INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND
UNDER 51
Comments: I think this is the best play on the board of all the lines and totals next week. This total is a huge over-reaction to the Colts jaggernaut offense, which certainly strikes fear for UNDER bettors, but which is unproven in a hostile, cold weather, outdoor venue. Colts have put up big numbers all season, posting 14, 23, 41, 41, 35, 24, 31, and 24 in their respective road games. That's a 32 ppg average for all road games. However, most of these games have been played against teams with porous defenses -- DET, KC, HOU, TENN, etc. Give defensive guru Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for an opponent, and he is certain to throw a number of odd formations and stunt packages against Manning and Co. I also suspect that as good as the Colts offense is -- those numbers are also inflated by QB Manning's pursuit of the Marino TD passing record down the stretch. Situations where the Colts might have turned conservative in the fourth quarter were non-existent, as Manning often threw pass after pass with big leads, leading to some misleading scores. Unlike regular season games which are usually freewheeling, big championship games like this tend to be played a bit more fundamentally -- meaing more running plays, high-percentage passes, and time-consuming play-callilng. In ideal conditions in Week 1, these two teams played to a total of 51. However, the temperature for this game is expected to be at least 50 degress colder. I like to bet this early in the week, because we also get what I call the "freeroll" weather factor -- that is, if it turns windy or snowy later in the week, we get the added bonus of a high total in less than ideal conditions. January in Massachsetts is likely to be at least two of three -- 1. cold 2. windy 3. snowy. The 51 number presumes perfect playing conditions. Any sign of inclement weather will make this total plunge. Add the late start, and this means half the game will be played under the lights -- generally not as favorable to offenses that rely on timing patterns and precision. Also of note: RB E. James hasn't had a big game in over a month -- 11 for 63 yards last week, 1 carry in Week 16, 22 for 89 in Week 15, and 22 for 69 in Week 14. That could be a concern as Colts will need balance to break into the 30s. I think it's impossible to completely shut down this offense, but I do expect Pats defense will be somewhat successful containing the explosive offense.
Offensively, look for the Patriots to generate a lot of long-ball control drives which keeps the Colts offense on the sidelines. The last thing Belichick wants is a shootout. The Pats are much more comfortable in defensive-minded, low scoring games. RB C. DIllon will get at least 25 carries and will keep the clock moving.
Officiating is always a big concern for UNDER bettors, since flag-happy officials give away first downs at the slightest point of contact. However, playoff games tend to allow defensive backs more lattitude (excpetion was GB-MINN game last week). I think this somewhat nullifies the Patriots' concerns about injuries to DBs. Whether the defensive backfield is made up of starters or second-stringers, I believe Belichick is a good enough coach and the conditions will be challenging enough to make the Patriot injury situation a non-issue.
Then, there is the total of "51" -- a very high number for any New Engalnd game. Highest total on Patriot home game this year was 46 (Cincy) and both defense played lax in the OVER. You can expect a lot more intensity here. These two teams played a late season championship game last year, in a game that easily went UNDER. While the Colts are clearly a better team now, playing with more confidence, I don't see enough changes in coaching or personnel to suggest any major differences in outcome here. This should be a tough, close, contest between two very good teams, where both coaches will be satisfied with 4-yards gained per play (especially Belichick).
The high total necessitiates that BOTH teams have to come up with big offensive performances, and given the increased pressure of this game in a playoff atmosphere, outdoors, at least one offense should struggle at least part of the way.
"51" is also a nice high key number, as we get wins on possible outcomes: 28-21, 30-20, 33-17, 34-16, 35-14, 37-13, 38-10, etc. and a PUSH on possible outcomes: 27-24, 30-21, 31-20, 34-17, 35-16, 37-14, 38-13, 41-10, etc.
If you bet this UNDER, get on it now, as the total will almost certainly not go UP, but will go down -- especially if weather deteriorates.
