Welcome back to Inside the Lines, your in-depth and inside look at sports, coming from Wagerweb.com's CEO Dave Johnson. Every week we will take a look at the biggest college and pro games slated for the upcoming weekend, including Wagerweb.com's GAME OF THE WEEK. We will look at the match-ups, trends and where the money is moving for each game. If there is a game that you would like to have previewed in the future, please email Dave Johnson at dave@wagerweb.com. ENJOY!!!!!
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
SUNDAY GAMES
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
3:00 PM ET FOX
Opening Line: Eagles -4.5 over/under 42
Current Line: Eagles -4.5 over/under 40.5
Preview:
Boy, did the Falcons look good against the Rams. Remember, though, that the Rams are not very good, but it IS the playoffs, and Atlanta dominated from the get-go. The Falcons are probably the only team in the league whose QB can consistently run for more yards than he passes and can win the most ballgames by doing so. Mike Vick is definitely the man and will have to continue to be if the Falcons have a chance in Philly.
The Eagles have a heck of a QB of their own in Donovan McNabb, who was Mike Vick before Vick came into the league. The Eagles defense will be the major factor in this one. The Eagles looked good after the long layoff, but could have looked a lot better, and we will see that this week once again as a dome team goes on the road in cold weather. The percentages are just not good. Look for Eagles WR Freddie 'The People's Champ' Mitchell to step up again, and for RB Brian Westbrook, the unsung hero of this team, to have another huge day.
Serious Injuries:
Eagles
WR Terrell Owens will not play.
Falcons
Weather: (Early Forecast on Tuesday)
Lincoln Financial Field. 50% chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the upper teens.
Action:
Eagles are being played early at a 2-to-1 ratio. The game is still sitting on the opening number of -4.5, but could rise if the Eagles money continues to pour in through the week.
The over/under on the game seems to be attracting some of the early money as well. The total on the game dropped from 42 to 40.5, which is in stark contrast to the way the money is being played. We have actually taken in twice as much money on the 'over' in the game although the line continues to drop.
The key to the movement on the total of this game will be the weather. Early forecast is calling for a 50% chance of snow showers. Players beware. Inclement weather later in the week will surely have the Wiseguys playing 'under.' Weather can also act as a neutralizer. As we witnessed with Peyton Manning this past week, snow, rain and wind can take away a team's ability to throw the ball, and they become more dependent on the run. The team who controls the line of scrimmage and runs the ball better usually ends up on the winning side.
Match-up to Watch:
Donavon McNabb Passing Yards vs. 13th-ranked Falcons Pass Defense
Last Week: McNabb 21-33 for 286 yards (2 TDs - 0 INTs)
Wagerweb.com Player Prop Line: over/under 217
Michael Vick Rushing Yards vs. 6th-ranked Eagles Rush Defense
Last Week: Vick rushed for Playoff record 119 yards
Wagerweb.com Player Prop Line: over/under 60
Prediction: (Head-to-Head Prediction, not ATS)
(Eagles to Win) The Falcons' chances to win this game will rest on their ability to run the ball. The trio of Vick, Duckett and Dunn, who are perhaps the best combined rushing attack in the league, will look to attack the Eagles on the ground. The trio rushed for 327 yards vs. the Rams last week, with Vick rushing for 119 himself when he was flushed from the pocket.
Don't expect the Falcons to have the same success against the 6th-ranked Eagles Rushing Defense that they had against the porous 15th-ranked Rams Rushing Defense. The Eagles only gave up 118.9 yards per game against the run compared to the Rams, who gave up an average of 136.2 this past season.
Jimmy Johnson, defensive coordinator of the Eagles, knows how to put the breaks on a rushing QB attack. In 2002, the Eagles' aggressive Defense held Vick to 30 yards on six carries. Since that game, the Eagles' Defense has held all opposing Quarterbacks to 288 total yards on 90 carries (less than 3.2 yards per carry). Johnson is smart enough to know that blitzing Vick every down will only lead to big gain plays when the slippery Vick gets through the front seven. Look for Johnson to keep Vick off balance and confuse him with camouflaged blitzing and pass coverage schemes.
The Eagles will be successful in keeping Vick in the pocket, forcing him to throw the ball downfield. Pro Bowl Safeties Dawkins and Lewis will have big games converting Vick Pass Attempts into INTs.
McNabb used seven different receivers last week in the victory against the Vikings. Expect him to do much of the same this week with considerable focus on the versatile Brian Westbrook. Westbrook will be lined up as a slot receiver, and McNabb will go across the middle to him often in order to capitalize on a weak 13th-ranked Falcons Pass Defense.
