Info

D

DR STRANGELOVE

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 13, 2003
27,355
51
0
Toronto, Canada
this is not my work, just some info i have found on the net, take it fwiw

good luck this weekend!

We've all heard or know how big momentum is in the game of football and how tough it is to get it back after it is lost whether that be through a loss or a break in action (bye). But check this out:


Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990 with the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference owning a first round bye there have been 23 times where a #1 or #2 seed has LOST their final regular season game (more often than not resting starters and tanking) and then had their bye. But unbelievably only 3 of those 23 #1 or #2 seeds that lost their final regular season game went on to win the Super Bowl!!!! 3 out of 23 in 19 years! I think that speaks volumes as to how big of a factor momentum is in this game and just how utterly STUPID it is to rest starters and tank your final regular season game if you have a bye after that, effectively killing any momentum.


The 3 winners?


1999 Rams

1994 49ers

1991 Redskins


It's interesting to note that it has not happened in 10 years and two of the wins came back in an age where power teams ruled and a wild card or lower seed making noise was almost an afterthought.


Look what has happened just since 2002 (when the NFL expanded to 8 division winners and only 4 wild cards got in):


Since 2002 there have been 12 #1 or #2 seeds that have lost their final regular season game. They are 0 for 12 in Super Bowl wins. Half of them (6) have gone down on their home field in their first game. 3 more have gone down on their home field in the conference finals, and of just the 3 teams to make it to the Super Bowl all 3 have gone down in the big game. Those 12 teams combined to go an ugly 7-14 ATS and suffered many SU losses as favorites.


I guess the message is here if the Colts, Chargers, Saints, or Vikings/Eagles (this year's potential #1 and #2 seeds) decide to tank Week 17 then it is just about the equivalent to suicide as far as their Super Bowl hopes go. I'm not saying they won't win the big game if they lose in Week 17 but holy shit, history certainly says their chances are slim at best!
 
D

DR STRANGELOVE

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 13, 2003
27,355
51
0
Toronto, Canada
New Orleans -9.5 (-120) @ Seattle: Well I wasnt able to grab this line early enough, and the 'sharps' hammered it up to 10, so I was forced to drop some extra juice on it to get it down to 9.5 but I feel GREAT about it! Im genuinely surprised to see so many people on Seattle... I, like many, traditionally 'loved' Seattle @ Home (going into 2010) bc of their "12th man" but I had the pleasure (or displeasure!) of watching this Seattle Team @ Home and realized their "12th man" means absolutely NOTHING this season!! This is just a BAD football team!! Everyone thinks theyre being 'sharp' by betting this traditionally "good home team" bc the Saints lost a couple games out West thisyr, and bc their hasnt been a Super Bowl Winner to Win a Playoff game since 2005, and bc Chris Ivory/Pierre Thomas are on the IR, and bc Drew Brees is 0-4 on the Road in the Playoffs... Guys, this doesnt make you sharp! This is what EVERYONE is seeing, this is EXACTLY what they want you to see!! This is EXACTLY how Vegas has somehow gotten 40+% of the Public to Bet on the WORST Playoff Team EVER!! If youre betting this Seattle team, I'll gaurantee 1 of 2 things, either A, youre a Fan of Seattle (or N.O. Hater) or B, the ONLY Seattle game youve watched in the 2nd half of the year was Wk 17 @ Home Vs St Louis... Because if youre like me, and watched some of Seattles games in the 2nd half of the season, theyre SICKENING to watch!! Their Defense is ATROCIOUS and their Offense isnt much better!! Now dont get me wrong, I dont believe this Saints team is going to "repeat", infact, I dont even think theyll get to the Super Bowl, but theyre 3 Classes above this Seattle team and Homefield advantage wont matter once Seattle falls behind by 3+ Scores... If you "like" or "love" Seattle in this spot, I dont wanna talk you out of your pick but before you Wager your hard-earned money on the WORST Playoff Team of ALL TIME, Please just realize this... This is NOT 2 Playoff-Caliber Teams Playing this Saturday.... It is 1 Good Playoff Team Vs 1 BAD 7-9 Football team.... Now that weve cleared that up... Re-Cap this Game!! .... Goodluck!!! (Laying 4-Units)



As for the other Saturday Game, Im still VERY Torn on this Game... the Jets have the "Revenge Factor" and boast a fresh Shonn Greene who "could" run all over the Colts, but Sanchez is hurt and hasnt looked good lately, the Jets D doesnt get enough pressure on the QB to force Peyton into mistakes. Plus the Colts Run-D has held their Last 3 RBs faced (MJD, RunDMC, and CJ2K) to VERY Pedestrian #s... So thats ALL worth keeping in mind... Im "Leaning" Towards the Colts, but Im still torn and will post my play before Sat.
 
