Indonesian Open

[Stanley]

Outright play (total stake per play: 1pt)

Arjun Atwal to win 50/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
New event, new course, new country and a very weak European Tour contingent ... rather a lottery this week, but one price stands out. Atwal found his form on the PGA Tour at the end of last season, including 6th in the Chrysler Classic of Greensboro, and has continued in similar vein this year with finishes of 16th and 26th in his two PGA Tour starts in 2005 and a top-20 finish in Qatar two weeks ago. So if we ignore his last two starts on this Tour, his last five finishes on the Asian PGA Tour read 10th, 1st, 6th, 3rd and 1st. Those finishes may have been in 2003, but it shows how much he has outgrown this Tour and is now a truly international player. Would have expected 33/1 at most this week.

 

[Stanley]

Further outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Thongchai Jaidee to win 12/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and GolfingGods
With Monty and McGinley of any real note from the European Tour contingent this week, this represents an excellent opportunity for Jaidee to win his third co-sanctioned event since the start of last season and both of those previous wins came in neighbouring Malaysia. He rested last week and so in the absence of any big-hitting European who could overpower this course, Asia's No.1 player should be Monty's biggest obstacle to getting into the Masters.

Wen-Chong Liang to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
For all that the commentators kept referring to Lian-Wei Zhang as China's No.1 golfer last week, he has ranked behind Liang in the World Rankings for some time. And as he currently lies 163 places below Liang, it will be the youngster who is set to remain as the China's top player for quite some time. He disappointed last week after being up with the leaders early in the event, but he had finished 5th and 8th in the last two co-sanctioned events and this is such a weak European field.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Atwal to place 8.25 top 5 @ Cbet

Had him incontention at Qatar only to spit the bit with final rd 75 and drop to 20th. Will look at him again.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

Arjun Atwal to beat Terry Pilkadaris -110 @ BlueSq
Lian-Wei Zhang to beat Wook-Soon Kang -111 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds

 

[Cantona7]

if i'm honest, i've got no idea this week. had a small dabble on :

Scott Strange at 100/1 last night with Sporting Odds
Lu Wen-Teh at 125/1 same firm.

maybe take Wiratchant at 33s if still available.

 

[lostinamerica]

A flat new venue near an airport with some notoriously grainy greens. A dodgy weather forecast of thunderstorms at the end of the rainy season. Golfing Paradise! I wish I could have caught a few helpful pictures before now.

I do O.K. with an approach that starts with ANGLES from viewing, reading and/or memory and research, that has me ALWAYS speculating on players that will possess and display the well-known traits that usually come so easy when good things happen - and that one player for whom it might just be their time. From a field of 150+ golfers with 150+ stories, trying to distill through clues on maybe 50 that trigger an instinct of some sort, sometimes seizing and other times just tapping players with full profiles or a single nugget (like a reaction to a holed putt the week before - seriously) that seem to be tracking according to my expectations, or according to some perceived bit of noteworthy substance, or going down some path I think I can recognize or analogize from the past. Unless I'm settling on one of the favorites, price is really one of the most modest of considerations. And unless I'm firing consistent blanks, I'm well aware of a tendency to take on a few more plays than are prudent, because when the dust settles at the end of the season, it's usually the ones that were left off the card that cause the real regrets . . . When "there's value in that line" is the impetus that strikes me to lay a wager, I do less O.K. in finding I was on to something with my plays . . . So, what strikes me here as the plays that if I'm not on board, that little man inside my head will be chewing me out and pounding me down for being such an IDIOT for lacking in self-belief:

OUTRIGHTS:

Jarrod Lyle(40/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Ivo Giner(100/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Nicolas Colsaerts(150/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Arjun Atwal(40/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Jarrod Moseley(90/1) e.w. @ 5dimes

GL

*******************************

Don't believe everything you think.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-2; -2.00pts

Atwal 19th
Jaidee 11th
Liang dns

Rather a disappointing outcome after Atwal was in the lead after the 1st round and Jaidee had been trimmed into a 2/1 favourite over the weekend.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-1-0; -0.10pts

Atwal/Pilkadaris LOST by 1
Zhang/Kang WON by 8

Yet more frustration with Atwal after his promising opening.

Asian PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 2-9; -6.50pts
Matchups: 5-8; -3.45pts