is betting this world cup soccer the worst betting a person can make. I have bet 6 matches and won 1.(3 draws)............most team events you wager on have 2 outcomes, your team either wins or loses and you either win or lose your bet...pointspreads has 3 outcomes, you lose,you lose but cover so you win your bet, or you win outright..........but you dont lose your bet if there happens to be a tie, What a bunch of crap when there is a draw in soccer. Sportsbooks have to love taking action on this sport. That will be the last time I bet soccer........
Is it just me or..............
- Thread starter maverick2112
- Start date
I may be a whiner but you wrote a few days back.........................
Fielder Indifference? Why?
I just finished listening to the A's/Brewers game and can't figure out something that happened in the ninth inning. A's up by 2 runs and Milwaukee gets a runner on first - Richie Sexson - in the ninth. During the next at bat Milwaukee sends Sexson to second, presumably to avoid the force out at second and because they know the A's will not try and throw him out because his run "doesn't matter".
Why don't they try and throw him out?? Conventional thinking says his run doesn't matter so ignore him, but that is the very reason they should try for him, isn't it? It's a free shot at the game ending out against a guy with 0 SB's so far this year - and if you throw the ball into centre field, who cares?
The defense risks nothing in trying to throw out these baserunners yet you see fielder indifference in these late inning situations all the time. Doesn't make sense!
At least I can figure out in baseball when youre up by 2 runs and have 2 outs and 1 man on, the only man to be concerned with is the man at the plate,1 run cant hurt you, 2 runs can, the guy on first "really doesnt matter"... this is second grade baseball.........get a clue!!!!!
Maybe I was whining a little but I dont really see anyone exactly burning it up in soccer, I was just commenting on how difficult it is.
Fielder Indifference? Why?
I just finished listening to the A's/Brewers game and can't figure out something that happened in the ninth inning. A's up by 2 runs and Milwaukee gets a runner on first - Richie Sexson - in the ninth. During the next at bat Milwaukee sends Sexson to second, presumably to avoid the force out at second and because they know the A's will not try and throw him out because his run "doesn't matter".
Why don't they try and throw him out?? Conventional thinking says his run doesn't matter so ignore him, but that is the very reason they should try for him, isn't it? It's a free shot at the game ending out against a guy with 0 SB's so far this year - and if you throw the ball into centre field, who cares?
The defense risks nothing in trying to throw out these baserunners yet you see fielder indifference in these late inning situations all the time. Doesn't make sense!
At least I can figure out in baseball when youre up by 2 runs and have 2 outs and 1 man on, the only man to be concerned with is the man at the plate,1 run cant hurt you, 2 runs can, the guy on first "really doesnt matter"... this is second grade baseball.........get a clue!!!!!
Maybe I was whining a little but I dont really see anyone exactly burning it up in soccer, I was just commenting on how difficult it is.
maverick2112 each person talk about your perspective, but a lot of people win money, we have big underdogs, like playing against pedro mtz and randy johnson at same time!!!
Just bet what you know, and finally money is money!! just fvckin money!!
I like to bet just for fun!
Good luck Maverick and you can bet follow the picks of this forum, are a lot of winning men!!
Good luck
Javier
(17-7-1 WC Record)
Just bet what you know, and finally money is money!! just fvckin money!!
I like to bet just for fun!
Good luck Maverick and you can bet follow the picks of this forum, are a lot of winning men!!
Good luck
Javier
(17-7-1 WC Record)KsYaS..............I agree with you, alot of people do win on this site. Thats why its the best gaming info site on the net. I didnt mean there arent people here with good records in soccer, including you, congrats on yours. The funny thing about my first post saying I was done with soccer, I then won 4 in a row, maybe I got frustrated to soon. I guess watching England-Nigeria play to a 0-0 draw at 3 in the morning will do that to ya. Good Luck
Yes!! FVCKIN TIME ON THIS WORLD CUP!!!!!!
Good luck!! expect you continue your streak, the 80% of the teams on Baseball who are in a 4 game winning streak, wins the 5th!!!
later
Javier
Good luck!! expect you continue your streak, the 80% of the teams on Baseball who are in a 4 game winning streak, wins the 5th!!!
later
Javier
I guess my origional post wasnt stupid whining after all...................I see Nolan Dalla used it as his question of the day (see his free picks page)in and at the end of his article he states
So, the system is clearly geared to screw the public in World Cup soccer (at least more so than other sports).
But the bottom line is -- if you bet numerous sides, you will almost certainly lose money. The 12.76 percent is tough to overcome. So, your reservations about betting World Cup matches is justified.
This is what I was trying to say in my first post, it just seemed to me the high vig (12.76%) would be murder to overcome in the long run.
So, the system is clearly geared to screw the public in World Cup soccer (at least more so than other sports).
But the bottom line is -- if you bet numerous sides, you will almost certainly lose money. The 12.76 percent is tough to overcome. So, your reservations about betting World Cup matches is justified.
This is what I was trying to say in my first post, it just seemed to me the high vig (12.76%) would be murder to overcome in the long run.
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I didn't hear you say any thing about vig in your original whine; you were complaining about the third selection involving the draw which has nothing to do with how much juice you are betting into.
And if you are betting into 12.76% lines when there are sites out there that offer 10-cent handicap lines then your problems are more than just trying to figure out what sport to bet on.