D

DR STRANGELOVE

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 13, 2003
27,355
51
0
Toronto, Canada
NY Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Ov44.5: Well this spread definitely has me torn so I took the high road and Bet the total! I see both teams being able to score, as the Colts possess enough weapons to beat the Jets man to man coverage. The problem with the Jets Pass D is that they dont get enough pressure on the QB and Good/Great QBs like Peyton will pick them apart if given enough time... But the Jets also have a "fresh" Shonn Greene, whom theyll unleash on the Colts weak Rush D. Even though the Colts Rush D has been solid over their last 3, the Jets 'should' be able to move the ball and Sanchez 'should' put together an efficient game with the Running Game setting up the Play Action Pass... I expect Mark to finish with a conservative, yet solid line, something like 250 yds n 2 tds. The Colts Defense has allowed 'atleast' 20 Points in EVERY Game since Week 10... Not a big trend guy but the Over tends to hit A LOT when these 2 Teams matchup... Im looking for this game to be in that 31-28 or 27-21 type of range. Goodluck! (Laying 2-Units)
 
D

DR STRANGELOVE

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 13, 2003
27,355
51
0
Toronto, Canada
NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE: New Orleans is extremely expensive at -10? on the road. You just don't see lines like that in the playoffs. Home teams may lay that much. But, ROAD teams? Sharps prefer big dogs in big games (and there have been decades where that killed them in playoffs and Super Bowls way back in the day). They don't want to step in with Seattle until they know what's going on at quarterback, and what the weather is going to be like. I do expect game day money to come in from sharps on Seattle. This is a team they LOVED earlier in the season at the right prices. The public will probably be on New Orleans because they love betting the Saints as favorites. Sharps are hoping they'll see +11 on game day on the team side. The total her dropped from 45 to 44 on news of the Saints injury situation at running back.


NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: Clear support for the Jets here, which isn't a surprise because many sharps have been calling Indianapolis a fraud for years. They kept saying that right up through the Super Bowl last year...and could finally say "See, we told you so" after losing until then. The opener here of Indianapolis -3 has dropped to -2?. It takes a lot of money to move off the field goal...and a lot of support for a dog to KEEP a line at 2.5 once it's moved. We're not seeing a flood of interest on the home team at less than a field goal, though the public will probably step in on the Colts on game day because they love getting Peyton Manning cheap. It's funny, I'm hearing some comprehensive analysis on what the Jets are such a great play here from many different spots. It's the EXACT SAME THING these same guys were saying a year ago before the Colts controlled the Jets fairly easily on the same field. It's true that the Colts have more injuries this year than last. Has the line properly adjusted for that?


BALTIMORE AT KANSAS CITY: The earliest numbers here were Baltimore -1 or -1?. Sharps hit THOSE stores hard at first...so that most places opened the line at Baltimore -3. It's stayed there every since. Sometimes the early bird gets smacked by the worms. We'll see Sunday whether or not Kansas City deserves more respect than they're getting in the number. They had a great season, but did look very shaky last week vs. Oakland in a game that everyone watched out here in the sportsbooks. Oakland is like a local team in Vegas in terms of fan support. Also note that Baltimore has won on the road in Wildcard weekend each of the last two years in convincing fashion. That has many thinking -3 is a small price to play to get them. We might see some dog money come in at KC +3?. As of now, I'm just not hearing many people endorsing the Chiefs. The total has dropped from 42 to 41 or 40?. We may see a further drop if weather is going to help the defenses.


