I'm sorry, AR
- Thread starter smurphy
- Start date
i'm sorry to hear that...really.
i read today in the republic that real estate is coming back in arizona....buy.
be careful son....don't count on me to bail you out.
Nothing will be strong for a while. We are very vulnerable. The 'R' word keeps coming up. I definitely don't see a real estate rally. Too many people cancelling their buys and getting upside down on their mortgages.
...And here we are at the mercy of China. There once was a day when our market did not imitate theirs. ...Not anymore.
Maybe it's time for me to move south and live like a rich republican jerk. I'll send a postcard, dad.
...And here we are at the mercy of China. There once was a day when our market did not imitate theirs. ...Not anymore.
Maybe it's time for me to move south and live like a rich republican jerk. I'll send a postcard, dad.
Dammit. I'm fairly ignorant about real estate, but does that mean that prices will be even higher in a little more than two years from now when I graduate and will be looking to buy in the area? I wish I could convince my Mom and stepdad to buy something down here as an investment.
the valley real estate market...
the valley real estate market...
at this point i can't find the article i was reading but here is something.....btw the article that i did read stated that houses are stabilizing & in some areas are starting to rise....
Home permits hit 5-month high
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Feb. 27, 2007 01:07 PM
Home building across metropolitan Phoenix hit a five-month high in January, signaling that homes finally could be selling and more buyers are getting back into the market.
Single-family permits climbed to 2,876 last month, according to RL Brown's Phoenix Housing Market Letter. That's the highest level since August 2006, when builders pulled permits for 3,014 new homes.
Brown attributes the uptick in housing construction to builders cutting prices on homes and drawing buyers to some fringe communities once again.
In January 2006, 4,423 single-family permits were issued Valleywide, but early last year the market was still operating at the frenzied pace of 2005 that couldn't be sustained.
"We have seen some life returning to the new home market, albeit at a pace far below which we have been accustomed to in recent times," said Brown in his February newsletter.
the valley real estate market...
at this point i can't find the article i was reading but here is something.....btw the article that i did read stated that houses are stabilizing & in some areas are starting to rise....
Home permits hit 5-month high
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Feb. 27, 2007 01:07 PM
Home building across metropolitan Phoenix hit a five-month high in January, signaling that homes finally could be selling and more buyers are getting back into the market.
Single-family permits climbed to 2,876 last month, according to RL Brown's Phoenix Housing Market Letter. That's the highest level since August 2006, when builders pulled permits for 3,014 new homes.
Brown attributes the uptick in housing construction to builders cutting prices on homes and drawing buyers to some fringe communities once again.
In January 2006, 4,423 single-family permits were issued Valleywide, but early last year the market was still operating at the frenzied pace of 2005 that couldn't be sustained.
"We have seen some life returning to the new home market, albeit at a pace far below which we have been accustomed to in recent times," said Brown in his February newsletter.
here is another article...
here is another article...
Existing home sales rise in January but prices keep falling
MARTIN CRUTSINGER
Associated Press
Feb. 27, 2007 10:48 AM
WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes rose in January by the largest amount in two years, raising hopes that the worst of the severe slump in housing may be coming to an end. Median home prices, however, fell for a sixth straight month.
The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that sales of previously owned homes rose by 3 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since a 3.3 percent advance in January 2005, a time when housing was roaring toward the peak of its five-year boom.
The median price of an existing home sold in January dropped to $210,600, a decline of 3.1 percent from a year ago. It marked the sixth straight month that the median price has been down compared with a year ago. The January decline was the third-biggest drop in history.
In other economic news, the Conference Board, a private research group, said consumer confidence rose in February to its highest level in more than five years while the Commerce Department reported demand for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by a sharper-than-expected 7.8 percent in January, the biggest drop in three months.
The New York-based Conference Board said its confidence index increased to 112.5 this month, a bigger than expected rise from a February reading of 110.2. The gain reflected increased optimism about jobs and business prospects.
Wall Street ignored the improvement in consumer confidence and the jump in existing home sales to focus instead on a plunge in the Chinese stock market, which had been at record highs. At mid-day, the Dow Jones industrial average was down by more than 170 points.
The concern among investors is that a slowdown in the United States and China, two of the world's fastest growing economies, could result in weaker global growth.
Those concerns were heightened by comments former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made on Monday when he said that a recession at the end of this year was a possibility although not the most likely outcome expected by forecasters.
Most private economists believe that as long as the housing slump does not deepen, the economy should rebound as 2007 goes forward.
"It is temping to say the worst is now behind us, but that would be premature," said Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight. He said his forecast was for existing home sales to continue to fall in 2007 but then stage a rebound in 2008.
Analysts said that the decline in home prices was actually an encouraging sign that home sellers are starting to adjust their asking-price down and this should help speed the correction in housing.
"For the last several months I have been hemming and hawing on whether we have reached bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors. He said that he believed sales have now stabilized after hitting a bottom in September.
But Lereah cautioned that the warm weather in December boosted home closings in January, the activity that is tracked in the Realtors report.
