IE (or anyone else?) is there an easy source of past performance for baseball totals, specifically the daily total of runs scored vs the over/under spread? (vs the Mega Runs prop that olympic posts).
I'd like to explore a thought that I had, that the total runs scored (vs o/u total) should fluctuate via swings rather than alternating in a random fashion. That as the whole bullpen of MLB is collectively tired (or fresh) the total should tend to the over or under for several days at a time. If anyone keeps this stat, or knows where I can find it, I'd be grateful.
Possible applications of this information?I'd like to find out after a day of, say 20 runs over the mega-run total, whether the next day the over hit at 65%, and whether the same holds true for under. And whether there is a correlation between how far over and the rate of next day overs. I have a feeling if there is a correlation, it will be stronger with overs rather than unders (due to bullpen fatigue).
Whether a mechanical system of betting the same as the previous day's result (perhaps with an increase in unit size if there is a large over or under) would be profitable.
The only way to test this stuff is to run the figures, and who knows, IE may have already done some similar analysis, and I might be barking up the wrong tree. If I find anything that seems profitable I'll post it. I'm not sure I'm up to adding everyday's totals for a few years and the over/under lines, manually, so am looking for any shortcuts that are available.
IE thanks in anticipation for your help in pointing me where I need to go
cheers
ozball
I'd like to explore a thought that I had, that the total runs scored (vs o/u total) should fluctuate via swings rather than alternating in a random fashion. That as the whole bullpen of MLB is collectively tired (or fresh) the total should tend to the over or under for several days at a time. If anyone keeps this stat, or knows where I can find it, I'd be grateful.
Possible applications of this information?I'd like to find out after a day of, say 20 runs over the mega-run total, whether the next day the over hit at 65%, and whether the same holds true for under. And whether there is a correlation between how far over and the rate of next day overs. I have a feeling if there is a correlation, it will be stronger with overs rather than unders (due to bullpen fatigue).
Whether a mechanical system of betting the same as the previous day's result (perhaps with an increase in unit size if there is a large over or under) would be profitable.
The only way to test this stuff is to run the figures, and who knows, IE may have already done some similar analysis, and I might be barking up the wrong tree. If I find anything that seems profitable I'll post it. I'm not sure I'm up to adding everyday's totals for a few years and the over/under lines, manually, so am looking for any shortcuts that are available.
IE thanks in anticipation for your help in pointing me where I need to go
cheers
ozball
