Is it statistically worthwhile to target middles in NFL?

[dc]

One of the nice things about using offshores is the no muss, no fuss line shopping. One of the things I like to do is shop for middles. Usually earlier in the season seems to offer the better opportunities.

I usually try to middle around a line of 3, but occassionally will do a middle around a line of 7. These are usually smaller, side wager type of plays.

I've never tried to develop stats on these plays, so I don't know if they statistically offer good value. I mean, I guess I could look over the last season or two and try to find lines that closed at or near three, but it'd be hard to tell if there had been fluctuation above and below the number.

Has anyone else done any tracking on this kind of thing? IE, perhaps?

 

[Investment Executive]

move off "3" , forget about the rest.


for totals look to setup middles at halftime off these numbers/
"anything less than 31.0"
"34.5,36.5,37.5,41.5,47.0"
"anything more than 53"

 

[buckeye]

IE is correct on spreads, from what I have gathered. There are several good threads on the subject at other forums, ** and ** . www.thelogicalapproach.com has a write-up on buying half that gives some of the relevant #'s and %'s. The key, IMO, is how many games lined at that # actually fall on it. 3 is the only solid #, 10 has a better track record than 7, but they pale in comparison to 3. That is why so many outs go to extended $ lines off the spread on 3 to keep from getting middled, and make you pay more to buy off it! It is that powerful!

IE,
What do you mean by setting up halftime middles on those #'s? Do you mean IF you played the total look to middle off your original play? Fill me in on what you mean, I'm dense!

 

[4bubba]

dc & everyone,
There is a TREMENDOUS answer to your question and its on this site. It is a MUST read.
I just noticed it today. Go to:
FOOTBALL RESOURCES
Then to the very last line on the page.
HOW GOOD IS THE LINESMAKER IN THE NFL
Great article.

------------------
indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[dc]

Appreciate the replies, guys. Thanks, also, buckeye and 4bubba for pointing me toward that thread and the article.

I've just intuitively gone after middles on the 3, thinking it was the most common ending spread in the NFL. Seems like it's worth the vig to take a shot. Might keep track this season to see how they work out.

I've got two of them this week...middled around the 3 on Oak/KC and NOrleans/Buff. If just one of them comes in it'll have made the play worthwhile.

Thanks again for the advice.

-dc

 

[Investment Executive]

Bubba, every link i put up on the page i tried to bring out a message or specific reason behind it so that link might improve a bettors handicapping knowledge....thanks for bringing it up....your sharp

....i will also be adding lots more in the coming weeks.

Buckeye, cap it off the orginal numbers for the halftime middle...thats about all i want to say at this point....the question was asked what numbers....i said my opinion...thats about it from me...sorry.



[This message has been edited by Investment Executive (edited 09-09-2001).]

 

[Investment Executive]

also,,,,although andy's numbers were good...don't get outdated as a handicapper...in any sport.

 

[willypower]

Hey dc

I as well middled NO and Buffalo and this morning got INDY and Jets middled. With certain bonuses from certain sportsbooks you won't even lose the vig.

Here's hoping

 

[dc]

Well...don't know about "statistical" value, but that KC/Oak middle sure felt good to my bankroll. Made a lot more on it than on my sides play so far today.

Guess I should look at it kinda like a parlay. That is, minimal cash outlay compared to a much larger return. Except, I think my odds of hitting on the 3 spread is probably better...at least in the NFL.

Thanks again for all the input.

-dc