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So, twice (and only recently) beaten Minnesota is hosting Illinois this weekend. Looks like another boring Big 10 mismatch that only folks who have already dug their jackets out from the bottom of the hall closet would be interested in. Well, it?s still warm in God?s Country, but I am interested in it anyway and here is why.
Minnesota appears to be having a decent season so far. Heck, it was a great season until they ran into those teams from Michigan in the last couple of weeks. As it stands, they are 5-2 and have outscored their opponents 234-160 (and 51 of that 160 came from the Green S?s). Cupito is healthy, if badly named, and the running game is chugging along nicely without having to depend overly on just one carrier. As a result, they are ranked second among Division 1-A schools in total yards gained and only recently dropped from the Top 25.
On the other hand, Illinois is 2-5 and must be feeling that ?Here we go again? feeling we all associate with Illinois football. Jeez, they are even 0-4 in the Big 10. Definitely ?Here we go again?. To that, add 109th in total defense? Man, oh man is this weekend going to be ugly.
Could be, but I'm not thinking so.
Minnesota may indeed have a good offense. They more or less beat the stuffing out of Toledo, Illinois St, Colorado St, Northwestern and Penn St. In fact, the aggregate score for those games was 193-82. Not a very impressive list, though, and a closer look shows that only Toledo has a winning record (5-2 with wins over E Michigan, W Michigan, Temple, Ball St and Ohio). When Minnesota had to face opponents currently possessing winning records (Michigan and Michigan St, and Michigan St was 3-3 at the time), look what happens:
I?m sure we?ll all agree that even with Barry Bonds-sized dosages of undetectable performance enhancing drugs, Michigan St could not repeat its performance of last weekend (they did lose to Rutgers, after all), but I don?t think you can discount it either. When Minnesota?s collective brain is WAFU, as it usually is after a Michigan loss, anything bad can happen.
And another thing ? Minnesota has been abysmal on defense. Even though they are 5-2 and recently of the top 25, their defense has given up over 3000 yards so far (present discussion of the Illinois game aside, imagine how they are going to end up, since they still have Wisconsin and Iowa to go). They rank 106th out of the 117 Division 1-A schools. If you adjust for their last 2 games and just give them their average yardages yielded over the first 5 games, they would still rank 91st. Their only saving grace this weekend is that, at 109th, Illinois has been more abysmaller.
At least that?s the way it looks initially, but look closer. Illinois is 2-5 overall and 0-4 in the Big 10. Their 2 wins were against 1-AA Florida A&M and against 1-5 MAC powerhouse Western Michigan (hey, at least they?ve beaten SOMEONE from Michigan). Obviously, there?s not a lot of credit to be given for Illinois?s wins. But look at their losses. UCLA (17-35), Purdue (30-38), Wisconsin (7-24), Michigan St (25-38) and Michigan (19-30). First, every one of those teams has a winning record at this point. What we have is a situation where the better looking team (Minnesota) with the winning record has beaten 1 team with a winning record and the worse looking team (Illinois) has only lost to teams with winning records (2 with 1 loss and 1 undefeated at that). Second, let me point out that the 18 points that Illinois is getting against Minnesota would have been enough to prevent any of these losses (I leave it up to others to argue that Minnesota is better than every one of these teams). Oh, and one other thing before I move on to actually trying to figure out what is going to happen rather than try to justify why you should even look at this game. Illinois, yes 2-5 Illinois, has that 27th ranked total offense. Are you confident that if the Minnesota and Illinois schedules were reversed, Minnesota could do as well?
So these types of things are what got me a-ganderin? this game that I would normally have absolutely no interest in. My methodology for handicapping games is as follows. I only look at games between teams in the same conference, and only after they have had a chance to play a few conference games. I look at how a team?s offense has plays against their opponent?s defense (with their personnel at the time) and try to project their general offensive stats (with the current personnel). I then look at how successful the team has been, in conference play, at converting stats to points and how pig-headed the coach is about their offensive strategy. From this, I attempt to predict how many points a team will score. I am limited to doing this only for games later in the season and for teams which have already played ?similar? conference opponents. So here we go.
