those of you on those doggies at least they are either won or are giving a run for the money in the case of detroit, It's been a tough few days for me I dont post here due to time constraints but I like following the boards and inputting when I have something to say, Let's fawkin get em fellas, losing makes me sick

Mike

 

[countinguy]

Mike,

Hang in there buddy, i am on of the people that refuse to lay the high chalk no matter how good the pitcher. I looks for 2 things teams on winning streaks and opposing pitchers that have win streaks against the opposing teams.

look at it this way say ur are betting big unit or whoever at -300 u lay 1 unit, u have to win 3 one unit games to get back even if that game loses. but if i lay 1 unit on the underdog of the same game at say +260, and if i lose i am only out 1 unit, so it would only take me a one unit game at +100 to get it back, and if i do win i win 2.6 units, that is only way i can look at this sport and make money, to hell w/the big name guys, looks at the little name guys that is where the money is at.

gl to u

 

[OnaJ]

NYSports it's a tough adjustment to make because it's not always easy going against some of the game's best pitchers. But once you make that commitment your bankroll will increase big time. And keep in mind it's not that you are always fading Pedro or Schilling or Oswalt, you are just hoping the dog can run up the pitch count and have a shot to win it in the last few innings against the bullpen when the ace is gone. Look at tonight Cinci didn't beat Oswalt they just kept it close enough to have a shot when he left the game. This is how I look at it, once the starter leaves the game, you're looking at just about a "pick game" so if you can at least have a few innings with the dog hanging around at +200 or +220 that's all you can ask for. The starter doesn't always take the loss when he is big chalk and it doesn't always mean the bullpen choked. It just means the underdog did enough to keep the game close and have a few innings to put some runs on the board. I don't think any dog bettor thinks when they are betting a +200 dog that he is betting the better team. But this is baseball and it is so different than all the other sports. If you can at least keep the first 6 innings close then there is so much value in +170 +180 +200 underdogs.

 

[NySportsfan]

great stuff guys, thanks

cg,
I read your threads every day and you're a good capper, despite being a pacers fan I hear ya, I never ever ever would bet a pedro or a johnson laying these insane numbers It's nowhere near worth it with having to win 2 or 3 to get that unit back. my problem is sometimes overlooking a viable dog going against a stud pitcher, ala reds vs oswalt tonight and indians vs schilling, I know hindsights 20-20 but westbrook had been good for clev and that was a good bet with boston having cold bats lately but I didnt have the cajones, I usually am a small dog, small fav type player and a lot of totals, but hitting those occasional bigger dogs is a great feeling, the only rare one I did was cincinnati friday night vs clemens I had watched clemens for yrs here in NY, guy sometimes has a bad start I felt he was due and cincys bats were worth a shot, they got a run top1st and nothing else, oh well, thanks for the insight buddy and whatever else you can add

onaj,
yea, you know where I'm coming from. It's tough to plunk money down on the devil rays facing pedro, or cleveland against curt schilling, but they do come in at times, and your point about the bullpens and hoping for a shot is a very good point, you just hope they hang in the game and can snatch a few off the other bullpen, of course losing by 1 gives you a nice run for your money but it's still a loss, you dont need to hit that many though to break even so thats a plus, I just usually am in the habit of disregarding most dogs past like 165-175, just as I usually dont lay that kind of chalk except in parlays or run lines or a very other rare time, thanks again guys, just has been a tough go at times this chit's humbling for all of us at times and takes a toll on ya mentally, as well as the time aspect, hafta balance it with work, wife, living life, cant let this crap consume ya and it easily can if you let it, and I let it sometimes which you cant do

Mike

 

[BadAngel]

Hang tough, you will be ok. I don't lay big Favs either. Like c-guy said it takes 3 winners to make up 1 loser. You can't take the big dogs all the time either. Look at Bos last night. It is Schilling but Bosox are playing bad. Hous was Oswalt but going for a 4 game sweep. Those are worth shots on the dogs. There are good spots for big dogs to where you at least have a shot. Good luck to you man.

BA