Interesting system

[prestidig]

Thought I would try a system based on the Massey ratings:

It's a simple idea. Convert the Massey ratings prediction odds into a money line, compare it to book's lines and look for longterm favorable expectation. (like pot odds in poker)

For example, according to the Massey ratings the Braves have a 58% chance of winning tonight. 58% converts to a money line of
-138. The current line is Atlanta +130 (in other words, the books are giving the Braves a 43% chance of winning) Thats a huge overlay, and the Braves are a play.

I will give it a try for a week and see how it does. Always looking for dogs or small favs. Here are the plays that qualify today:

Atlanta (+130) = 43% Massey 58%=(-138)
Montreal (+138) =42% Massey 56%=(-127)
Houston (-119) =54 % Massey 61% = (-160)

What do you all think?

 

[mack the knife]

tread carefully. As far as I know, have read, and talked with other who tried, this doesn't pan out without tweaking the numbers.

 

[Ice Picks]

HELLO

HELLO

PRESTO - will we see you in the Old Dominion this week-end???


Give me a call................IP

 

[prestidig]

Tuesday

Tuesday

Not a bad start on Monday 3-0 (+3.68 units)


Tuesday's plays:

FLA (-102) = 50% Massey 58% = (-138)
COL (-124) =56% Massey 62% = (-160)
CWS (-174) = 63% Massey 77% =(-330)***
*** playing CWS on the runline -1.5 (+120) rather than laying big chalk.

 

[JOE IN NY]

Smart thinking I hope it works out for all of us.

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

outta curiousity, where can i find this massey rating?

 

[grooven]

outta curiousity, where can i find this massey rating?

http://www.masseyratings.com/index.htm

 

[bjfinste]

I'm really bad at math. How do you convert the moneylines into percentages?

 

[prestidig]

I found an odds conversion table on one of my sports books.

Here is the link:

http://www.wsex.com/about/conv.html

The market price is equal to the percentage.

 

[prestidig]

Wednesday's plays

Wednesday's plays

The system is 5-1 on the moneyline. I took one game on the runline and lost.

Today's plays:

KC (+122) =45% Massey 58% =(-138)
Mil (+120) =45% Massey 50% = (+100)

 

[prestidig]

Thursday's Retro-plays

Thursday's Retro-plays

Yesterday 0-2
System is 5-3 (+2.66 units)

Didn't have time to cap the games today, but I wanted to see how the system would have done.

Todays qualifying games would have been:

Anaheim (+155) = 40% Massey 55%= (-122)
Montreal (+105) = 49% Massey 55% =(-122)
Baltimore (+135) = 43% Massey 54% =(-117)
Milwaukee (+180) =36% Massey 47% = (+113)

The next step in this system is to look for compelling reasons NOT to play the proposed selection. I would have thrown out Anaheim simply because there is no way the Yankee's are going to get swept at home. Mil. looks like a good value, but what a heartbreaker in losing in 17.

It looks like the final card: Mon, Bal, Mil is 0-3 pr 1-2 depending on the outcome of the Mon. game. (still in progress) Not great...but it will be interesting to see how the system fairs in the long term.

 

[british bulldog]

Only a quick observation

So far if you take the books line and it is fav or - figure and the massy ratings say it should be higher you would be 5 - 1. It is the dogs that are letting you down. I know it is early days but I would think that is a trait that would continue.

I would suggest that you monitior system as a whole and incorporate five sub sections.

favs -200 and higher
favs -150 to -199
favs -101 to -149
dogs +100 to +140
dogs +141 and higher.

From a quick glance you will see which area is giving you the greater return.

 

[prestidig]

Friday's plays

Friday's plays

Yesterday 0-3 (-3 units)

System is now 5-6 (-0.34 units)

Todays card:

Montreal (-102) = 50% Massey 60%=(-150)
Minny (-118) = 54% Massey 64%=(-180)
Floriday (+149) = 40% Massey 51%=(-104)

Bulldog, thanks for the insight. I think your suggestion is a great idea. Along those lines, two big favs qualify as plays in a separate category.

Sea (-255) = 72% Massey 79% =-380
Oak (-175) =64% Massey 75% =-300

My original intention was to find dogs or small favs with a big overlay. I will begin a new section of big favs....

 

[prestidig]

Saturday

Saturday

Yesterday:

2-1 on small favs/dogs

1-1 big favs

Todays plays:

Ana (+112) = 47% Massey 53%=(-113)
Min (-139) = 58% Massey 70%=(-230)
Cin (-124) = 55% Massey 67%= (-200)
TB (+140) = 42% Massey 52 % = (-108)


also...
Oak (-162) = 62% Massey 68% (=-210)

 

[prestidig]

Sunday

Sunday

Yesterday:

small favs/dogs 2-2

The system is 9-9 so far....

big favs- 0-1
1-2

Todays plays:

TB (+129) =44% Massey 57% = (-133)
Hou (+112) = 47% Massey 53% = (-113)
CWS (+123) = 45% Massey 54% = (-117)
Pit (+144) =41% Massey 50% = (+100) ***
Tor (+110) = 48% Massey 55% = (-122) ***

***May fade due to home teams trying to avoid being swept.