International

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one early outright to place @ skybet (top 5)
Riley 12/1

Not out of top 15 in last 3 here including 2nd and looks to have regained current form with recent 2nd place finish.

72 holes @ B&W (ties lose )
Lehman -115 over Cabrera
Haas -110 over Norman
Trip -110 over Lowery
Ames -110 over Franco

Hate ties lose but sure like thier opening lines.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 12/1 e.w. available generally
Find it hard to pass up these odds on Singh and Love. They are both former winners of this event, both rank in the top-10 in the birdie stat categories and are both in great form. Singh has yet to finish outside the top-20 of any event since the Players Championship in March (11 events)! That run includes a win (Byron Nelson Championship) as well as two 2nd place finishes. He has a good record on this course and should be on the leaderboard on Sunday.

Davis Love to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
DL3 has been just as consistent as Singh this season - he has 11 top-20 finishes from 14 starts this year, including three wins and a further 2nd place. Like Singh, he ranks in the top-10 in the 'birdie conversion' and 'birdie average' stats, plus he also ranks in the top-10 in the eagles stat as well. He seems perfectly poised to post yet another title-contending effort.

Fred Funk to finish in the top-five 25/1 @ SkyBet
Funk may not be as prolific a winner as the first two selections - and he probably won't win again until he joins the Champions Tour in three years time - but these are extremely large odds for a place finish. He may not have played in this event since 1995 and the course may be long, but once altitude is taken into account, it only plays as 6,900 yards - well within Funk's range. He is also 2nd ranked in total birdies in 2003 and has finished in the top-five in two of his previous seven starts. Having been a selection at 13/1 to finish in the top-five last week and having been on the fringes of contention throughout, he is certainly worth a speculative punt at almost double last week's odds.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes @ sia
Riley -128 over Casey

Steep price especially with ties lose (which is due to bite me in the ass eventially) but better than the -150 SB went to shortly after dropping lines.
However feel it justified as Casey not much success in US and probably 1st time playing at this altitude which can give newbies fits on club selection.

 

[kjls04202]

Strongly fancied Love this week but cannot forgive him for the way he played the first seven holes in the last two rounds in The Open after having it by the scruff of the neck.
No I am going to go with Garcia to finally come good and Mickelson likewise. Chris Riley also makes some appeal.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Reluctantly I am forced to add 2 more outrights @ Skybet to place (5places)

Funk 25/1
Haas 20/1

Hate this event but would not sleep if let these vets slip by and they fired.

Haas break even place odds so far in 2003 are 3.6 (5 top 5's in 18 events)
Funks 7.6 (3 top 5's in 23 events)

Can't say I have ever seen that big a difference in ratio other than due to injury or total loss of form.

Olympic has Funk 30/1 Haas 20/1 (4 places) for U.S. patrons

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I took that 30-1 on Funk at Oly. Hope 5th place doesnt come back to bite me.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Uncharacteristically, I'll commit early on a couple of choices, and then wait for the shoe to drop on why I should have waited, although the first bit of news is good, since I consider both of them to have drawn favorable pairings. The circumstances (and price) seem quite agreeable for both of these players arriving on an up tick and being anxious for a trip to the winner's circle this week without undue regard for the PGA Championship next week.

Steve Lowery(66/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Atoning or redemption or going one better have been pretty much languishing as a theme during this season, so much so that I haven't even bothered to give it much thought on a weekly basis (although Evans and Levet were a couple of notable exceptions that I seriously considered during The Open Championship). But this week seems to fit the mold rather nicely for putting a spring in Lowery's step, provided he gets off on the right foot with his driving. (Just an aside: On the other hand, a trend I think I have been noticing that has to be outdistancing it's historical benchmark involves a number of players shining with exceptional performances in the week or the tournament played immediately before they have a title to defend).

Sergio Garcia(22/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
I had a fine run opposing Sergio during the first half of the year. I've been poking around successfully while backing him with small plays of late, and now I'll step up to the plate with him this week, and see if we can keep a good thing going. A bounce from staring down Woods and Els also seems worth noting.

