Invest the Juice - 7 Game Parlay Theory
This theory is honor of Nolan Dalla. Nolan puts in a lot of hard work when finding the winners each week, but he also works just as hard, if not harder, in trying to find a system that gives us, the players, an advantage over (or at least evens the odds against) the house. His Goldman system theory is proof of that. In the end, the answers to the origin of the universe maybe easier to obtain than the answers to the science of sports wagering, but since we have the questions it is our duty to try and answer them.
As a disclaimer, what you are about to read is not for the faint of heart, as I attempt to unlock the benefits of the 7 game parlay. Unlike Nolan, I have not tested or observed my theory using past plays, and outcomes and I do not recommend this theory without more research being done.
If you have read this far, then you are not a gambler that only opens a thread to look for a team to add to your list of plays. It?s funny though that those same threads were the catalysts that started my thinking process on this theory.
Although this theory was drafted with football in mind there is no reason that it could not be applied to other sports. I do believe that football gives the best advantage because it gives more games to play and more time to study. Also, in the end a common sense interpretation is used, which does weaken my theory. Now would be a good time to start into the body of the theory before I lose anymore readers.
The theory starts with the concept of - Investing the Juice - On even odds we all pay it, and that?s the way it will always be. Instead, if we said, "Okay bookie, I?m going to hand over the extra $10 but if I hit all of my games you pay me an extra $920.00. Before I go on, the reason that I started thinking about this is because, here at MadJacks you can wander around the threads and find someone who had a 5,6,7,8 and 0 weekend. They are out there, albeit not every weekend and not every handicapper. This next section will layout the numbers and ideas behind the numbers that will be analyzed in the end.
The numbers I used were for a person that wagered $110 on 7 games a week for a 16 week season. The wager is a flat $110 a game and does not include playing more money on one game and less on another. Betting 7 games a week for a 16 week season would mean 112 wagers are placed a season. Betting $110 a piece on the 112 games would equal a stake amount for the year of $12,320. A week you would wager $770 to profit $700 or a year you would wager $12,320 to profit $11,200. This will be referred to as the conventional style. To review
$110 a game
7 games a week
16 weeks in a season
112 games bet on
$12,320 stake amount
$11,200 maximum profit margin
My proposal is to wager 6 games at $110 and the 7th at $100. The extra $10 that was removed would be played in a 7 game parlay (odds ~92/1) This would mean wager $760 a week to profit $691 and a wager of $10 to profit $920. If you include the parlay wager but throw out the $920 potential profit margin, at the end of the year you still have wagered $12,320 but reduced your potential profit margin to $10,192 a season. The difference between $11,200 and $10,192 is $1,008, ($9 a week)which is a large difference, but this is the maximum difference there would be if you hit all 112 games. And who?s going to complain about a grand if they go 112 for 112. Now the two season winning percentages that I pulled were 53..5% and 54.5%. 53.5% was used because I can round the number of games won to 60 (112* 53.571428571% = 60) I used 54.5% to get to 61 wins and show the difference between winning one extra game (Of note - I also need that extra game from the 54.5% to draw my weakened common sense conclusion) This will be referred to as the parlay style. To review
$110 a game on 6 games
$100 on the 7th game (Order is not important just needs to be 1 of 7.)
$10 on the same 7 games in a parlay
7 games a week
16 weeks in a season
112 games bet on
16 parlays played
$12,320 stake amount
$10,192 maximum profit margin excluding parlay profit margin
Risk/Reward
By investing the juice once a week on a 7 game parlay, we turn 770/700(conventional) into 770/1611, or it could be viewed as 760/691 and 10/920. Of course the odds are stacked against you but on the flip side, the weekends in the past that you have gone 7-0 (although still rewarding) always leave you with the what if questions. They do creep into all of our heads regardless of what anyone might say. In number terms, the risk here is $160 a season that on one weekend out of 16 you?ll hit all 7 games. For the sake of the reader I?ll get to the chart that will allow you to draw your own conclusions.