By region of the country, sales rose the most in the West, up 5.6 percent, followed by gains of 4.8 percent in the Midwest and 2 percent in the South. Sales in the Northeast were unchanged in January compared to December.
The Commerce Department report said the 7.8 percent drop in durable goods orders was led by an 18 percent plunge in transportation orders, reflecting a big decline in orders for commercial jetliners and continued weakness in auto manufacturing.
Demand for commercial aircraft fell by 60.3 percent after having soared by 31.3 percent the previous month. Boeing Co. took orders for just 13 planes in January after having seen orders soar to 212 in December. Aircraft orders are extremely volatile from month to month.
But there also was weakness in a number of other areas from heavy machinery to computers. Demand for motor vehicles and parts falling by 5.1 percent.
"Growth in the manufacturing sector ground to a halt in September 2006 and continues to struggle as consumers rethink big-ticket spending and businesses turn risk adverse in their capital spending," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.
Demand for non-defense capital goods orders fell by a record 19.9 percent in January. This category is closely watched for signals it can send about the plans businesses have to expand and modernize their operations. Business investment has been slowing in recent months.
here is another article...
Existing home sales rise in January but prices keep falling
MARTIN CRUTSINGER
Associated Press
Feb. 27, 2007 10:48 AM
WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes rose in January by the largest amount in two years, raising hopes that the worst of the severe slump in housing may be coming to an end. Median home prices, however, fell for a sixth straight month.
The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that sales of previously owned homes rose by 3 percent last month, the biggest one-month increase since a 3.3 percent advance in January 2005, a time when housing was roaring toward the peak of its five-year boom.
The median price of an existing home sold in January dropped to $210,600, a decline of 3.1 percent from a year ago. It marked the sixth straight month that the median price has been down compared with a year ago. The January decline was the third-biggest drop in history.
In other economic news, the Conference Board, a private research group, said consumer confidence rose in February to its highest level in more than five years while the Commerce Department reported demand for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by a sharper-than-expected 7.8 percent in January, the biggest drop in three months.
The New York-based Conference Board said its confidence index increased to 112.5 this month, a bigger than expected rise from a February reading of 110.2. The gain reflected increased optimism about jobs and business prospects.
Wall Street ignored the improvement in consumer confidence and the jump in existing home sales to focus instead on a plunge in the Chinese stock market, which had been at record highs. At mid-day, the Dow Jones industrial average was down by more than 170 points.
The concern among investors is that a slowdown in the United States and China, two of the world's fastest growing economies, could result in weaker global growth.
Those concerns were heightened by comments former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made on Monday when he said that a recession at the end of this year was a possibility although not the most likely outcome expected by forecasters.
Most private economists believe that as long as the housing slump does not deepen, the economy should rebound as 2007 goes forward.
"It is temping to say the worst is now behind us, but that would be premature," said Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight. He said his forecast was for existing home sales to continue to fall in 2007 but then stage a rebound in 2008.
Analysts said that the decline in home prices was actually an encouraging sign that home sellers are starting to adjust their asking-price down and this should help speed the correction in housing.
"For the last several months I have been hemming and hawing on whether we have reached bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors. He said that he believed sales have now stabilized after hitting a bottom in September.
But Lereah cautioned that the warm weather in December boosted home closings in January, the activity that is tracked in the Realtors report.
By region of the country, sales rose the most in the West, up 5.6 percent, followed by gains of 4.8 percent in the Midwest and 2 percent in the South. Sales in the Northeast were unchanged in January compared to December.
The Commerce Department report said the 7.8 percent drop in durable goods orders was led by an 18 percent plunge in transportation orders, reflecting a big decline in orders for commercial jetliners and continued weakness in auto manufacturing.
Demand for commercial aircraft fell by 60.3 percent after having soared by 31.3 percent the previous month. Boeing Co. took orders for just 13 planes in January after having seen orders soar to 212 in December. Aircraft orders are extremely volatile from month to month.
But there also was weakness in a number of other areas from heavy machinery to computers. Demand for motor vehicles and parts falling by 5.1 percent.
"Growth in the manufacturing sector ground to a halt in September 2006 and continues to struggle as consumers rethink big-ticket spending and businesses turn risk adverse in their capital spending," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.
Demand for non-defense capital goods orders fell by a record 19.9 percent in January. This category is closely watched for signals it can send about the plans businesses have to expand and modernize their operations. Business investment has been slowing in recent months.
Home prices fall most in 14 years
Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:33 PM ET Feb 27, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest rate since 1992, and are up just 0.4% in the past year, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday in the inaugural release of the national Case-Shiller price index.
A year ago, home prices were rising 14.6% year-over-year.
"Annual changes in home prices are either in decline, flat or yielding negative returns across all markets," said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, which produces the index for S&P. "All metro areas are showing smaller annual returns than those reported for November."
"Given the overhang of supply and clear signs of deceleration in home prices, we continue to expect a nationwide home price decline of about 3% in 2007," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note. They called the Case-Shiller index "probably the highest-quality measure of home prices."
Home prices in the top 10 metro areas fell 0.8% in December, the largest monthly drop since 1991. Prices in the 10 cities are unchanged for the year.