Next in line with only a dabble for now are Appleby(70/1) and Riley(40/1), but those are "unofficial" so far. And as DTB noted, Funk and Haas are hardly in the throes of a meltdown that would explain their prices, although I usually pull the trigger much more on the basis of information or angles rather than scouring for value in the price.

GL
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Local Newspaper:

So far it appears that the local newspaper provides better coverage and more useful perspectives than I have come to expect of late.

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,,36~4327~~filter~8_05_2003,00.html
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President's Cup:

I've found these types of stats to be most helpful on Sundays in assessing who might have some easily overlooked motivation, especially without the pressure of contending.

http://www.presidentscup.com/news/crunch080403.html

 

[altice]

Large222 Plays - (He is on vacation and wanted me to post this)

Goosen over Toms 1/2 unit (+121)
Clarke over Couples 1 unit (-133) - He really likes this one
Flesch over Riley 1 unit (+124)
Kaye over McArron 1/2 unit (+102)

 

[Whalers Rule]

Three players I am backing

Robert Allenby 55-1 e-w
All it will take is fro one week he could make some putts.

Shaun Micheel 200-1 e-w
Has played very well last two weeks. Last week first round he hit 17 gir and last round 16, so obviouslly hitting it well.

MAtthew Goggin 50-1 Place top five only

Others thinking about included Chalmers, GArcia, and Duval? this format could help him.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Briny Baird to beat Heath Slocum -125 @ Carib
Both players in good form, but moreso Baird who has finished 7th and 2nd in the last two weeks. Will side with the player who has far more cuts this year and has a 5-2-0 h2h lead over the past three months.
(Also available at Aces)

Chad Campbell to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -133 @ NordicBet
Few can compare with Campbell's form this season and apart from two runners-up positions in March, that includes two top-10 finishes in his last three PGA Tour starts. Ollie certainly can't match that form and while he is a former winner of this event (1991), he has not played well here since his return from injury. Can't see any reason for this week to be any different.

Fred Couples to beat Geoff Ogilvy -110 @ SIA
Ogilvy did finish 2nd last week and this format should suit his game, but he had missed his previous six cuts so his newly-found confidence should be a little fragile. No such problems for Couples who hasn't missed a cut since January and won an event in that time (Houston Open).
(Also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Jay Haas to beat Hank Kuehne -115 @ WWTS
This format should Kuehne, but he has obviously had problems with the altitude as he has missed the cut on all three previous visits. He has a similar problem this year - either very good or very bad weeks - and has yet to finish ahead of Haas in any event in the last three months. Haas can also claim three top-10 finishes in his last eight visits to Castle Pines.

Mike Weir to beat Sergio Garcia -145 @ Aces
Garcia is clearly reaping the rewards from his swing changes as he has recorded his first top-10 finishes of the year in his last two events, but he will need to putt better if he is to challenge for this title. No such frustrations for Weir who has won three times this year, missed only one cut and is a frontrunner (with Furyk) for the Player of the Year award.
(Also available at Carib)

Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson -111 @ BetandWin
No sign aspirations for Mickelson - his best finish in his last six events has been 30th and it seems a very long time since he finished 3rd behind Weir at the Masters. His great record in this event has also started to wane - he finished 71st in 2001 and missed the cut last year - so is easily opposed with the best Lefty on Tour at the moment.
(Also available at Nordicbet, Intertops, William Hill and Easybets)

Davis Love to beat Phil Mickelson -133 @ Centrebet
Also easy to oppose Mickelson with two of the outright selections. Love is a very strong candidate for next week's PGA Championship and the days of hit or miss with DL3 have not been frequent in 2003.
(Also available at SIA, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -170 @ WSEX
Shorter odds, but Singh won this event in 1998 and hasn't finished outside the top-20 in any event since March. No comparison between these two players.

