It is time To remind everyone.

[djv]

Last 10 weeks of NFL those home dogs park at about 57%. It;s been going on for years. WHY?
There several reasons.. All I know a very good old time capper told me about this about 20 years ago.

 

[djv]

IM SORRY I had fat fingers It IS 55%
NOT 57%.

 

[michaeljbird]

Not sure what your old friends reasons for this were. But I know that the later weeks especially the last couple the model is even stronger. Dogs of 8 points or more even stronger. I view it as market bias, to use a investment term. The Sell High , Buy Low mentality. Later in the season, the better and weaker teams have been established in public perception. So the is an over inflation of opening AND closing lines based on that perception. So the VALUE lies in the dog theoretically . In my opinion this is when the contrarian plays hit at a much higher percentage. Just my 2 cents.......and some will say that OVER valued ! LMFAO

 

[djv]

MJBird, You are on the right track. It also has to do with injurys to key players and some what the schedule.
You might also know to pay attention to Fav at home 3 to 7,5 area. The last I had on thiis Dog covers 53%.

 

[IE]

since week 1, 2010

home dogs are:

SU: 79-127-0
ATS: 107-92-7
O/U: 113-87-6

 

[thomas_howard]

since week 1, 2010

home dogs are:

SU: 79-127-0
ATS: 107-92-7
O/U: 113-87-6

O/U # is interesting..never heard that before..but a live dog often leads to an over!

 

[grandemush]

I follow a system that was given to me by a now 84 year old, who's been betting since the NFL began, and he was given it by someone a long time ago.

This system sounds crazy beyond reach, but it has been $ for the 6 years that I've been following it, losing once that I can remember two or three years ago, and it doesn't come around a ton but when it does it's dead on, and I have NO IDEA WHY.

System is this:

NY Post opening lines (and ONLY NY Post) of 5, 5.5 or 12, 12.5, play is the dog.

If the dog is home, your normal bet is double.

I've never kept stats on it or anything like that, I just bet it and it's money. Last week, the Giants & Bills both fit the system.

This week, Jacksonville fits it and I dont know how I'm going to play them but the system is the system :scared :scared

 

[Jord20]

What about Rams?

 

[Mr Rattler]

I have always made it a point to look closely at 5 or 5.5 point dogs. It is an in between number that gives you the perception that the favorite is a "comfortable favorite". They just need to win by a TD, 1 score. In reality, 5 to 5.5 is a lot of points in the NFL.

I will have to start paying more attention to the 12, 12.5 spreads, since I'm usually not crazy about double digit NFL games.

Good Post

 

[djv]

Very interesting. It,s strange you mention 5/5.5, this is my fav number to TEZ the dog 6 point. Thru the years its won a lot $$.