The Eagles long wait is over, and they win their first Conference Championship in front of the hometown fans at 'The Linc' (aka Lincoln Financial Field). They move on to their first Superbowl since 1980.
ATS Statistics: (Against the Spread)
Eagles Home 5-3
Falcons Road 4-4
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
SUNDAY GAMES
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
3:00 PM ET FOX
Opening Line: Eagles -4.5 over/under 42
Current Line: Eagles -4.5 over/under 40.5
Preview:
Boy, did the Falcons look good against the Rams. Remember, though, that the Rams are not very good, but it IS the playoffs, and Atlanta dominated from the get-go. The Falcons are probably the only team in the league whose QB can consistently run for more yards than he passes and can win the most ballgames by doing so. Mike Vick is definitely the man and will have to continue to be if the Falcons have a chance in Philly.
The Eagles have a heck of a QB of their own in Donovan McNabb, who was Mike Vick before Vick came into the league. The Eagles defense will be the major factor in this one. The Eagles looked good after the long layoff, but could have looked a lot better, and we will see that this week once again as a dome team goes on the road in cold weather. The percentages are just not good. Look for Eagles WR Freddie 'The People's Champ' Mitchell to step up again, and for RB Brian Westbrook, the unsung hero of this team, to have another huge day.
Serious Injuries:
Eagles
WR Terrell Owens will not play.
Falcons
Weather: (Early Forecast on Tuesday)
Lincoln Financial Field. 50% chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the upper teens.
Action:
Eagles are being played early at a 2-to-1 ratio. The game is still sitting on the opening number of -4.5, but could rise if the Eagles money continues to pour in through the week.
The over/under on the game seems to be attracting some of the early money as well. The total on the game dropped from 42 to 40.5, which is in stark contrast to the way the money is being played. We have actually taken in twice as much money on the 'over' in the game although the line continues to drop.
The key to the movement on the total of this game will be the weather. Early forecast is calling for a 50% chance of snow showers. Players beware. Inclement weather later in the week will surely have the Wiseguys playing 'under.' Weather can also act as a neutralizer. As we witnessed with Peyton Manning this past week, snow, rain and wind can take away a team's ability to throw the ball, and they become more dependent on the run. The team who controls the line of scrimmage and runs the ball better usually ends up on the winning side.
Match-up to Watch:
Donavon McNabb Passing Yards vs. 13th-ranked Falcons Pass Defense
Last Week: McNabb 21-33 for 286 yards (2 TDs - 0 INTs)
Wagerweb.com Player Prop Line: over/under 217
Michael Vick Rushing Yards vs. 6th-ranked Eagles Rush Defense
Last Week: Vick rushed for Playoff record 119 yards
Wagerweb.com Player Prop Line: over/under 60
Prediction: (Head-to-Head Prediction, not ATS)
(Eagles to Win) The Falcons' chances to win this game will rest on their ability to run the ball. The trio of Vick, Duckett and Dunn, who are perhaps the best combined rushing attack in the league, will look to attack the Eagles on the ground. The trio rushed for 327 yards vs. the Rams last week, with Vick rushing for 119 himself when he was flushed from the pocket.
Don't expect the Falcons to have the same success against the 6th-ranked Eagles Rushing Defense that they had against the porous 15th-ranked Rams Rushing Defense. The Eagles only gave up 118.9 yards per game against the run compared to the Rams, who gave up an average of 136.2 this past season.
Jimmy Johnson, defensive coordinator of the Eagles, knows how to put the breaks on a rushing QB attack. In 2002, the Eagles' aggressive Defense held Vick to 30 yards on six carries. Since that game, the Eagles' Defense has held all opposing Quarterbacks to 288 total yards on 90 carries (less than 3.2 yards per carry). Johnson is smart enough to know that blitzing Vick every down will only lead to big gain plays when the slippery Vick gets through the front seven. Look for Johnson to keep Vick off balance and confuse him with camouflaged blitzing and pass coverage schemes.
The Eagles will be successful in keeping Vick in the pocket, forcing him to throw the ball downfield. Pro Bowl Safeties Dawkins and Lewis will have big games converting Vick Pass Attempts into INTs.
McNabb used seven different receivers last week in the victory against the Vikings. Expect him to do much of the same this week with considerable focus on the versatile Brian Westbrook. Westbrook will be lined up as a slot receiver, and McNabb will go across the middle to him often in order to capitalize on a weak 13th-ranked Falcons Pass Defense.
The Eagles long wait is over, and they win their first Conference Championship in front of the hometown fans at 'The Linc' (aka Lincoln Financial Field). They move on to their first Superbowl since 1980.
ATS Statistics: (Against the Spread)
Eagles Home 5-3
Falcons Road 4-4
