Analyzing and critiquing the "Independent" teams in the NCAA is not necessarily the easiest thing to do. When one dissects a conference, team by team comparisons are simple. Contrasting styles can be highlighted and discussed, and one can easily look ahead at the conference schedule and venture a reasonable guess at how the cards will fall.
With Independent teams, comparisons are not nearly as easy. One cannot say the team is "middle-of-the pack" or might "challenge for the title" if things go their way. Instead as the reviewer, I must analyze each team individually. I must compare each team to its opponents and generically to teams nationwide in similar situations.
That said, I will now attempt to provide you with a thorough review of each of the 6 Independent teams playing 1A ball this year. Though it will lack many of the comparisons and critiques that can be found in a conference preview, I hope it will provide you with ample information on the teams included:
1. Notre Dame
After a rare losing season in 2001, the Irish look to rebound in 2002. The Irish should fare better than 5-6 this year but a great deal will be riding on how quickly the Irish can adopt new Coach Ty Willingham's "West-Coast" offense. (Coming out of the Spring Drills Willingham remarked that the offense was only 20% installed.)
With the transfer of Matt LoVecchio, Junior Carlyle Holiday will get the nod at QB and the ground game will get a boost from the return of four O-Linemen. The line will be anchored by star Center Jeff Faine who is on both the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy preseason watch lists.
Though the line will help the rushing game, the Irish face some challenges as starting tailback Julius Jones is sidelined this year due to academics. That leaves the burden to Soph. RB Ryan Grant. Grant had a solid spring and would have received an extended look this fall regardless of Jones's eligibility so the loss may not be as bad as it appears.
On the defensive side of the ball the Irish looked good last year (14th in the nation overall at 304.9ypg - also only 3.5ypc and 170ypg passing) and should remain solid in 2002. The defense returns seven starters including the entire secondary that ranked 10th in the nation last year against the pass.
The Irish should also benefit from an all-star special teams unit. Nicholas Setta is one of the best kickers in the nation and nailed 15/17 field goal attempts (8/8 from 40+ with a long of 47) last year. The Irish special teams also blocked 5 kicks last season and return man Vontez Duff averaged an amazing 29+ yards on kickoff returns.
Statistics and previous accomplishments are relevant, but I believe that this year will come down to a number of "intangibles." The Irish must regain the confidence that they had as one of the pre-eminent football schools in the nation. They must eliminate costly turnovers (23 last season) and Holiday needs to play his "A-Game" (67% completions & 115 rush ypg in a three game span). If he can avoid performances like Stanford (1 of 16 completions.) the Irish should see a marked improvement over the 19.5ppg they averaged last season. With confidence and a lighter schedule this year, the Irish should return to bowl eligibility. My preseason call is 8-4 this season with losses against Michigan, at MSU, at FSU, and at USC.
2. South Florida
For a program only in existence since 1996, the South Florida Bulls have come a long way. After an impressive 8-3 campaign last season (including a big road win over Pitt) the Bulls should be even stronger this year as they return the bulk of their starters and 56 total lettermen.
The QB position belongs to Marquel Blackwell who over the last two years has amassed 4900 yards passing and nearly 1100 yards rushing. He has also tossed 34 TDs to 15picks. Primary targets are Elgin Hicks, Huey Whittaker (52 rec ly) and DeAndrew Rubin (34 rec ly). Hicks and Rubin both had problems last year (academics and a toe injury respectively) that caused them to be less than 100%. This season the trio of receivers should flourish with the problems behind them.
Defensively the Bulls were fairly impressive last year. DE Chris Daley had 8.5 sacks within the first five games before being slowed by an ankle injury. The Bulls held opposing ball carriers to only 2.9ypc but do need to shore up the 235ypg passing and 17-11 ratio allowed last season.
Overall I look for the Bulls to have another productive (and winning) season. I don?t think they improve on the 8-3 record as they face Oklahoma, Arkansas, and ECU all away, but they will definitely have another great season under their belt when they enter C-USA next year. (On an aside, note that the Bulls were one of the best teams in the nation last year against the spread (9-2). They may well be underestimated again this year so keep an eye on them for some great money making opportunities.)
