There's always a concern about placing too much emphasis on past pointspread results. That's especially true when referring to rather a limited measurement of examples, such as NFL playoff action. A maximum of four such games in any playoff round from past seasons hardly adds up to a truly significant statistical sampling of games.
It might be just as risky, however, to overlook recent history, especially when hard-to-ignore patterns have emerged. And, generally speaking, past NFL playoff results, especially in the upcoming conference semifinal phase, reveal some definite trends.
Before inspecting the numbers further, keep in mind that the NFL playoffs were fundamentally altered in 1990, when the postseason tournament was expanded from 10 to 12 teams. Since then, all conference semifinal home teams have had a "bye" entering that round of action. Those "bye" teams annually represent the cream of the NFL crop, having proven their quality with a full season's worth of results that were rewarded with an extra week of rest, and the corresponding home field, in conference semifinal play. Almost all of the NFL "powerhouse teams" in recent memory -- including multiple Super Bowl winners such as Dallas, San Francisco and Denver's second title winner in '98 -- are included in that grouping.
Favorites and home teams (usually one and the same in this round), almost always benefiting from that "bye," have usually provided pretty good value in conference semifinal action. Home teams, all of them favored, stand a solid 8-4 against-the-spread the past three campaigns. "Intermediate"-priced favorites (laying between 3 1/2-9 1/2 points) have long provided good value, covering 61 percent of their chances the past 25 postseasons.
Note, too, that there has been only one home underdog in conference semifinal action since 1982 (that being Carolina when hosting Dallas in 1996; the 3-point 'dog Panthers won outright, 26-17).
Further, much like other playoff rounds in recent seasons, conference semifinal tilts have tended to become one-sided affairs. All four of last year's battles in Week 2 of the playoffs were decided by-double-digit margins; three of the four by 14 points or more. Since 1976, nearly half of the games (47 of 100) have been decided by 14 points or more. And since 1994, 19 of the 28 battles in this round have been decided by double-digit margins.
As always, however, a "balanced" handicapping approach, incorporating fundamental and psychological aspects as well as technical considerations, is best advised. Ignoring any of those angles at the expense of others comes with its own set of risks. Proceed advisedly.
Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL conference semifinal games since 1976. A "margin of victory" chart for these games since 1976 is included as well.
Category result
Favorites ATS: 54-43-2 (1 pick)
Favorites SU: 71-28
Favored by 0-3 points: 5-9
Favored by 3 1/2-6 1/2 points: 19-13-1
Favored by 7-9 1/2 points: 20-12
Favored by 10-13 1/2 points: 7-6
Favored by 14 points or more: 3-3-1
Home teams ATS: 56-42-2
Home teams SU: 73-27
Home favorites ATS: 52-41-2
Home underdogs ATS: 3-2
Home picks ATS: 1-0
Over/under (since 1986): 33-27
Margins of victory
1-3 points: 21
4-6 points: 8
7-10 points: 19
11-13 points: 5
14 points or more: 47
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LAS VEGAS - There are those who believe the Philadelphia Eagles are better than the Chicago Bears, and the Oakland Raiders are more talented than the New England Patriots.
But how do you make two rested home teams and underdog in the second round of the playoffs? You can't.
So, oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Chicago minus one, and the Patriots minus three.
"I'm not so sure Oakland isn't the better team talent-wise," said LVSC odds manager Cesar Robaina. "But the team they beat, the Jets, had to travel cross-country twice.
"Now they (the Raiders) have to travel cross-country. They're a West Coast team and they're going into cold weather."
Enough early money has arrived on Oakland that the Patriots are either minus three or 2 ?. If the weather turns out to be OK, more people could bet the Raiders. The total opened 40 and is currently at 41 ?.
"This could be one of the few favorites we might need this weekend," Robaina said of New England.
LVSC's opening line recommendation on Philadelphia-Chicago was Bears minus one. The line currently is Chicago minus 2 ? or three. Robaina said the linemakers had a disagreement on this matchup, with some wanting to open the Bears as high as minus four. The 'over/under' is 32 ?.
"Talent-wise I believe the Eagles are the better team," Robaina said. "I'm not so sure they (bettors) won't come on Philadelphia later in the week."
The Baltimore-Pittsburgh line proved tricky. LVSC decided to open the Steelers minus five, with the total set at 32. The line currently is Pittsburgh minus 5 ?, with the total down to 31 ?.
"I don't know if I buy the theory that the Ravens are back," Robaina said. "The Dolphins were just an out-manned team, and beating Minnesota on Monday night was like beating a team with a high school quarterback."
Robaina said that one oddsmaker wanted to open Pittsburgh minus six. The teams split their two games, although Pittsburgh had a huge statistical edge.
Steelers kicker Kris Brown missed four field goals when the Ravens recorded a 13-10 win. The Steelers out-gained the Ravens in that game, 348-183. Pittsburgh also out-gained the Ravens a month ago, 476-207, en route to a 26-21 victory.
"Pittsburgh had a big stat advantage in both games," Robaina said, "and yet lost by three points and won by less than six."
So LVSC was reluctant to open the game minus six. The oddsmakers had no such reluctance making St. Louis an opening nine-point favorite against Green Bay. The line has since gone to 10, with the total up from 54 to 55.
"(Brett) Favre could catch fire, but the Rams defense has been very good this year," Robaina said. "Their defensive backfield has really been upgraded."
The Packers are also just 5-12 against the spread their last 17 on artificial turf. Robaina said he wouldn't be surprised if the line climbed to minus 11.