Minnesota should be able to rush to their heart?s content against Illinois and in games against poor rush defenses, Cupito has usually been able to capitalize with a couple of TD passes. If we assume that Minnesota puts up 300 yards rushing and Cupito comes in with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, and that Minnesota continues to be a little worse than average at converting passing yards to points, I estimate this performance to be worth 27-42 points.
Illinois should also be able to rush at will. There is a big difference, though, between the Illinois and the Minnesota coaching style. If Illinois can rush successfully, then they tend to rush. Minnesota has Pat Hill Syndrome (they insist on attacking the opponent?s defensive strength). Illinois should control the ball better in this game than they have in any of their 4 conference losses and hold down scoring a bit. Furthermore, while Illinois does rush when they can, the best indicator of their score has been the strength of the opposing pass defense. The Minnesota pass defense is significantly worse than any of the conference pass defenses Illinois has faced so far, by an average of 90 yards per game (for completeness?s sake, the Minnesota rush defense is about 45 yards per game worse). Based on all of this, I blindly guess that Illinois will put up about 200 yards rushing and 250 yards passing, with 2 TD?s and an INT. Illinois has been about average at converting passing yards to points, so I figure that Illinois will put up about 23-35 points.
So where does this all lead? Illinois has played just fine on the road and I can?t see the Minnesota home field advantage materializing in this game since Minnesota is, for all intents and purposes, out of the Big 10 championship picture. It looks to me like Minnesota should be roughly a 5-6 point favorite. Taking Illinois and getting 18 seems like a good deal to me. This is a 1 unit bet, as I am at the earliest point in the season that I handicap games this way. If I?m correct, that?s great and if I?m wrong, I?m man enough to admit that you were foolish to listen to me.
One caveat, if Turner makes one of those ?let?s make the future now since all else is lost? decisions and starts Chris Pazan, all bets are off.
So, twice (and only recently) beaten Minnesota is hosting Illinois this weekend. Looks like another boring Big 10 mismatch that only folks who have already dug their jackets out from the bottom of the hall closet would be interested in. Well, it?s still warm in God?s Country, but I am interested in it anyway and here is why.
Minnesota appears to be having a decent season so far. Heck, it was a great season until they ran into those teams from Michigan in the last couple of weeks. As it stands, they are 5-2 and have outscored their opponents 234-160 (and 51 of that 160 came from the Green S?s). Cupito is healthy, if badly named, and the running game is chugging along nicely without having to depend overly on just one carrier. As a result, they are ranked second among Division 1-A schools in total yards gained and only recently dropped from the Top 25.
On the other hand, Illinois is 2-5 and must be feeling that ?Here we go again? feeling we all associate with Illinois football. Jeez, they are even 0-4 in the Big 10. Definitely ?Here we go again?. To that, add 109th in total defense? Man, oh man is this weekend going to be ugly.
Could be, but I'm not thinking so.
Minnesota may indeed have a good offense. They more or less beat the stuffing out of Toledo, Illinois St, Colorado St, Northwestern and Penn St. In fact, the aggregate score for those games was 193-82. Not a very impressive list, though, and a closer look shows that only Toledo has a winning record (5-2 with wins over E Michigan, W Michigan, Temple, Ball St and Ohio). When Minnesota had to face opponents currently possessing winning records (Michigan and Michigan St, and Michigan St was 3-3 at the time), look what happens:
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First 5 games Last 2
Avg Rushing Yards 329 146
Avg Passing Yards 187 184
Avg Points Scored 39 21
Avg Points Yeilded 16 39And another thing ? Minnesota has been abysmal on defense. Even though they are 5-2 and recently of the top 25, their defense has given up over 3000 yards so far (present discussion of the Illinois game aside, imagine how they are going to end up, since they still have Wisconsin and Iowa to go). They rank 106th out of the 117 Division 1-A schools. If you adjust for their last 2 games and just give them their average yardages yielded over the first 5 games, they would still rank 91st. Their only saving grace this weekend is that, at 109th, Illinois has been more abysmaller.
