These teams clearly present an over achieving vs. under achieving scenario. To date, OSU has drastically over performed all pre season forecasts and actually sits atop the Big 10 conference standings. To date, Illinois has under performed all pre season forecasts and is tied for 4th place in the Big 10 standings.
Traditionally and quite paradoxically, as teams enter into the meat of their seasons, over achievers will come down a notch and under achievers seem to pick it up a notch. As such, we have a very strong notion that OSU and Illinois will fall into this same pattern.
Obviously, this is a huge game and both coaches know tournament seedings hang in the balance. With that being said, this game is much bigger for fourth place Illinois than it is for first place Ohio St. The odds makers have instilled OSU as a very small favorite and seem to be inviting folks to back them tonight. Since Illinois started the season as an absolute money burner, the betting public at large has turned off to betting them. Conversely, OSU has become a public darling posting an 11-4 ATS mark. While this may have you believing OSU is the play, we have been around for quite a while and know the smell of a trap
Lets review the facts most will look at. Before their loss at Minnesota this past Saturday, OSU was on a 13 game Big Ten winning streak. OSU plays excellent defense and has an outstanding perimeter game. OSU ranks seventh in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 59.7 points per game and are led by a very experienced senior in Brian Brown. In addition, Ohio State is shooting 49.5% from the field (#1 in the Big 10), is sitting atop the Big Ten standings, and has only lost one home game all season long. Though these facts seemingly are a recipe for the OSU home-cooked win, we are not quite convinced.
We say this for several reasons. First and foremost, the return of Lucas Johnson and forward Demir Krupalija from injury will start paying dividends for Illinois. With a few games now under their belt, our sources confirm we can expect a drastic difference in the overall Illinois team play. We expect their emotional and defensive leader Johnson to have a particularly large impact. With these two back in the mix, a once thin Illinois bench will again start to contribute. We cannot emphasize enough how much this earlier void had hurt the Illinois cause. Illinois started the season as Big 10 favorites for a reason, and we expect them to live up to those forecasts with a very good effort down the stretch.
Our analysis indicates Illinois is exactly the type of team OSU will have trouble with. Illinois leads the Big Ten in scoring and is fourteenth overall in the nation in that department. The way to beat Ohio State is with a great perimeter defense and with solid three point shooting ? both of which Illinois has. Arguably, if you can shut down the OSU guards, you shut down OSU. As such, we expect Frank Williams (3rd in the Big 10 in steals) and Co to put wraps on the Ohio State backcourt.
Illinois senior-laden team are no strangers to success in Columbus, as they have now won six of their past eight at this site. We must also consider that Ohio State is playing their third game in five days and that is not good news against an Illinois team hungry to atone for a two-point loss to these Buckeyes last year. All in all, there is no other way to look than taking points with a more desperate, a more athletic, and an overall better team out for revenge and tournament seeding.
Ill+1 is my pick