3. Troy State
One of the most surprising teams in the NCAA last year, the Troy State Trojans look to continue their winning ways this year. Last year the Trojans played even the big teams tough. They lead Nebraska 7-0 at one point and were tied with Miami 7-7 after one quarter of play. The Trojans also stomped Mississippi State in a downpour.
The offense will suffer some this year as the Trojans lose 4-year starting QB Brock Nutter and star RB Demontray Carter. The two combined for 78% of the team?s total offense. Minimizing the loss is the fact that the full of the OL returns and should provide ample protection for Junior JUCO QB Matt Rey (or Soph. Hansell Bearden) and the RB-trio of Black, Betterson, and Richardson. The Trojans should also see solid production out of a talented receiver corps.
Three of last year?s top four tacklers return to the Trojans as well as eight starters from last year?s unit. There are a few questions at LB but a solid secondary and line should compensate for any minor weaknesses. (Key at LB will be based upon the return of Senior LB Naazir Yamini following off season shoulder surgery.)
4. Utah State
For a team that held leads in 10 of 11 contests last year, a mediocre 4-7 record was not what Head Coach Mick Dennehy had in mind. If the team could learn to hold leads and convert opportunities (they lead BYU 34-21 in the 3rd and only trailed Oregon by 3 in the 4th), they could be dangerous.
While one can forgive an occasional ?choke? against a big name team like Oregon or an offensive power like BYU, it is hard to accept the Aggies inability to close the deal against lesser opponents. USU lead S. Florida 26-15 before giving up 3 defensive special teams TDs. They also blew an opportunity against Wyoming by missing a late extra point.
Failures on the team are not exclusive to the O and the Ds surrendering of 39ppg last year didn?t help matters (They did face 4 Top25 offenses so the numbers may be a bit skewed.) The ray of hope for the Aggies centers around the return of Senior QB Jose Fuentes and star Wide-out Kevin Curtis but the team must find a replacement for RB Emmitt White who has topped 2K all-purpose yards each of the last two seasons.
Negatives aside, the team should fare better this year just because it is unfathomable that they could have as many meltdowns as last. With last season under their belt, the experience should push the Aggies past the 4 win total and possibly to a winning season. This will be tough though as the schedule is loaded with some of the best teams from small conferences (Utah, Boise State, BYU, Middle Tenn), a national powerhouse (Nebraska), and a low-level power conference school (Iowa).
5. Navy
With a new Head Coach, Navy looks to turn around a program that has been abysmal since the mid-nineties. Paul Johnson had the goods in 1AA (Georgia Southern) and is considered by many an outstanding offensive coach, but to bring the Middies to the .500 level he has his work cut out for him.
He will implement the spread offense that he used successfully in his tenure as OC (95 & 96) to improve the 19ppg the Midshipmen averaged last season, but Navy has more glaring problems on the defensive side of the ball. They need to address the 4.8ypc surrendered as well as 34.4ppg.
Though after a winless season there is really nowhere to go but up, I don?t see any miracles in Johnson?s first year. I?d say a 4-5 win season would be incredibly impressive with a 3 win season more likely. I think the Middies will eventually turn it around under PJ, but it seems at least a year or two away at this point.
6. UConn
Well, what can you say about the Huskies? You can start by noting that they are 6-1 against the line when greater than a 20pt dog. You can also mention that they started their first season in 1A ball (2000) a respectable 3-4 before losing their QB and dropping the rest of the season. You can also note that the Huskies do well against the MAC compiling a 4-4 record straight up.
But all of the useless statistics aside, the Huskies have the opportunity to pull a rabbit from the hat this year. A quick look at the schedule shows signs of hope with 4 MAC teams (3 at home) as well as Florida Atlantic and Navy. If they can run the table there, and convert one of the other 5 games they?ll pull down an impressive 7 win season. Though we doubt it will happen stranger things have been accomplished in college football.
