Is it possible to bet the other way?

[Mickstr68]

I'm serious!

I've been reading quite a few of the past and current posts by all those at MadJacks. I must admit that I lurked around the site for a year before I ever registered and I've even chimed in time to time my selections with mixed results. Honestly though, in the past year I've had more losers than winners. And I hate that! Who likes to post their picks and the majority of the time be wrong, especially where the public can see it. Everyone likes to be right.

In fact the only reason I was able to stay in the black last year was because of a few people that I watched from MadJacks. Nolan, IE, BarFly and Fletcher. Many thanks to those four!!! I'm not saying they were the only ones I kept an eye on, there are several other who helped me, however they were the primary four.

I didn't win a whole lot last year- approx 750, but if it wasn't for watching the posters at Madjack, I would have lost approx. 4 dimes on my own. That's a nice chunk of change. What a difference!

Latley, there have been several posts talking about a supposed fact that only 3% of the sports betting population will make money. There has even been talk on if it is or isn't possible to wager on sports as your full means of income. Without this site I would have been one of the 97% of the losers. So I pose the question-

IS IT POSSIBLE TO BET THE OTHER WAY?

In other words, is it possible to do all the homework you like to do, no matter how big or small. Pick the teams you like according to the spread. Write them all down and then call the book and go the other way?

Seems logical that if 97% of the people lose that all you would have to do is go the other way.

Or if you practice this, does the fact that you are going to go the other way, enter into your mind while you are picking your winners, thus messing up the whole decision process?

[This message has been edited by Mickstr68 (edited 08-01-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Mickstr68 (edited 08-01-2001).]

 

[Nick Douglas]

I have a couple of friends who tried that and it just gets messed up because your thought process is not pure. If you legitimately thought that you were trying to pick winners then it might be an interesting idea but knowning that you will bet the opposite way, it just won't be the same.

I do have one thing to add, though. My brother is not a large bettor by any means. He only bets on what he calls "sucker bets". He looks at the lines, sees a game where the line looks impossibly easy to beat, and then bets the other way. This generally gives him a lot of small home dogs and large home faves.

When he looks at lines, something like Sacramento -2 at Houston will seem like easy money on Sac, so he will bet Houston. Same if it is like, Vikings -9 over Saints in last year's playoff game. The line seemed way too high at first glance so he bet the fave anyway.

I know he has made money at it but he is not a serious gambler so he doesn't bet a lot of action. Just something to consider.

 

[Anders]

Mick - you may want to have a look at a wee experiment I'm trying in the baseball forum.

Following a similar suggestion from Jack; I decided I would pick every game on the card when I could and see if fading those picks would make money.

Haven't had time to check yesterday's results yet but previously I was "up" around $800, playing $100 a unit.

Obviously, there are many potential flaws in this experiment and I hope to explain the ins and outs when I get a bit more time.

Basically, I believe I belong in a category of "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" when it comes to baseball. I spend 5 mins making my picks, have a basic understanding of how good/bad the respective pitches/teams are; and accordingly, tend to play the heavy chalk mostly.

Just early days but it could yet throw up some interesting results.

Thread line is "Jack's Guinea Pig"

Hope it helps

 

[Mickstr68]

I'll check it out- thanks!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Mick I can definately relate to what Nick said.I haven't capped my own NCAA foots in several years for primary reason I was mediocre at best and went to basically capping cappers since 92 with much better success.After bout 3 years I had my horses(cappers)set and one critria was if one of them had a side I absolutely hated I would throw game out.The 1st year it seemed every one I threw out was a winner and decided in 96 to keep tabs of those I discounted under that scenerio.They won at a little over 69% clip.
Learned my lesson and tossed aside that part of final determintaion of plays and probably added a net 2% to win/loss ratio for college foots season.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
would also like to say I am of the opinion the most deterent factor in being successful wagering on sports aside from poor money management is emotion.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 08-01-2001).]

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 08-01-2001).]

 

[djv]

Years ago. There was a capper that was very honest. I tryed to remember the name sorry I cant. But I know he was from Detroit. I and a friend bought his service. Give you idea how long ago this was his service cost 20 bucks a season. He stayed with NFL for the most part. However would have a couple college plays each week. Well I did'nt know chit about this stuff in 66. So anything was better then nothing as I was learning. His ideas on picking winners was as discussed here. He felt he had tryed for a few years and never came out on the plus side. So he advised everyone to go against any picks he had. First year he was around 53%. The second year was close to 60% I remember this because we thought he was nuts.. We were already for the third year. But he just up and died or something had to happen. We never seen another thing about the service or received anything in the mail again. He also was the first guy that ever mentioned the words bank roll and money management. He would have a small write up on why you should play the game. Then would say remember reverse it. So my bud and myself said ok he's gone we can do this. Well it ant that easy. You talk your self with hard work into why you should play a game. Then say reverse it. We would have hit 57% that year with out reversing it. So yes we hit only 43% by reversing it. That was the end to that. My bud does not do this anymore. But we talked about this earlier. I have told him many times join and have some fun. No im busy. I told him reverse it.

.
I remember his name Nelson. I believe he called it Doc Nelson sports.

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 08-03-2001).]

 

[Mickstr68]

Three years ago I had a guy I worked with how lost all the time. I'm not kidding, all the time. He would call me sunday morning and discuss the games with me and tell me what he was betting.

He only bet three or four games a week but would lost 3 or 4 of them practically every week. I wouldn't bet the other side of all the games he liked, but if he liked a game I liked I would go the other way, and most of the time would win on that switch.

I'm just wondering if anyone else had tried this for a full season before and how it worked out. I'm imagining that no one really ever has because I would think that your mind would play games on you and you would start thinking that in the back of your mind you are changing the pick anyways.

 

[djv]

Mick, read the one above yours. There is three years worth.

 

[crazyjoe]

good stuff i am going to try it this year maybe i'll win this year.