Let me preface this by saying I'm not knowledgable about the NBA (or a lot of things), I'm a numbers guy through and through. I've found that numbers don't lie, until they do. If you followed any of my MLB threads this year you know I like to discuss WHY a play is being made more than just THAT a play is being made.
In any event, let's talk about Indiana and Cleveland because I see the numbers as way off in this one and someone with a lot of knowledge of the NBA can likely set me straight before I (in the words of KOD) TITFD!
I see this as two teams that play a similar pace of play so neither will look to dictate the pace of play but rather go with the flow.
Possessions per game:
IND 99.7
CLE 99.28
For the record I consider anything within .5 possessions per game similar.
IND scores on average 105.88 points per 100 poss. and CLE gives up 104.25 per 100 poss. so I think putting IND at 105 points is pretty fair.
CLE scores 106.5/100 and IND gives up 108.5/100 so putting CLE at 107 seems fair.
Based on pace of play alone I have this game at
CLE 107
IND 105
Typically I throw these numbers out if the pace of play has an extreme difference because it's up to each team to try and control the pace they want to play at and you have to decide which team will do that. In this case I think we can use the numbers.
Now, we have to throw in quality if opponent along the way which also effects those numbers. Well, they both play in the same division so I'm not sure how much of an advantage either has here. Maybe someone else can chime in.
Looking at recent form CLE, well, sucks. 1-9 in their last 10 while IND is 7-3 in their last 10.
Let's look closer at IND last 5 games. Going 4-1 they scored:
105 against TOR who plays at a similar but slightly higher pace of .73 more
119 against CHI similar pace
116 against ATL who plays a much higher pace
125 against DET similar pace
125 against ATL, again higher pace
I'd say IND benefits from a faster pace of play.
CLE last 5 lost them all scoring:
98 against NOP much quicker pace
91 against UTA slightly faster pace
92 against MIA similar pace
108 against ATL much faster pace
94 against MIA similar pace
Interestingly CLE's last win was 92-91 against IND.
Recently CLE is scoring well below what we would expect from above and IND is scoring above what we would expect, in fact in the two games of their last 5 they average 14 points higher than we expect in games with teams of similar pace.
CLE 14 points the other way with similar pace teams. My rule of thumb is 50% of those numbers so we adjust the score above by 7 points each way and come up with a projected final score of :
IND 112
CLE 100
Defensively if we work through the same process we adjust CLE's score -4.5 points and IND's score +6 points for a final projected score of
IND 118
CLE 95
I see this as an ass kicking that comes in just under the posted total of 228 but with IND easily covering the line of -10.5.
With IND likely resting players in the final quarter and CLE perhaps hopelessly behind I'm comfortable betting:
UNDER 228
IND -105
Thoughts?
PLEASE SEE POSTS BELOW FOR CORRECTION ON THE TOTAL
In any event, let's talk about Indiana and Cleveland because I see the numbers as way off in this one and someone with a lot of knowledge of the NBA can likely set me straight before I (in the words of KOD) TITFD!
I see this as two teams that play a similar pace of play so neither will look to dictate the pace of play but rather go with the flow.
Possessions per game:
IND 99.7
CLE 99.28
For the record I consider anything within .5 possessions per game similar.
IND scores on average 105.88 points per 100 poss. and CLE gives up 104.25 per 100 poss. so I think putting IND at 105 points is pretty fair.
CLE scores 106.5/100 and IND gives up 108.5/100 so putting CLE at 107 seems fair.
Based on pace of play alone I have this game at
CLE 107
IND 105
Typically I throw these numbers out if the pace of play has an extreme difference because it's up to each team to try and control the pace they want to play at and you have to decide which team will do that. In this case I think we can use the numbers.
Now, we have to throw in quality if opponent along the way which also effects those numbers. Well, they both play in the same division so I'm not sure how much of an advantage either has here. Maybe someone else can chime in.
Looking at recent form CLE, well, sucks. 1-9 in their last 10 while IND is 7-3 in their last 10.
Let's look closer at IND last 5 games. Going 4-1 they scored:
105 against TOR who plays at a similar but slightly higher pace of .73 more
119 against CHI similar pace
116 against ATL who plays a much higher pace
125 against DET similar pace
125 against ATL, again higher pace
I'd say IND benefits from a faster pace of play.
CLE last 5 lost them all scoring:
98 against NOP much quicker pace
91 against UTA slightly faster pace
92 against MIA similar pace
108 against ATL much faster pace
94 against MIA similar pace
Interestingly CLE's last win was 92-91 against IND.
Recently CLE is scoring well below what we would expect from above and IND is scoring above what we would expect, in fact in the two games of their last 5 they average 14 points higher than we expect in games with teams of similar pace.
CLE 14 points the other way with similar pace teams. My rule of thumb is 50% of those numbers so we adjust the score above by 7 points each way and come up with a projected final score of :
IND 112
CLE 100
Defensively if we work through the same process we adjust CLE's score -4.5 points and IND's score +6 points for a final projected score of
IND 118
CLE 95
I see this as an ass kicking that comes in just under the posted total of 228 but with IND easily covering the line of -10.5.
With IND likely resting players in the final quarter and CLE perhaps hopelessly behind I'm comfortable betting:
UNDER 228
IND -105
Thoughts?
PLEASE SEE POSTS BELOW FOR CORRECTION ON THE TOTAL
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