First, I do not consider myself a good capper of hoops. I mostly tail some key folks here and very much appreciate the great runs so far.
Especially this time of year, I do find value in reversion to mean regarding shooting percentage. Just fyi, here are the shooting %s for each of today's teams in their last/most recent games:
SDSU 38% 35% 3pt
Creighton 58% 38% 3pt
Miami 52% 44% 3pt
Texas 53% 58% 3pt
I am already on Creighton ML today, in line with the best cappers here and because they are such a fundamentally solid team. But it does give me pause that SDSU shot such an average to poor % against Alabama and still won thanks to their D. I would say that odds favor SDSU shooting much better today. In particular, their leading scorer Bradley only had 6 last time out--shooting 2/9 overall and 0-2 for 3. What do I take from this? I guess I could wait for live and hope that Creighton jumps out early giving me a good buy opportunity on SDSU at +5 or 6. I really do think this will be a down to the wire game, and it would be nice to find a middle.
Not sure what to make of Miami and Texas. The Canes average 48% from the field for the season, so the 52% was not exceptionally higher than their norm. Almost the same for Texas, averaging 47% from the field for the year. They both might cool off a bit today, but not enough that I see it being relevant to side or total.
Anyway, just thought I'd share. fwiw.
Especially this time of year, I do find value in reversion to mean regarding shooting percentage. Just fyi, here are the shooting %s for each of today's teams in their last/most recent games:
SDSU 38% 35% 3pt
Creighton 58% 38% 3pt
Miami 52% 44% 3pt
Texas 53% 58% 3pt
I am already on Creighton ML today, in line with the best cappers here and because they are such a fundamentally solid team. But it does give me pause that SDSU shot such an average to poor % against Alabama and still won thanks to their D. I would say that odds favor SDSU shooting much better today. In particular, their leading scorer Bradley only had 6 last time out--shooting 2/9 overall and 0-2 for 3. What do I take from this? I guess I could wait for live and hope that Creighton jumps out early giving me a good buy opportunity on SDSU at +5 or 6. I really do think this will be a down to the wire game, and it would be nice to find a middle.
Not sure what to make of Miami and Texas. The Canes average 48% from the field for the season, so the 52% was not exceptionally higher than their norm. Almost the same for Texas, averaging 47% from the field for the year. They both might cool off a bit today, but not enough that I see it being relevant to side or total.
Anyway, just thought I'd share. fwiw.
