no you're not drunk. scoring is down... but oddly enough!!!! the over has been the profitable side of the total so far this year.
AL ov-Un 244-260
mostly due to TB's extremely slow start offensively, their solid pitching and good D. NYY's sputtering offense. Minnesota's terrible offense. not helping is some bad D and TERRIBLE bullpen showings from seattle.
NL ov-Un 310-266
... don't ask me. no f'n clue what's going on. w/ exception of Halladay+JJ, most marquee matchups drawing 7.5 and 7 lines are going over at a huge clip. seen way more double digits on the NL side, a lot thanks to terrible bullpen showings, but mostly, just IT'S BASEBALL!
as an unders player, i've found this maddening. some stats for ya since i keep them and have em at my fingertips:
over plays with 75%+ backing: 53.25%...
only 12! teams are under teams to date in 2011. 19 of 30 finished to the under side, as it should be, since 50.5-51% of games will go under in a typical season.
from my own personal plays:
1.5-run U-ov 15-7
1-run U-ov 13-12
.5-run U-ov 15-13
my under system spreadsheet tallies these for me. the .5-run U-ov should ideally be near 60%, since winning unders is about the margins and being on the right side of the hook a lot of the time. this number started 7-7, then went to 13-9, now sits (admittedly, better than being on the over side) 15-13. same story with the 1-run games. the 1.5-run games are less significant but it's good to not see some weird number near .500 which would mean most of the losses were to bullpen blowups or an inordinate number of close and tie games.