"We're definitely going to need a couple of 'dogs," he said.
Credit: Vegas Insider
It might be just as risky, however, to overlook recent history, especially when hard-to-ignore patterns have emerged. And, generally speaking, past NFL playoff results, especially in the upcoming conference semifinal phase, reveal some definite trends.
Before inspecting the numbers further, keep in mind that the NFL playoffs were fundamentally altered in 1990, when the postseason tournament was expanded from 10 to 12 teams. Since then, all conference semifinal home teams have had a "bye" entering that round of action. Those "bye" teams annually represent the cream of the NFL crop, having proven their quality with a full season's worth of results that were rewarded with an extra week of rest, and the corresponding home field, in conference semifinal play. Almost all of the NFL "powerhouse teams" in recent memory -- including multiple Super Bowl winners such as Dallas, San Francisco and Denver's second title winner in '98 -- are included in that grouping.
Favorites and home teams (usually one and the same in this round), almost always benefiting from that "bye," have usually provided pretty good value in conference semifinal action. Home teams, all of them favored, stand a solid 8-4 against-the-spread the past three campaigns. "Intermediate"-priced favorites (laying between 3 1/2-9 1/2 points) have long provided good value, covering 61 percent of their chances the past 25 postseasons.
Note, too, that there has been only one home underdog in conference semifinal action since 1982 (that being Carolina when hosting Dallas in 1996; the 3-point 'dog Panthers won outright, 26-17).
Further, much like other playoff rounds in recent seasons, conference semifinal tilts have tended to become one-sided affairs. All four of last year's battles in Week 2 of the playoffs were decided by-double-digit margins; three of the four by 14 points or more. Since 1976, nearly half of the games (47 of 100) have been decided by 14 points or more. And since 1994, 19 of the 28 battles in this round have been decided by double-digit margins.
As always, however, a "balanced" handicapping approach, incorporating fundamental and psychological aspects as well as technical considerations, is best advised. Ignoring any of those angles at the expense of others comes with its own set of risks. Proceed advisedly.
Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL conference semifinal games since 1976. A "margin of victory" chart for these games since 1976 is included as well.
Category result
Favorites ATS: 54-43-2 (1 pick)
Favorites SU: 71-28
Favored by 0-3 points: 5-9
Favored by 3 1/2-6 1/2 points: 19-13-1
Favored by 7-9 1/2 points: 20-12
Favored by 10-13 1/2 points: 7-6
Favored by 14 points or more: 3-3-1
Home teams ATS: 56-42-2
Home teams SU: 73-27
Home favorites ATS: 52-41-2
Home underdogs ATS: 3-2
Home picks ATS: 1-0
Over/under (since 1986): 33-27
Margins of victory
1-3 points: 21
4-6 points: 8
7-10 points: 19
11-13 points: 5
14 points or more: 47
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LAS VEGAS - There are those who believe the Philadelphia Eagles are better than the Chicago Bears, and the Oakland Raiders are more talented than the New England Patriots.
But how do you make two rested home teams and underdog in the second round of the playoffs? You can't.
So, oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Chicago minus one, and the Patriots minus three.
"I'm not so sure Oakland isn't the better team talent-wise," said LVSC odds manager Cesar Robaina. "But the team they beat, the Jets, had to travel cross-country twice.
"Now they (the Raiders) have to travel cross-country. They're a West Coast team and they're going into cold weather."
Enough early money has arrived on Oakland that the Patriots are either minus three or 2 ?. If the weather turns out to be OK, more people could bet the Raiders. The total opened 40 and is currently at 41 ?.
"This could be one of the few favorites we might need this weekend," Robaina said of New England.
LVSC's opening line recommendation on Philadelphia-Chicago was Bears minus one. The line currently is Chicago minus 2 ? or three. Robaina said the linemakers had a disagreement on this matchup, with some wanting to open the Bears as high as minus four. The 'over/under' is 32 ?.
"Talent-wise I believe the Eagles are the better team," Robaina said. "I'm not so sure they (bettors) won't come on Philadelphia later in the week."
The Baltimore-Pittsburgh line proved tricky. LVSC decided to open the Steelers minus five, with the total set at 32. The line currently is Pittsburgh minus 5 ?, with the total down to 31 ?.
"I don't know if I buy the theory that the Ravens are back," Robaina said. "The Dolphins were just an out-manned team, and beating Minnesota on Monday night was like beating a team with a high school quarterback."
Robaina said that one oddsmaker wanted to open Pittsburgh minus six. The teams split their two games, although Pittsburgh had a huge statistical edge.
Steelers kicker Kris Brown missed four field goals when the Ravens recorded a 13-10 win. The Steelers out-gained the Ravens in that game, 348-183. Pittsburgh also out-gained the Ravens a month ago, 476-207, en route to a 26-21 victory.
"Pittsburgh had a big stat advantage in both games," Robaina said, "and yet lost by three points and won by less than six."
So LVSC was reluctant to open the game minus six. The oddsmakers had no such reluctance making St. Louis an opening nine-point favorite against Green Bay. The line has since gone to 10, with the total up from 54 to 55.
"(Brett) Favre could catch fire, but the Rams defense has been very good this year," Robaina said. "Their defensive backfield has really been upgraded."
The Packers are also just 5-12 against the spread their last 17 on artificial turf. Robaina said he wouldn't be surprised if the line climbed to minus 11.
"We're definitely going to need a couple of 'dogs," he said.
Credit: Vegas Insider
