This is from an article someone sent me thought a feww of you would find it interesting.
Worth reading... regarding new rules Here a reprint of an article sent to us apparently from a Las Vegas newspaper by one of our readers "Jenzee" whom we thank. We thought it worth postingWednesday, October 31, 2001 by Stephen Nover
LAS VEGAS - If you thought handicapping NBA totals was difficult before, wait until now. Four new rule changes have made the task especially daunting. Figuring out NBA ?over/unders? always was a combination of mathematics and studying team?s tendencies. With the rule changes, the emphasis has shifted to more matchup analysis. Before, you?d be safe to estimate teams would play in the 175-195 point range. The average team score last season was 94.8 points. Now the range could be anywhere from 155-205 points depending on the matchup, because of legalizing zone defenses, calling less touch fouls, not allowing defensive players to be in the lane more than three seconds and forcing teams to get the ball past mid-court in eight seconds rather than 10 seconds. ?You have to itemize now for each game,? said John Harper, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?You just can?t handicap it as a mass approach. ?It will become more like football, where if you?re looking to bet a total, you?re going to have to think how is this team going to approach that offense.? The biggest change, of course, is allowing zone defenses. This figures to aid perimeter shooting teams like the Milwaukee Bucks. ?It favors the Bucks in a couple of ways,? Harper said. ?George Karl is a little more sophisticated than most of the NBA coaches, and he?ll be willing to experiment. ?Also he has poor defenders like Sam Cassell and Glenn Robinson. By playing zone, that covers up deficiencies in individual defenders. ?At the other end of the floor, they are a jump shooting team. You wouldn?t be able to play zone against them because they have good ball movement and a lot of good jump shooters.? It also figures to help other teams that pass the ball well, since ball movement is a key. Don?t be shocked then if the New Jersey Nets surprise since they now have Jason Kidd distributing the ball. Just because zone defenses have become legal, though, don?t expect all teams to immediately start using them. Harper believes teams will gradually begin implementing zone defenses as the season progresses. ?They?ll be more emphasis on ball movement, passing, getting open shots and more double-teaming of superstars,? he said. Using a zone defense figures to also limit the isolation game of star players like Kobe Bryant and Vince Carter. It also could hurt pick-and-roll teams like the Utah Jazz. All this could make handicapping much harder, especially totals, because you might not be able to accurately project team tendencies. No team could have a set pattern. ?A lot is going to depend on how the game is developing,? Harper said. ?Maybe in the second quarter both teams start playing some packed-in zones, and nobody?s hitting shots. So the game ends up, 60-58. ?Then the next night they go back to their regular man-to-man defense and they play a 98-97 game. Since they?re playing different opponents, it?s very possible they won?t play the same type of defense each night.? Allowing zone defenses means teams now have more defensive options than before. If a team is playing its third road game in four nights, for instance, they might sit in a zone the entire game to rest their weary legs. That doesn?t necessary mean the ?under? is the way to go in that game, however. Because the home team might try to take advantage of the new eight second half-court rule and press more than normal. Often if a team presses, the game becomes faster and more up-tempo. That?s good for the ?over.? So there may be an ?over? tendency with small teams who like to press like the Boston Celtics. ?If a defense sees any team struggling to get it over mid-court, they?ll come out and press three-quarters,? Harper said. ?When ever you come out and press, that speeds up the tempo. It becomes more up and down, and the scores go higher.? Harper is neutral on the new defensive three-second rule. He doesn?t think it will factor into ?over/under? strategy. ?I don?t think it favors the offense necessarily,? he said. ?It just means guys have to move more. They just can?t plant their body, but they can be just outside the lane and back in. I don?t think that will be a big factor.? The relaxed hand check rule obviously helps the defense. The question is how much contact will referees allow? ?It will be difficult to interpret,? Harper said. ?Let?s say a guy cuts across the lane. If you put out an arm to stop him, was that momentary contact? Either way, though, it helps the defense because it allows some contact where there wasn?t any allowed before.?
