Irish Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Richard Green to beat Darren Clarke +100 @ Paddy Power
Clarke gets favouritism as the home player, but Green has been playing the better golf: in their last 10 common events, Clarke has finished ahead of Green just three times and in terms of rd1 scores, he has shot the lower score just twice over the same period.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Siem tb Havret +102; Fernandez-Castano tb Wood +111]

 

[Another Steve]

ODDS TO WIN THE IRISH OPEN DAMIEN MCGRANE +4000

 

[Whalers Rule]

Outrights 1 unit e.w.

C Nilsson 250-1
Huldahl 300-1
Cevaer 400-1
Bebb 500-1

First Round leader 1 unit e.w.

Huldahl 175-1
Bebb 3001

First Round matchup
Ferrie -105 over Zanotti

 

[lostinamerica]

Chris Wood(50/1) e.w.
Bradley Dredge(50/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Damien McGrane to beat Richard Green -130 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Green who delivered in the first round, but he does have a good record of starting events well - he held the lead last week after the first round, but then shot 71-73-74 to finish 14th. This time, David Howell took the clubhouse lead from Green after he had held it for most of the day, but Green's general record is that he does not follow up these fast starts with good 2nd round performances. His tendency for fast starts is shown by the fact that he has now been in the top-5 after the 1st round on in a quarter of his 24 starts since July last year (including being 1st round leader twice), but he has remained in the top-10 after the 2nd round just once and averaged 71.4 over the 2nd round scores. McGrane comes into this event in great form with five top-20 finishes in his last six starts (and seven in his last ten, with just one missed cut) and can be counted on to remain in contention for much longer than Green this week.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Lawrie Pa tb Morrison -115; Dredge tb Green +120; Rose tb Clarke -110; Rumford tb Noh -111; Lawrie Pa tb McGinley +100; Clarke tb Green -120; Fisher R tb Clarke -130; Rumford tb Fernandez-Castano -118; Haastrup tb Kulacz -115; Lee tb Dodt -105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

David Howell to beat Sam Hutsby +100 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power [available generally]
It was always going to be a difficult round today for Howler - the last time that he held the 1st round lead was in 2006 - and after opening with a double-bogey, it was made even more difficult. However, I think he bounces back to a degree tomorrow. He has been working hard on swing changes after going back to his old coach, Clive Tucker, and they hve been bearing fruit: he has had two top-40 finishes in his last two starts and came close to winning the JP McManus Invitational event as well, so Thursday's 64 wasn't completely out of the blue. The pressure of being just outside the top-120 on the Race to Dubai standings - and so be in place to retain his Tour Card for 2011 - has been evident on Hutsby. In the Scottish Open three weeks ago, he was 17th after three rounds, but then shot 76 to finish 34th, and last week he was 17th after two rounds, but then shot 77-72 to finish 41st. He enters this weekend in 19th position and his recent history suggests he may struggle to convert this opportunity.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Green tb Clarke +120; Harrington tb Fisher R +100]

 

[Scooter777]

Round 3 play (2pts):

David Howell to beat Sam Hutsby +100 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power [available generally]
It was always going to be a difficult round today for Howler - the last time that he held the 1st round lead was in 2006 - and after opening with a double-bogey, it was made even more difficult. However, I think he bounces back to a degree tomorrow. He has been working hard on swing changes after going back to his old coach, Clive Tucker, and they hve been bearing fruit: he has had two top-40 finishes in his last two starts and came close to winning the JP McManus Invitational event as well, so Thursday's 64 wasn't completely out of the blue. The pressure of being just outside the top-120 on the Race to Dubai standings - and so be in place to retain his Tour Card for 2011 - has been evident on Hutsby. In the Scottish Open three weeks ago, he was 17th after three rounds, but then shot 76 to finish 34th, and last week he was 17th after two rounds, but then shot 77-72 to finish 41st. He enters this weekend in 19th position and his recent history suggests he may struggle to convert this opportunity.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Green tb Clarke +120; Harrington tb Fisher R +100]

It looks like (almost) all the books offering this have it as a "Ties Lose" bet, including Skybet and PaddyPower.
Or at least I'm assuming that if there's an option to bet the tie, that means that ties lose unless the tie option has been bet.
Is that correct?

 

[Stanley]

It looks like (almost) all the books offering this have it as a "Ties Lose" bet, including Skybet and PaddyPower.
Or at least I'm assuming that if there's an option to bet the tie, that means that ties lose unless the tie option has been bet.
Is that correct?

Yes, the tie would lose.

However, several books - Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill - also list the matchups with the ties void option as well. I will always pick this option where available as it represents better value.

For example, Skybet were +120 on Howell with the tie and +100 without it, while Paddy Power were +110 on Howell with the tie and +100 without it. Convert those odds into percentages and Skybet's 'tie loses' odds (compaired to 'ties void' odds) implied that there was a 4.5% chance of a tie and Paddy Power's 'tie loses' odds implied that there was a 2.4% chance of a tie!

When these bookies offer the tie in this matchup at +800 and +750 respectively - which mean 11.1% and 11.8% probabilities respectively - it is clear that to take the bet with 'ties lose' is a very poor value bet compared to the 'ties void' option.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Richard Bland 200-1 :shrug:

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Marcel Siem to beat Sam Hutsby +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
Opposing Hutsby again for the same reasons as yesterday as he managed to climb one place to 18th after today's round. Really, he should have been beaten by Howell, but he came home in 40. However, Siem is a much more consistent player: he has made his last eight cuts and that includes top-30 finishes in four of his last five starts. He should be able to capitalise on Hutsby's expected struggles tomorrow.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Hansen tb Noh -108; Hansen tb Edfors -111; Fernandez-Castano tb Noh -111; McGinley tb Hutsby -111; McGinley tb Hoey +115; Molinari tb Fisher R -110; Lowry tb Clarke -104]

 

[Scooter777]

Yes, the tie would lose.

However, several books - Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill - also list the matchups with the ties void option as well. I will always pick this option where available as it represents better value.

For example, Skybet were +120 on Howell with the tie and +100 without it, while Paddy Power were +110 on Howell with the tie and +100 without it. Convert those odds into percentages and Skybet's 'tie loses' odds (compaired to 'ties void' odds) implied that there was a 4.5% chance of a tie and Paddy Power's 'tie loses' odds implied that there was a 2.4% chance of a tie!

When these bookies offer the tie in this matchup at +800 and +750 respectively - which mean 11.1% and 11.8% probabilities respectively - it is clear that to take the bet with 'ties lose' is a very poor value bet compared to the 'ties void' option.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[orient]

Round 4:

Harrington over Wood -113