 

[sports student]

72 hole

Funk +102 over Haas (pinnacle)
Clarke -120 over Couples (canbet)
Toms -1/2 even over Mick (365)
Riley -1/2 -138 over Casey (sportingbet)
Appleby -1/2 -125 over Lowery "
Herron -1/2 +110 over Austin "

 

[Another Steve]

Davis Love III WINS THE INTERNA+14.00

Took this for 1 Unit. Feel DLIII will be near the Top the whole tourny. Stanley's write up sold me.

 

[Whalers Rule]

Matchups 72 holes All at ****** 2 units each

Allenby +100 over Leonard
Lehman +103 over Janzen
Magee +110 over Herron
Quigley -115 over Parnebik
Cejka -115 over LEaney

 

[IX_Bender]

Certainly not a newbie here or exactly one to follow on links picks. Going against Campbell during the British Open did not fare well.

Playing one matchup only

Clarke -115 over Couples.

 

[crookycymru]

Sergio Garcia to beat Retief Goosen at 10/11 with SportingOdds

Mike Weir to beat David Toms at 9/10 with Stan James

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS: Adding . . .

Stuart Appleby(70/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5 dimes
(1) He very much likes the course and the format, he does quite well on Nicklaus designs, and I think he is in his element at this pampered international event. (2) There are hints of some decent form, although I have always expected a little more out of his ability than has been forthcoming. (3) Unlike last week at Warwick Hills, international players have had plenty of success at Castle Pines. (4) It's an old refrain, but I think I've had more than my share of instances of picking a player one week early (Briny Baird at Hartford and Andrew Coltart at the Irish Open are just the latest examples), and although I'm not complaining as I much prefer being ahead of the mark rather than late to the table, I'm sure I'm nuts to use Appleby as my choice to stick with for an additional week. Nuts and lost.

1st Round Leader @ 5 dimes:

Fred Funk(60/1) for 0.20*
Lee Westwood(100/1) for 0.20*


Matchups (Tournament):

Cejka(-115) over Leaney for 1* @ 5 dimes
Baddeley(-105) over Fasth for 1* @ 5 dimes
Cabrera(-115) over Kuehne for 1* @ 5 dimes
PARLAY Appleby(+103) over Cink w/ Couples(+110) over Clarke w/ Beem(+135) over Mickelson for 1* @ 9.02/1 @ 5 dimes

GL

 

[sports student]

1st round at 5 dimes

Weir -110 over Rollins/Willis

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd @ $plays
Riley -105 over Lowery
Despite being outscored 9 points to 2 on par 5's by Lowery he still beat him yesterday which would give me indication his ballstriking is much better. With lowerys last rd last year including eagle and double eagle he has ate up these par 5's but ranking of 125 at 39% birdie conversions on par 5's this year might indicate a quirk more so than the norm. We'll see.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Baird/Slocum Leads by 1
Campbell/Olazabal Leads by 2
Couples/Ogilvy Trails by 3
Haas/Kuehne WON by 3
Weir/Garcia Trails by 3
Weir/Mickelson Trails by 15
Love/Mickelson Leads by 14
Singh/Mickelson Trails by 3

Singh 4th
Love 1st
Funk mc

This event was almost over yesterday when Love pulled out to a 25pt lead during his round, but a late double-bogey on a par-5 has made it more exciting, I suppose. Only failures were Funk, who floundered, and Weir, who dropped 8pts in his last five holes and could miss the 2nd cut.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st cut 2nd rd 0-1 72 holes 1-3

2nd rd
Riley/Lowery loss
Bout prematurely counted this as win till Lowery got 7 points on last 4 holes including eagle from fairway on par 4

72 holes
Lehman/Cabrera win
Haas/Norman loss
Trip/Lowery loss
Ames/Franco loss
Riley/Casey 5 down

Outrights Haas-Funk cut Riley 21st

Will take my lumps on this eagle contest and call it a tourney.
Don't think I have ever ended in the black on this tourney in last 4 years,someone remind me next year to stop before I start instead of waiting till cut.