And if you are betting into 12.76% lines when there are sites out there that offer 10-cent handicap lines then your problems are more than just trying to figure out what sport to bet on.
Maverick --
what you seemed to miss is that the odds on a win go way up when they offer the choice of a draw.
That is, if you were just betting USA/Poland, you might get Poland +200, USA -220 and if they drew, you'd get your wager back. Some books do this.
With the draw added in, you might get
Poland +400
DRAW +200
USA -110
All those games you lost on draws, you were probably looking at those HUGE prices on the dogs so you jumped on them without understanding a draw lost.
You didn't lose your money because the juice is heavier on WC games. You lost it because you bet three way and rightly lost when the draw came in.
what you seemed to miss is that the odds on a win go way up when they offer the choice of a draw.
That is, if you were just betting USA/Poland, you might get Poland +200, USA -220 and if they drew, you'd get your wager back. Some books do this.
With the draw added in, you might get
Poland +400
DRAW +200
USA -110
All those games you lost on draws, you were probably looking at those HUGE prices on the dogs so you jumped on them without understanding a draw lost.
You didn't lose your money because the juice is heavier on WC games. You lost it because you bet three way and rightly lost when the draw came in.
hey maverick, jump on this:
PORTUGAL/SO. KOREA UNDER 1.5 2H
as close to a "lock" as you can get?
PORTUGAL/SO. KOREA UNDER 1.5 2H
as close to a "lock" as you can get? but, seriously...
but, seriously...
just kidding about the "lock", but am playing it myself. chances are late in the 2H both teams will cool it as long as USA is down. I see Korea is still trying to score given that they are playing at home.
Took me a while to figure international soccer rules, but I personally try to find value in dogs while getting a half-pt, point or more. At worst they lose by a goal and you still win or push. Try to follow the line movement and you'll see which dogs are getting action.
but, seriously...
just kidding about the "lock", but am playing it myself. chances are late in the 2H both teams will cool it as long as USA is down. I see Korea is still trying to score given that they are playing at home.
Took me a while to figure international soccer rules, but I personally try to find value in dogs while getting a half-pt, point or more. At worst they lose by a goal and you still win or push. Try to follow the line movement and you'll see which dogs are getting action.
the vig is not 12%. if you shop around for lines you can almost always cut the big down to 2-3% and once every few games you'll get arbitrage i.e. a GUARANTEED bet. For example Spain vs South Africa the other day the line was moving like crazy I managed to get Spain -0.5 @ $1.98 with one bookie and South Africa +0.5 @ $2.40 with another bookie (who was really slow adjusting prices). Free money no stress no hassles.
WOW!!!
That 2H was absolutely amazing. There were 4 or 5 chances for the total to go over. Whew! :shrug:
That 2H was absolutely amazing. There were 4 or 5 chances for the total to go over. Whew! :shrug:
Good point about shopping around.
While the vig is higher, the lines are not 'cloned' as they are in US sports so shopping around cuts the vig significantly.
It's perfectly normal for the vig to be higher on 3-ways, at least from a book's point of view. Offer 3-ways with a 3% vig and they will get slaughtered.
While the vig is higher, the lines are not 'cloned' as they are in US sports so shopping around cuts the vig significantly.
It's perfectly normal for the vig to be higher on 3-ways, at least from a book's point of view. Offer 3-ways with a 3% vig and they will get slaughtered.
It's a little understood fact that the addition of the third selection (the draw) is an advantage for the bettor. The reason for this is that it gives the bookmaker more chance to make a mistake. Let me show what I mean by way of example:
Say the bookmaker wants to set a soccer handicap line where there are only 2 selections, -0.5 for the favourite and then +0.5 for the underdog. Once he sets the line for the favourite the line for the dog then becomes locked in, determined by the vig that the book wants to charge. So if he decides the favourite is -0.5 -110 and he wants to set a 20-cent line (4.54% vig) then the dog automatically becomes +0.5 -110.
But now look what happens when you introduce the third option, that is, the draw. Say the favourite is still posted as -110 to win (same as -0.5 -110). Now the bookmaker has to further decide what the draw or the dog to win outright must be before the remaining lines may be set. This gives the bookmaker more chance to make an error in setting the lines, which is obviously of benefit to the player.
Say the bookmaker wants to set a soccer handicap line where there are only 2 selections, -0.5 for the favourite and then +0.5 for the underdog. Once he sets the line for the favourite the line for the dog then becomes locked in, determined by the vig that the book wants to charge. So if he decides the favourite is -0.5 -110 and he wants to set a 20-cent line (4.54% vig) then the dog automatically becomes +0.5 -110.
But now look what happens when you introduce the third option, that is, the draw. Say the favourite is still posted as -110 to win (same as -0.5 -110). Now the bookmaker has to further decide what the draw or the dog to win outright must be before the remaining lines may be set. This gives the bookmaker more chance to make an error in setting the lines, which is obviously of benefit to the player.
Czech and others have made good points, which I probably should have addressed to give a more comprehensive reply to the original question. The 12.76 percent vig applies to three-way bets at both Olympic and Millenium (where I have accounts), I know there are better books that offer better prices, including some special situations and options that others have described here. So, by shopping around you can make WC betting a viable investment.
-- ND
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