-- Nolan Dalla
UNDER 51
Comments: I think this is the best play on the board of all the lines and totals next week. This total is a huge over-reaction to the Colts jaggernaut offense, which certainly strikes fear for UNDER bettors, but which is unproven in a hostile, cold weather, outdoor venue. Colts have put up big numbers all season, posting 14, 23, 41, 41, 35, 24, 31, and 24 in their respective road games. That's a 32 ppg average for all road games. However, most of these games have been played against teams with porous defenses -- DET, KC, HOU, TENN, etc. Give defensive guru Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for an opponent, and he is certain to throw a number of odd formations and stunt packages against Manning and Co. I also suspect that as good as the Colts offense is -- those numbers are also inflated by QB Manning's pursuit of the Marino TD passing record down the stretch. Situations where the Colts might have turned conservative in the fourth quarter were non-existent, as Manning often threw pass after pass with big leads, leading to some misleading scores. Unlike regular season games which are usually freewheeling, big championship games like this tend to be played a bit more fundamentally -- meaing more running plays, high-percentage passes, and time-consuming play-callilng. In ideal conditions in Week 1, these two teams played to a total of 51. However, the temperature for this game is expected to be at least 50 degress colder. I like to bet this early in the week, because we also get what I call the "freeroll" weather factor -- that is, if it turns windy or snowy later in the week, we get the added bonus of a high total in less than ideal conditions. January in Massachsetts is likely to be at least two of three -- 1. cold 2. windy 3. snowy. The 51 number presumes perfect playing conditions. Any sign of inclement weather will make this total plunge. Add the late start, and this means half the game will be played under the lights -- generally not as favorable to offenses that rely on timing patterns and precision. Also of note: RB E. James hasn't had a big game in over a month -- 11 for 63 yards last week, 1 carry in Week 16, 22 for 89 in Week 15, and 22 for 69 in Week 14. That could be a concern as Colts will need balance to break into the 30s. I think it's impossible to completely shut down this offense, but I do expect Pats defense will be somewhat successful containing the explosive offense.
Offensively, look for the Patriots to generate a lot of long-ball control drives which keeps the Colts offense on the sidelines. The last thing Belichick wants is a shootout. The Pats are much more comfortable in defensive-minded, low scoring games. RB C. DIllon will get at least 25 carries and will keep the clock moving.
Officiating is always a big concern for UNDER bettors, since flag-happy officials give away first downs at the slightest point of contact. However, playoff games tend to allow defensive backs more lattitude (excpetion was GB-MINN game last week). I think this somewhat nullifies the Patriots' concerns about injuries to DBs. Whether the defensive backfield is made up of starters or second-stringers, I believe Belichick is a good enough coach and the conditions will be challenging enough to make the Patriot injury situation a non-issue.
Then, there is the total of "51" -- a very high number for any New Engalnd game. Highest total on Patriot home game this year was 46 (Cincy) and both defense played lax in the OVER. You can expect a lot more intensity here. These two teams played a late season championship game last year, in a game that easily went UNDER. While the Colts are clearly a better team now, playing with more confidence, I don't see enough changes in coaching or personnel to suggest any major differences in outcome here. This should be a tough, close, contest between two very good teams, where both coaches will be satisfied with 4-yards gained per play (especially Belichick).
The high total necessitiates that BOTH teams have to come up with big offensive performances, and given the increased pressure of this game in a playoff atmosphere, outdoors, at least one offense should struggle at least part of the way.
"51" is also a nice high key number, as we get wins on possible outcomes: 28-21, 30-20, 33-17, 34-16, 35-14, 37-13, 38-10, etc. and a PUSH on possible outcomes: 27-24, 30-21, 31-20, 34-17, 35-16, 37-14, 38-13, 41-10, etc.
If you bet this UNDER, get on it now, as the total will almost certainly not go UP, but will go down -- especially if weather deteriorates.
-- Nolan Dalla
) and pray for your pick 