[Date/Time=11-02-01 - 4:15 PM] Thinkwin, [Msgid=179110]
Worth reading... regarding new rules Here a reprint of an article sent to us apparently from a Las Vegas newspaper by one of our readers "Jenzee" whom we thank. We thought it worth postingWednesday, October 31, 2001 by Stephen Nover
LAS VEGAS - If you thought handicapping NBA totals was difficult before, wait until now. Four new rule changes have made the task especially daunting. Figuring out NBA ?over/unders? always was a combination of mathematics and studying team?s tendencies. With the rule changes, the emphasis has shifted to more matchup analysis. Before, you?d be safe to estimate teams would play in the 175-195 point range. The average team score last season was 94.8 points. Now the range could be anywhere from 155-205 points depending on the matchup, because of legalizing zone defenses, calling less touch fouls, not allowing defensive players to be in the lane more than three seconds and forcing teams to get the ball past mid-court in eight seconds rather than 10 seconds. ?You have to itemize now for each game,? said John Harper, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?You just can?t handicap it as a mass approach. ?It will become more like football, where if you?re looking to bet a total, you?re going to have to think how is this team going to approach that offense.? The biggest change, of course, is allowing zone defenses. This figures to aid perimeter shooting teams like the Milwaukee Bucks. ?It favors the Bucks in a couple of ways,? Harper said. ?George Karl is a little more sophisticated than most of the NBA coaches, and he?ll be willing to experiment. ?Also he has poor defenders like Sam Cassell and Glenn Robinson. By playing zone, that covers up deficiencies in individual defenders. ?At the other end of the floor, they are a jump shooting team. You wouldn?t be able to play zone against them because they have good ball movement and a lot of good jump shooters.? It also figures to help other teams that pass the ball well, since ball movement is a key. Don?t be shocked then if the New Jersey Nets surprise since they now have Jason Kidd distributing the ball. Just because zone defenses have become legal, though, don?t expect all teams to immediately start using them. Harper believes teams will gradually begin implementing zone defenses as the season progresses. ?They?ll be more emphasis on ball movement, passing, getting open shots and more double-teaming of superstars,? he said. Using a zone defense figures to also limit the isolation game of star players like Kobe Bryant and Vince Carter. It also could hurt pick-and-roll teams like the Utah Jazz. All this could make handicapping much harder, especially totals, because you might not be able to accurately project team tendencies. No team could have a set pattern. ?A lot is going to depend on how the game is developing,? Harper said. ?Maybe in the second quarter both teams start playing some packed-in zones, and nobody?s hitting shots. So the game ends up, 60-58. ?Then the next night they go back to their regular man-to-man defense and they play a 98-97 game. Since they?re playing different opponents, it?s very possible they won?t play the same type of defense each night.? Allowing zone defenses means teams now have more defensive options than before. If a team is playing its third road game in four nights, for instance, they might sit in a zone the entire game to rest their weary legs. That doesn?t necessary mean the ?under? is the way to go in that game, however. Because the home team might try to take advantage of the new eight second half-court rule and press more than normal. Often if a team presses, the game becomes faster and more up-tempo. That?s good for the ?over.? So there may be an ?over? tendency with small teams who like to press like the Boston Celtics. ?If a defense sees any team struggling to get it over mid-court, they?ll come out and press three-quarters,? Harper said. ?When ever you come out and press, that speeds up the tempo. It becomes more up and down, and the scores go higher.? Harper is neutral on the new defensive three-second rule. He doesn?t think it will factor into ?over/under? strategy. ?I don?t think it favors the offense necessarily,? he said. ?It just means guys have to move more. They just can?t plant their body, but they can be just outside the lane and back in. I don?t think that will be a big factor.? The relaxed hand check rule obviously helps the defense. The question is how much contact will referees allow? ?It will be difficult to interpret,? Harper said. ?Let?s say a guy cuts across the lane. If you put out an arm to stop him, was that momentary contact? Either way, though, it helps the defense because it allows some contact where there wasn?t any allowed before.?
[Date/Time=11-02-01 - 4:15 PM] Thinkwin, [Msgid=179110]