The Huskie D returns 10 starters and should show an improvement over last year. With a veteran team (only 8 seniors last year) and the increase to a full 85 scholarships, the Huskies should improve noticeably in all aspects of the game.
With Independent teams, comparisons are not nearly as easy. One cannot say the team is "middle-of-the pack" or might "challenge for the title" if things go their way. Instead as the reviewer, I must analyze each team individually. I must compare each team to its opponents and generically to teams nationwide in similar situations.
That said, I will now attempt to provide you with a thorough review of each of the 6 Independent teams playing 1A ball this year. Though it will lack many of the comparisons and critiques that can be found in a conference preview, I hope it will provide you with ample information on the teams included:
1. Notre Dame
After a rare losing season in 2001, the Irish look to rebound in 2002. The Irish should fare better than 5-6 this year but a great deal will be riding on how quickly the Irish can adopt new Coach Ty Willingham's "West-Coast" offense. (Coming out of the Spring Drills Willingham remarked that the offense was only 20% installed.)
With the transfer of Matt LoVecchio, Junior Carlyle Holiday will get the nod at QB and the ground game will get a boost from the return of four O-Linemen. The line will be anchored by star Center Jeff Faine who is on both the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy preseason watch lists.
Though the line will help the rushing game, the Irish face some challenges as starting tailback Julius Jones is sidelined this year due to academics. That leaves the burden to Soph. RB Ryan Grant. Grant had a solid spring and would have received an extended look this fall regardless of Jones's eligibility so the loss may not be as bad as it appears.
On the defensive side of the ball the Irish looked good last year (14th in the nation overall at 304.9ypg - also only 3.5ypc and 170ypg passing) and should remain solid in 2002. The defense returns seven starters including the entire secondary that ranked 10th in the nation last year against the pass.
The Irish should also benefit from an all-star special teams unit. Nicholas Setta is one of the best kickers in the nation and nailed 15/17 field goal attempts (8/8 from 40+ with a long of 47) last year. The Irish special teams also blocked 5 kicks last season and return man Vontez Duff averaged an amazing 29+ yards on kickoff returns.
Statistics and previous accomplishments are relevant, but I believe that this year will come down to a number of "intangibles." The Irish must regain the confidence that they had as one of the pre-eminent football schools in the nation. They must eliminate costly turnovers (23 last season) and Holiday needs to play his "A-Game" (67% completions & 115 rush ypg in a three game span). If he can avoid performances like Stanford (1 of 16 completions.) the Irish should see a marked improvement over the 19.5ppg they averaged last season. With confidence and a lighter schedule this year, the Irish should return to bowl eligibility. My preseason call is 8-4 this season with losses against Michigan, at MSU, at FSU, and at USC.
2. South Florida
For a program only in existence since 1996, the South Florida Bulls have come a long way. After an impressive 8-3 campaign last season (including a big road win over Pitt) the Bulls should be even stronger this year as they return the bulk of their starters and 56 total lettermen.
The QB position belongs to Marquel Blackwell who over the last two years has amassed 4900 yards passing and nearly 1100 yards rushing. He has also tossed 34 TDs to 15picks. Primary targets are Elgin Hicks, Huey Whittaker (52 rec ly) and DeAndrew Rubin (34 rec ly). Hicks and Rubin both had problems last year (academics and a toe injury respectively) that caused them to be less than 100%. This season the trio of receivers should flourish with the problems behind them.
Defensively the Bulls were fairly impressive last year. DE Chris Daley had 8.5 sacks within the first five games before being slowed by an ankle injury. The Bulls held opposing ball carriers to only 2.9ypc but do need to shore up the 235ypg passing and 17-11 ratio allowed last season.
Overall I look for the Bulls to have another productive (and winning) season. I don?t think they improve on the 8-3 record as they face Oklahoma, Arkansas, and ECU all away, but they will definitely have another great season under their belt when they enter C-USA next year. (On an aside, note that the Bulls were one of the best teams in the nation last year against the spread (9-2). They may well be underestimated again this year so keep an eye on them for some great money making opportunities.)
