is there a best conference for a beginning capper to look at

[gaines]

basically the subject says it all. i am tired of betting just to make the games more fun to watch, and i want to become a true sports gambler. i want to learn to cap my own games and really analyze before i just throw money on a team. is there an "easier" conference to start with? also what are some good sites with unbiased information?

thanks to anyone willing to take the time to help a newb.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Start with the one that you enjoy, the one that you'll be reading about anyway. Big XII has really played to form the past two years, so if that's what you're into, I would start with that one.

 

[gaines]

yes the big 12 is what i enjoy the most since i am a student at the univ of nebraska, but i dont want the emotion get in the way of the smart bet....i dont know if you guys who have been doing this for a while still have favorite teams, but it is no fun to bet against them and cheer against them. maybe the emotion is something i have to work to loose.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

yes the big 12 is what i enjoy the most since i am a student at the univ of nebraska, but i dont want the emotion get in the way of the smart bet....i dont know if you guys who have been doing this for a while still have favorite teams, but it is no fun to bet against them and cheer against them. maybe the emotion is something i have to work to loose.

SPORTS CAPPING 101

LESSON ONE:

Bet with your head, not with your heart.

 

[NY Reb]

Focus on the conference you know best. As for betting on a particular team, the trick is knowing which games they are "up" for. If you can get info regarding their expected level of intensity, you'll know when to back them and when not to.

 

[BuckWheat]

Oklahoma St.+14@Nebraska

Oklahoma St.+14@Nebraska

I think this is one of the strongest plays on the Board for the first week of games. Capp it, see what you think.

 

[Iowa Child]

I would agree with that Buck. Where are you finding a line on that game?

 

[gaines]

my initial numbers

my initial numbers

Nebraska

3-4 ATS 1st Home game the last 7 yrs
4-7 ATS Last yr
-----------------------------------------------------------
Averaged
269 yds rushing per game last yr
5.2 yds per carry
105 yds passing last yr
14 yds per catch
-------------------------------------------------------------
Vs. Oklahoma State last yr
195 yds rushing
4.64 yds per carry
192 yds passing
11.3 yds per catch
-----------------------------------------------------------
Average Allowed (defense)
154 yds rushing per game last yr
3.87 yds per carry
207 yds passing per game last yr
13.2 yds per catch
-----------------------------------------------------------
Take aways minus give aways last yr = 0
Returning 12 starters from last season



Oklahoma State

4-3 ATS 1st Home game the last 7 yrs
7-4 ATS Last yr
-----------------------------------------------------------
Averaged
145 yds rushing per game last yr
4.25 yds per carry
259 yds passing last yr
14 yds per catch
-------------------------------------------------------------
Vs. Nebraska last yr
259 yds rushing
4.8 yds per carry
110 yds passing
15.7 yds per catch
-----------------------------------------------------------
Average Allowed (defense)
147 yds rushing per game last yr
3.56 yds per carry
258 yds passing per game last yr
12.3 yds per catch
-----------------------------------------------------------
Take aways minus give aways last yr = -2
Returning 14 starters from last season



here is what i have so far...let me know what info is good and what is useless and what other info i need to dig up. i know this isnt it, just wanted a check up on my progress.

thanks guys

 

[formertexan]

Gaines-
This is my first year too of handicapping, instead of just bets with friends. Highly recommend the Phil Steele CFB preview. I've learned so much from what he writes and it has helped me apply his theories to my own theories from what I've learned watching college football all my life. All the other mags I've seen really don't have the statistical information nor do they explain much for the beginning capper.

As for conferences, the lesser-known ones (AKA mid-majors) generally provide good value. I remember getting a kick from some of the lines back for C-USA when I covered TCU last year for a newspaper. I'll definitely be tracking the league closely this year.

Definitely don't bet on any teams you've got allegiance too, if it'll make the game less fun for you.

Good luck!!

 

[hawkeye]

Iowa Child--Where in Iowa are you from?

 

[BuckWheat]

Mathimatically capping the game

Mathimatically capping the game

Nebraska's Offense is 0.9% below League Average
OSU's Deffense allows 5.9% more yards than the League Avg.
Nebraska's Offense should produce 5% more yardage than the League Average against OSU's Deffense

OSU's Offense plays 9.3% above League Average
Nebraska's Deffense allows 4% fewer yards than the League Avg.
OSU should produce 5.3% more yardage than the League Average against Nebraska's Defense

This let's me know, that these two teams should be rather evenly matched

I also compare the two teams points per 100 yards offensively and deffensively, and calculate a predicted score

Because both teams are in the same conference, I'll look at their standings within the conference. Also look at returning starters.
I think that the QB and Linemen are more important returners than any other positions.

Something that a lot of cappers don't look at, which I think is critical for the first few weeks of the year, is Special Teams.

 

[Escrow_Tum]

Wheat, good stuff.

These teams are very evenly matched for the exception that OSU has 3 playmakers and NU only has 1.

Right now I see a close close game. The points look tasty.