This theory is honor of Nolan Dalla. Nolan puts in a lot of hard work when finding the winners each week, but he also works just as hard, if not harder, in trying to find a system that gives us, the players, an advantage over (or at least evens the odds against) the house. His Goldman system theory is proof of that. In the end, the answers to the origin of the universe maybe easier to obtain than the answers to the science of sports wagering, but since we have the questions it is our duty to try and answer them.
As a disclaimer, what you are about to read is not for the faint of heart, as I attempt to unlock the benefits of the 7 game parlay. Unlike Nolan, I have not tested or observed my theory using past plays, and outcomes and I do not recommend this theory without more research being done.
If you have read this far, then you are not a gambler that only opens a thread to look for a team to add to your list of plays. It?s funny though that those same threads were the catalysts that started my thinking process on this theory.
Although this theory was drafted with football in mind there is no reason that it could not be applied to other sports. I do believe that football gives the best advantage because it gives more games to play and more time to study. Also, in the end a common sense interpretation is used, which does weaken my theory. Now would be a good time to start into the body of the theory before I lose anymore readers.
The theory starts with the concept of - Investing the Juice - On even odds we all pay it, and that?s the way it will always be. Instead, if we said, "Okay bookie, I?m going to hand over the extra $10 but if I hit all of my games you pay me an extra $920.00. Before I go on, the reason that I started thinking about this is because, here at MadJacks you can wander around the threads and find someone who had a 5,6,7,8 and 0 weekend. They are out there, albeit not every weekend and not every handicapper. This next section will layout the numbers and ideas behind the numbers that will be analyzed in the end.
The numbers I used were for a person that wagered $110 on 7 games a week for a 16 week season. The wager is a flat $110 a game and does not include playing more money on one game and less on another. Betting 7 games a week for a 16 week season would mean 112 wagers are placed a season. Betting $110 a piece on the 112 games would equal a stake amount for the year of $12,320. A week you would wager $770 to profit $700 or a year you would wager $12,320 to profit $11,200. This will be referred to as the conventional style. To review
$110 a game
7 games a week
16 weeks in a season
112 games bet on
$12,320 stake amount
$11,200 maximum profit margin
My proposal is to wager 6 games at $110 and the 7th at $100. The extra $10 that was removed would be played in a 7 game parlay (odds ~92/1) This would mean wager $760 a week to profit $691 and a wager of $10 to profit $920. If you include the parlay wager but throw out the $920 potential profit margin, at the end of the year you still have wagered $12,320 but reduced your potential profit margin to $10,192 a season. The difference between $11,200 and $10,192 is $1,008, ($9 a week)which is a large difference, but this is the maximum difference there would be if you hit all 112 games. And who?s going to complain about a grand if they go 112 for 112. Now the two season winning percentages that I pulled were 53..5% and 54.5%. 53.5% was used because I can round the number of games won to 60 (112* 53.571428571% = 60) I used 54.5% to get to 61 wins and show the difference between winning one extra game (Of note - I also need that extra game from the 54.5% to draw my weakened common sense conclusion) This will be referred to as the parlay style. To review
$110 a game on 6 games
$100 on the 7th game (Order is not important just needs to be 1 of 7.)
$10 on the same 7 games in a parlay
7 games a week
16 weeks in a season
112 games bet on
16 parlays played
$12,320 stake amount
$10,192 maximum profit margin excluding parlay profit margin
Risk/Reward
By investing the juice once a week on a 7 game parlay, we turn 770/700(conventional) into 770/1611, or it could be viewed as 760/691 and 10/920. Of course the odds are stacked against you but on the flip side, the weekends in the past that you have gone 7-0 (although still rewarding) always leave you with the what if questions. They do creep into all of our heads regardless of what anyone might say. In number terms, the risk here is $160 a season that on one weekend out of 16 you?ll hit all 7 games. For the sake of the reader I?ll get to the chart that will allow you to draw your own conclusions.
