Round 1 play (4pts):
Niclas Fasth to beat Jose Manuel Lara +105 @ Unibet [also available @ Stan James and Extrabet]
Two players with very good course form: Fasth was a winner here in 2006, while Lara has finished no worse than 16th in each of the six times that this course has been used on Tour. That sounds too much of a course specialism to oppose, but even though Pula was used last year, the previous time that it had been used on Tour was in 2007. In more recent history, Lara has been dominating the head-to-head records - he finishes ahead his opponent almost two-thirds of the time no matter how far back in time - and he is coming off a 15th finish in the Open de Espana last week, whereas Lara missed the cut. Fasth leads Lara 16-8 h2h in Spain over the last five years so even though Lara has a great course history in the previous decade, there should be value at plus odds.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Haastrup tb Nixon -120; Willett tb Jamieson -120; Webster tb Van Zyl -110; Canizares A tb Davies -120; Lawrie tb Lara -111; Bourdy tb Willett -115; Canizares A tb Velasco -120; Lawrie tb Dredge +105; Foster tb Lowry -111]