Hey guys...been a while since I posted, and am doing some research in preparation for the NBA season. I don't have any historical data related to this, but figure I could get closer to what I am looking for with some help.
Let's talk about TOTALS first.
Game O/U = 202
How do this number get spread across the quarter half?
Can we assume that Vegas just takes the game line and splits it (101) and calls that the 1H O/U, or do they typically price the 1H O/U a little bit higher (being that NBA teams on average score slightly more in quarters 1 and 2, than 3 and 4)?
I am fairly confident that NBA teams on average score more in the 1Q than any other quarter, and therefore I am pretty sure Vegas will not just take 202 and cut into 4ths (50.5) and call that the 1Q O/U. The total for the 1Q is usually more than the 2Q (from me memory of looking at Greeks lines). I know it's very little, but I am looking to see if I should allocate 0.5 point or 1 point more to the 1Q instead of the 2Q.
Can anyone shed insight into this?
Also, Olympic allows you to bet on the 3rd and 4th quarter totals pre-game (and obviously at half time). I am more concerned about the pre-game allocation. Is the 3rd quarter or 4th quarter usually given more points?
I know that there is no systematic method to predict every line based on the game total...I am just looking for some info to get me closer to retro-fitting my database with these quarters and halves.
Let's talk about TOTALS first.
Game O/U = 202
How do this number get spread across the quarter half?
Can we assume that Vegas just takes the game line and splits it (101) and calls that the 1H O/U, or do they typically price the 1H O/U a little bit higher (being that NBA teams on average score slightly more in quarters 1 and 2, than 3 and 4)?
I am fairly confident that NBA teams on average score more in the 1Q than any other quarter, and therefore I am pretty sure Vegas will not just take 202 and cut into 4ths (50.5) and call that the 1Q O/U. The total for the 1Q is usually more than the 2Q (from me memory of looking at Greeks lines). I know it's very little, but I am looking to see if I should allocate 0.5 point or 1 point more to the 1Q instead of the 2Q.
Can anyone shed insight into this?
Also, Olympic allows you to bet on the 3rd and 4th quarter totals pre-game (and obviously at half time). I am more concerned about the pre-game allocation. Is the 3rd quarter or 4th quarter usually given more points?
I know that there is no systematic method to predict every line based on the game total...I am just looking for some info to get me closer to retro-fitting my database with these quarters and halves.