At least that?s the way it looks initially, but look closer. Illinois is 2-5 overall and 0-4 in the Big 10. Their 2 wins were against 1-AA Florida A&M and against 1-5 MAC powerhouse Western Michigan (hey, at least they?ve beaten SOMEONE from Michigan). Obviously, there?s not a lot of credit to be given for Illinois?s wins. But look at their losses. UCLA (17-35), Purdue (30-38), Wisconsin (7-24), Michigan St (25-38) and Michigan (19-30). First, every one of those teams has a winning record at this point. What we have is a situation where the better looking team (Minnesota) with the winning record has beaten 1 team with a winning record and the worse looking team (Illinois) has only lost to teams with winning records (2 with 1 loss and 1 undefeated at that). Second, let me point out that the 18 points that Illinois is getting against Minnesota would have been enough to prevent any of these losses (I leave it up to others to argue that Minnesota is better than every one of these teams). Oh, and one other thing before I move on to actually trying to figure out what is going to happen rather than try to justify why you should even look at this game. Illinois, yes 2-5 Illinois, has that 27th ranked total offense. Are you confident that if the Minnesota and Illinois schedules were reversed, Minnesota could do as well?
So these types of things are what got me a-ganderin? this game that I would normally have absolutely no interest in. My methodology for handicapping games is as follows. I only look at games between teams in the same conference, and only after they have had a chance to play a few conference games. I look at how a team?s offense has plays against their opponent?s defense (with their personnel at the time) and try to project their general offensive stats (with the current personnel). I then look at how successful the team has been, in conference play, at converting stats to points and how pig-headed the coach is about their offensive strategy. From this, I attempt to predict how many points a team will score. I am limited to doing this only for games later in the season and for teams which have already played ?similar? conference opponents. So here we go.
Minnesota should be able to rush to their heart?s content against Illinois and in games against poor rush defenses, Cupito has usually been able to capitalize with a couple of TD passes. If we assume that Minnesota puts up 300 yards rushing and Cupito comes in with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, and that Minnesota continues to be a little worse than average at converting passing yards to points, I estimate this performance to be worth 27-42 points.
Illinois should also be able to rush at will. There is a big difference, though, between the Illinois and the Minnesota coaching style. If Illinois can rush successfully, then they tend to rush. Minnesota has Pat Hill Syndrome (they insist on attacking the opponent?s defensive strength). Illinois should control the ball better in this game than they have in any of their 4 conference losses and hold down scoring a bit. Furthermore, while Illinois does rush when they can, the best indicator of their score has been the strength of the opposing pass defense. The Minnesota pass defense is significantly worse than any of the conference pass defenses Illinois has faced so far, by an average of 90 yards per game (for completeness?s sake, the Minnesota rush defense is about 45 yards per game worse). Based on all of this, I blindly guess that Illinois will put up about 200 yards rushing and 250 yards passing, with 2 TD?s and an INT. Illinois has been about average at converting passing yards to points, so I figure that Illinois will put up about 23-35 points.
So where does this all lead? Illinois has played just fine on the road and I can?t see the Minnesota home field advantage materializing in this game since Minnesota is, for all intents and purposes, out of the Big 10 championship picture. It looks to me like Minnesota should be roughly a 5-6 point favorite. Taking Illinois and getting 18 seems like a good deal to me. This is a 1 unit bet, as I am at the earliest point in the season that I handicap games this way. If I?m correct, that?s great and if I?m wrong, I?m man enough to admit that you were foolish to listen to me.
One caveat, if Turner makes one of those ?let?s make the future now since all else is lost? decisions and starts Chris Pazan, all bets are off.
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