Home prices in the 20 metro areas fell 0.7% in December, the largest decline in the seven year history of the index. Prices in the 20 cities are up 0.5% in the past year.
On an inflation-adjusted basis, national home prices are down 1.6% in the past year. Prices in the 10 cities are down 2% and prices in the 20 cities are down 1.5%.
Nominal prices in 18 of 20 cities fell in the fourth quarter compared with the third. Only Seattle and Portland managed gains. Nine of the 20 cities showed lower prices at the end of the year than at the beginning: Detroit, Boston, San Diego, Washington, Cleveland, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Denver and New York.
Among the 20 cities, the biggest gains in the past year were in Seattle (up 12.1%), Portland (up 9.9%) and Charlotte (up 6.7%). The biggest losses in the past year were recorded in Detroit (down 5.9%), Boston (down 5.1%) and San Diego (down 4.2%.
Prices had been rising at unprecedented double-digit rates during the housing boom in 2003 to early 2006.
In other reports, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes rose 3% in January. See full story.
Orders for durable goods fell 7.8% in January, the Commerce Department reported. See full story.
Also, consumer confidence rose to a 51/2-year high in January, the Conference Board reported. See full story.
How Case-Shiller works
The Case-Shiller indexes attempt to overcome flaws in other measures of home prices by comparing actual arms-length transactions on the same single-family home. New homes and condos are excluded.
Median prices for new and existing homes can be affected by the mix of homes sold. For instance, if relatively more homes are sold in high-priced markets, the median sales price would show an increase even though actual value of any particular home would not have changed.
The quarterly price index reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight also compares price changes for the same homes, but only covers homes with mortgages that conform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits, currently $417,000 or less. In addition, the OFHEO index includes mortgage refinancings that are valued by an appraiser, not the market.
The latest OFHEO index showed prices had risen 7.7% year-on-year through the third quarter. For purchases only, the OFHEO index was up 6% year-on-year, the lowest in seven years. Fourth-quarter data will be released Thursday.
Other price indexes are based on the homes sold in a particuarl period. The median price of a new home was down 1.5% year-on-year through December. The median price of an existing single-family home was down 3.1% in the 12 months ending in January.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:33 PM ET Feb 27, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest rate since 1992, and are up just 0.4% in the past year, Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday in the inaugural release of the national Case-Shiller price index.
A year ago, home prices were rising 14.6% year-over-year.
"Annual changes in home prices are either in decline, flat or yielding negative returns across all markets," said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, which produces the index for S&P. "All metro areas are showing smaller annual returns than those reported for November."
"Given the overhang of supply and clear signs of deceleration in home prices, we continue to expect a nationwide home price decline of about 3% in 2007," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note. They called the Case-Shiller index "probably the highest-quality measure of home prices."
Home prices in the top 10 metro areas fell 0.8% in December, the largest monthly drop since 1991. Prices in the 10 cities are unchanged for the year.
Home prices in the 20 metro areas fell 0.7% in December, the largest decline in the seven year history of the index. Prices in the 20 cities are up 0.5% in the past year.
On an inflation-adjusted basis, national home prices are down 1.6% in the past year. Prices in the 10 cities are down 2% and prices in the 20 cities are down 1.5%.
Nominal prices in 18 of 20 cities fell in the fourth quarter compared with the third. Only Seattle and Portland managed gains. Nine of the 20 cities showed lower prices at the end of the year than at the beginning: Detroit, Boston, San Diego, Washington, Cleveland, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Denver and New York.
Among the 20 cities, the biggest gains in the past year were in Seattle (up 12.1%), Portland (up 9.9%) and Charlotte (up 6.7%). The biggest losses in the past year were recorded in Detroit (down 5.9%), Boston (down 5.1%) and San Diego (down 4.2%.
Prices had been rising at unprecedented double-digit rates during the housing boom in 2003 to early 2006.
In other reports, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes rose 3% in January. See full story.
Orders for durable goods fell 7.8% in January, the Commerce Department reported. See full story.
Also, consumer confidence rose to a 51/2-year high in January, the Conference Board reported. See full story.
How Case-Shiller works
The Case-Shiller indexes attempt to overcome flaws in other measures of home prices by comparing actual arms-length transactions on the same single-family home. New homes and condos are excluded.
Median prices for new and existing homes can be affected by the mix of homes sold. For instance, if relatively more homes are sold in high-priced markets, the median sales price would show an increase even though actual value of any particular home would not have changed.
The quarterly price index reported by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight also compares price changes for the same homes, but only covers homes with mortgages that conform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits, currently $417,000 or less. In addition, the OFHEO index includes mortgage refinancings that are valued by an appraiser, not the market.
The latest OFHEO index showed prices had risen 7.7% year-on-year through the third quarter. For purchases only, the OFHEO index was up 6% year-on-year, the lowest in seven years. Fourth-quarter data will be released Thursday.
Other price indexes are based on the homes sold in a particuarl period. The median price of a new home was down 1.5% year-on-year through December. The median price of an existing single-family home was down 3.1% in the 12 months ending in January.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
