Interesting trends - ATL/TAMPA BAY

[Mickey's Picks]

I spend a lot of time looking at trends to incorporate into my handicapping and when I find something that appears noteworthy I try to use it for an edge. Have been observing a fair amount of conference match-ups where teams that have won the first match-up are also winning the second match-up. I used this last week in taking Buffalo over Miami and New Orleans over Tampa Bay.

In no conference has this been more pronounced than in the NFC South. Look at these stats:

Carolina:

Atlanta 0-2
Tampa Bay 0-2
New Orleans 0-1

New Orleans:

Atlanta 0-2
Tampa Bay 2-0
Carolina 1-0

Atlanta:

Carolina 2-0
New Orleans 2-0
Tampa Bay 0-1

Tampa Bay:

Carolina 2-0
New Orleans 0-2
Atlanta 1-0

Teams winning the first match-up on the road have done especially well in the secong match-up at home. Many here saw a Tampa Bay win last week and many touted the Saints to win/cover against Atlanta in the second match-up. I've never been much of a fan betting Tampa Bay (usually pass or go against) but I am going with the Bucs (supported by other reasons too) as I think this trend should not be bucked.

For the same reason I'm going with New England to once again beat Buffalo (won on road in first match-up and now at home makes this a stronger play). Buffalo 2-0 against Dolphins, 0-2 against Jets.

I'm also taking Tennessee over Indianapolis (trend not as strongly established but like the fact that Tennessee won first match-up on the road).

Good luck in today's games.

 

[ctownguy]

Curious angle, it will be interesting to see how it plays out today?

Have you researched any other of the conferences to see how it plays or are you saying that it just seems to be in the above conferences that it plays out?

 

[Mickey's Picks]

ctown......

A lot of the conferences haven't had the second match-ups yet so it will become more evident with each passing week. A few conference match-ups going today so could be an indication for next week (or this week even if one wanted to assume that this trend may apply in other conferences as well).

Another conference that has played a number of second match-ups is the AFC North:

Pittsburgh:

Cleveland 2-0
Cincinnati 2-0
Baltimore 1-0

Cleveland:

Pittsburgh 0-2
Cincinnati 2-0
Baltimore 0-1

Baltimore:

Cincinnati 2-0
Cleveland 1-0
Pittsburgh 0-1

I am looking for Pittsburgh over Baltimore in the second match-up (stronger play also as Pittsburgh won first match-up on the road) and Baltimore over Cleveland in the second match-up (also stronger play as Baltimore won first match-up on the road.)

 

[Mickey's Picks]

Went 3-0 on these trends today as noted. Keep these in mind when playing in the coming weeks.

 

[ctownguy]

Mickey, it sure did turn out good. Keep us informed on this trend if you can, looks like something to play next time.

I was on Tampa today but went with indy maybe next time I'll listen to ya.

Great day, keep up the good work:thumb:

 

[Mickey's Picks]

Trend is still valid and continues to provide winners.

As noted in my earlier post (two weeks back), I will be on Baltimore in today's match-up which is a very strong play.

Don't post as often as I'd like but this trend pointed me to play Philly last night when many were taking the points with Dallas. Same angle applied last week with Philly over Washington (a winner for me) and Giants over Dallas (a loser for me as I inexplicably overlooked my own trend).

Other wagers I will be making today based on this trend:

New England over the Jets which is another strong play.

Oakland over Denver which is not as strong a play as the first two.

Kansas City over San Diego which is also not as strong a play as the first two.

Good luck to all in todays games.