Teams playing on the road as a favorite of 7 or more after two double digit home wins are 34-4 SU (+13.9) and 27-11 ATS since the 2006 season. Teams that beat their opponent already in the same season are 44-20-1 ATS when playing as a road favorite after two double digit wins since the 2007 season.
Teams playing in back to back matchups against the same opponent are 15-3 SU (+7.6 ppg) and 12-5 ATS since the 2010 season on the road as a favorite when they won the home game by double digits. In these cases where they win the game, the average margin is 11.8 ppg.
Finally, one of the best pieces of advise I have ever received - never bet a dog unless you think they can win SU. Road favorites that have won SU this season have covered the spread 82.7% of the time. The Thunder have won 9 straight against the Suns and have covered the last 5. They have a day off tomorrow, and they are rested. There is no big ?play against? angle for them.
Does that mean the Suns won?t cover, or possibly win SU? Of course not - they very well could. I'm sure the Suns will give their best effort. Everyone wants to beat the Thunder. But to me, unless it is a really good situation, there is probably a better place to put your big bet of the day than against one of the best teams in the league that are 31-19 ATS this season. I?m not betting either way on this game. There are 8 other NBA games, and tons of NCAA games on the board today. Why not choose another one, where you are not taking the dregs of the NBA against on of the best, that is playing like THE best right now?
Not trying to talk you out of it, because I always feel bad if I talk someone out of a winner, but just giving my thoughts and what I found on it. Good luck with what you choose!