3. Troy State
One of the most surprising teams in the NCAA last year, the Troy State Trojans look to continue their winning ways this year. Last year the Trojans played even the big teams tough. They lead Nebraska 7-0 at one point and were tied with Miami 7-7 after one quarter of play. The Trojans also stomped Mississippi State in a downpour.
The offense will suffer some this year as the Trojans lose 4-year starting QB Brock Nutter and star RB Demontray Carter. The two combined for 78% of the team?s total offense. Minimizing the loss is the fact that the full of the OL returns and should provide ample protection for Junior JUCO QB Matt Rey (or Soph. Hansell Bearden) and the RB-trio of Black, Betterson, and Richardson. The Trojans should also see solid production out of a talented receiver corps.
Three of last year?s top four tacklers return to the Trojans as well as eight starters from last year?s unit. There are a few questions at LB but a solid secondary and line should compensate for any minor weaknesses. (Key at LB will be based upon the return of Senior LB Naazir Yamini following off season shoulder surgery.)
4. Utah State
For a team that held leads in 10 of 11 contests last year, a mediocre 4-7 record was not what Head Coach Mick Dennehy had in mind. If the team could learn to hold leads and convert opportunities (they lead BYU 34-21 in the 3rd and only trailed Oregon by 3 in the 4th), they could be dangerous.
While one can forgive an occasional ?choke? against a big name team like Oregon or an offensive power like BYU, it is hard to accept the Aggies inability to close the deal against lesser opponents. USU lead S. Florida 26-15 before giving up 3 defensive special teams TDs. They also blew an opportunity against Wyoming by missing a late extra point.
Failures on the team are not exclusive to the O and the Ds surrendering of 39ppg last year didn?t help matters (They did face 4 Top25 offenses so the numbers may be a bit skewed.) The ray of hope for the Aggies centers around the return of Senior QB Jose Fuentes and star Wide-out Kevin Curtis but the team must find a replacement for RB Emmitt White who has topped 2K all-purpose yards each of the last two seasons.
Negatives aside, the team should fare better this year just because it is unfathomable that they could have as many meltdowns as last. With last season under their belt, the experience should push the Aggies past the 4 win total and possibly to a winning season. This will be tough though as the schedule is loaded with some of the best teams from small conferences (Utah, Boise State, BYU, Middle Tenn), a national powerhouse (Nebraska), and a low-level power conference school (Iowa).
5. Navy
With a new Head Coach, Navy looks to turn around a program that has been abysmal since the mid-nineties. Paul Johnson had the goods in 1AA (Georgia Southern) and is considered by many an outstanding offensive coach, but to bring the Middies to the .500 level he has his work cut out for him.
He will implement the spread offense that he used successfully in his tenure as OC (95 & 96) to improve the 19ppg the Midshipmen averaged last season, but Navy has more glaring problems on the defensive side of the ball. They need to address the 4.8ypc surrendered as well as 34.4ppg.
Though after a winless season there is really nowhere to go but up, I don?t see any miracles in Johnson?s first year. I?d say a 4-5 win season would be incredibly impressive with a 3 win season more likely. I think the Middies will eventually turn it around under PJ, but it seems at least a year or two away at this point.
6. UConn
Well, what can you say about the Huskies? You can start by noting that they are 6-1 against the line when greater than a 20pt dog. You can also mention that they started their first season in 1A ball (2000) a respectable 3-4 before losing their QB and dropping the rest of the season. You can also note that the Huskies do well against the MAC compiling a 4-4 record straight up.
But all of the useless statistics aside, the Huskies have the opportunity to pull a rabbit from the hat this year. A quick look at the schedule shows signs of hope with 4 MAC teams (3 at home) as well as Florida Atlantic and Navy. If they can run the table there, and convert one of the other 5 games they?ll pull down an impressive 7 win season. Though we doubt it will happen stranger things have been accomplished in college football.
The Huskie D returns 10 starters and should show an improvement over last year. With a veteran team (only 8 seniors last year) and the increase to a full 85 scholarships, the Huskies should improve noticeably in all aspects of the game.