GREEN BAY AT PHILADELPHIA: The line here is hopping between Philly -2? and Philly -3. Wherever it sits money comes in on the other side. Eagles backers LOVE that they could get their team at less than a field goal. Packer backers LOVE that they can get a full field goal in a game they expect to win straight up. This is going to be the heaviest bet game of the weekend because it's a great matchup in the grand finale. And, we have very strong competing interests. Sportsbooks will pray it doesn't land on three because then they'll have to pay out the Eagles -2? money while refunding the Green Bay +3 money. Disaster! Many stores are using three with an extra moneyline to avoid that possibility. Nothing yet is happening on the total. This is definitely a site where you want to know the weather before betting an Over/Under.
 
D

DR STRANGELOVE

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 13, 2003
27,355
51
0
Toronto, Canada
Baltimore -2.5

If anyone has read my thoughts on the Ravens this year you know where I stand on them. I think they are a big fat phony. Their defense is showing its age late in game as they have blown numerous leads this season. Their running game has taken a big step backwards. Joe Flacco is an average QB, nothing spectacular. And last but not least their play calling and coaching is downright laughable.

So why I am I laying road wood with them? It's simple, I trust the Chiefs much less. You've heard it all already this week and will hear it many more times the rest of the week: The Chiefs are not tested and played a very soft schedule. Usually that is motivation but I think the gap is too wide here. Matt Cassel had a really nice year but against a defense of this caliber I am not sold on him making plays. The Chiefs have one receiver. Take him out and it will be very tough for Kansas City to make plays in the passing game. It's not a given either but the Ravens should at least somewhat contain the Ravens running game. At some point Matt Cassel is going to have to make plays and I do not think he will succeed in doing that.

The Ravens on the other hand are tested, they are experienced. They've been in wars. They've gone on the road in the playoffs and gotten it done. Kansas City has not done those things. They don't have the battle tested roster that the Ravens do. I don't think they have the physical or mental toughness to hang with a team like Baltimore. I realize Kansas City won 7 of 8 home games this year but I don't see a great homefield edge here either. The Ravens know what it takes to win on the road. They were 5-3 on the road this year. They have won 16 road games the last 3 seasons including 3 playoff road wins with basically the exact same team that they bring to Kansas City on Sunday so I don't see them going on the road and getting rattled no matter how loud the crowd at Arrowhead is.

I'm not totally convinced all is well in the Kansas City coaching ranks either. There are rumors that Weis and Haley do not get along and with Weis bolting this week for Florida I think there will be obvious tension which is not a good thing. I'm not sure I trust Haley as a coach either. This guy is prone to blowups and if things are not working out early I could see another meltdown.

This game is so similar to Baltimore's 2008 wildcard game that it is scary. That year the Ravens went on the road to play the Miami Dolphins who finished 11-5 and won their division after finishing last the year before. They won by running the ball and not turning it over with Chad Pennington having a very efficient year finishing 2nd in the NFL in QB rating while throwing just 7 interceptions all season. Sound familiar? The Dolphins also played a very soft schedule that year (I believe it was 26th or 28th). What happened in the playoff game? The Ravens bottled up the run game and held Miami's duo of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to just 52 yards on 21 carries. They made Pennington beat them which he could not do as he was exposed badly throwing 4 picks and he was sacked 3 times in an easy 27-9 Ravens win as 3 point road favs. Just sayin.
 
V

Vicious

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 31, 2008
519
32
28
Doc -
The first piece about momentum was written before last years playoffs for sure.
New Orleans dropped their last 3 reg season games. Still maintained the #1 seed at 13-3, and went on to win the Super Bowl. So, the anomaly may have taken place just last year. Still good to know. Thanks for posting it.
 
D

DR STRANGELOVE

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 13, 2003
27,355
51
0
Toronto, Canada
ron,

i don't love any of the games, nothing stands out.

slight lean to balt -3, other than that, going to enjoy watching the games on the new large screen and home theater setup that just arrived, 5 hours to install :facepalm:
 
K

krc

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
1,879
31
0
Texas
DR STRANGELOVE said:
ron,

i don't love any of the games, nothing stands out.

slight lean to balt -3, other than that, going to enjoy watching the games on the new large screen and home theater setup that just arrived, 5 hours to install :facepalm:
Click to expand...

Nice way to watch the games

good look Dr


krc
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top