IE

[DOGS THAT BARK]

got this loaded in your computer yet

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010412/tc/bayes_microsoft_dc_1.html

Bet someone finds a way once it is established and would be curious to see results pertaining to sporting events.


[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 04-12-2001).]

 

[Investment Executive]

actually DTB....been using Bayesian Systems theories for the last two years...

here is a quick overview of how the devations work:
http://www.bayes.com/sbir/sld001.htm


thanks for the heads up...appreciate it

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

In 3 years I have failed to bring ANYTHING to your attention that you were not already 2 steps ahead on but will continue to try

 

[MadJack]

i might as well try reading chinese than try reading this. wtf is this??? lmao!

 

[MadJack]

oh! ok. now THIS clears it up for me

lmao!

 

[djv]

Got it I asked my 9 year old Grand Daughter.

 

[rrc]

Could you guys explain this to us in plain english-if that's possible?

 

[pepin46]

good grief!

i know 2 + 2 is not necessarily 4 in sports gambling. can i assume that all these formulas mean that 2 + 2 is more or less 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and infinity, depending on a complicated set of circumstances?

back to the real world.


pep

 

[snoozing]

Ahh - the honesty of logic. I love it. Most every problem can be solved through logical sequences and proven to be either true or false in a selected environment. The difficulty in maintaining that constant environment is that what is true today may not bee true tomorrow. However, through differential dividing we can move the probability of being more predictable.

Outcome Spurs -6

Bill

------------------
Its not about succeeding, its about handling success.

 

[djv]

Snoozing that is what my 9 year old Grand Daughter said. Spurs -6. This is scarey stuff

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 04-12-2001).]

 

[gart]

Here is my hazy basic English understanding of Bayesian statistics. IE can correct me if I am wrong:

Normally when you try to predict how much a team will win or lose a game by, you take all the data, run it through some analysis and equations and get an answer of Spurs -6.

With Bayesian analysis, you have a bit of data and you guess Spurs -8, Spurs win by 2 so given the result and new data, you adjust your guess for the next game to Spurs - 5, and so on until you have an accurate guess.
So with Bayesian analysis, you make an inform guess then update that guess based on what happened.